Wed 28/01/2015 - 23:22 EST

Analyzing Russell Wilson Super Bowl XLIX Props

Analyzing Russell Wilson Super Bowl XLIX Props
Seahawks third-year quarterback Russell Wilson is the youngest quarterback in league history to reach two Super Bowls, beating out his counterpart in Sunday's Super Bowl XLIX, Tom Brady. So clearly Wilson is going to get a huge contract extension this offseason now that he's eligible. But a big game and a repeat title for Seattle will add even a few more million to Wilson's pockets.

Let’s take a look at his props for Super Bowl XLIX from Bovada and Sportsbook.ag. Wilson is the 7/2 second-favorite to Brady to win Super Bowl MVP honors. Wilson played well enough to win it last season in the blowout of Denver, going an efficient 18-for-25 for 206 yards, two touchdowns and no interceptions while rushing three times for 26 yards. He didn’t turn the ball over. Wilson was beat out for MVP honors by linebacker Malcolm Smith, who returned an interception for a touchdown and also recovered a fumble to go with 10 tackles. You can bet on 2015 Wilson’s rushing yards at -14.5 against those 26 against Denver and Wilson’s passing yards Sunday at -13.5 against those 206 vs. the Broncos. That Wilson will have only his second 300-yard game of the season is a +525 long shot with no he will not at -850. Wilson surely will be MVP if he has 100 yards rushing, which he has done three times this year.  That pays out at +700 for yes but -1400 for no. Wilson is 6/1 to score Seattle’s first touchdown of the game but that  has to come on a rush (or reception). He has six rushing touchdowns during the regular season and one in the NFC title game vs. Green Bay. You can get Wilson at -17.5 passing yards (at-125) against the average national gas price in the United States the day after the Super Bowl (in cents). Currently the average price is around $2.04. Thus you can’t imagine it will be higher than $2.10 on Monday so Wilson would need throw for only 228 yard to win this prop. Bovada lists Wilson’s totals at 219.5 passing yards (over -125 favorite), 27.5 pass attempts (over -125 favorite), 17.5 completions (over -125 favorite) and 1.5 TD passes (over -125 favorite). Wilson has had more than 27.5 pass attempts just twice in the past five games. He has topped that completions number just once in the past five. Wilson has had more than one TD pass in  just four of the past 12 games. You can also get Wilson on two cross-sport props for NHL games on Sunday: Wilson’s pass attempts vs. the saves by Montreal’s Carey Price and Wilson’s TD passes against the total points for Pittsburgh’s Sidney Crosby. The Canadiens play the second of a back-to-back on Sunday vs. Arizona so there’s a chance Price doesn’t play. He averages about 28 saves per game.  Crosby is tied for fifth in the NHL with 51 points, or about 1.2 per game. He faces Nashville on Sunday. When the Penguins beat the Predators 3-0 early this season, Crosby had a goal and two assists.

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