Fri 23/01/2015 - 22:00 EST

Analyzing Tom Brady Props For Super Bowl XLIX

Analyzing Tom Brady Props For Super Bowl XLIX
To no surprise whatsoever, Patriots quarterback Tom Brady is the 7/4 favorite at Bovada to win his third Super Bowl MVP Award, which would tie Joe Montana -- a guy Brady is most compared to -- for the most in league history.

In Brady’s first Super Bowl, XXXVI, he led a 20-17 upset of the heavily favored St. Louis Rams by leading a last-minute game-winning drive. Brady completed 5 of 6 passes on the 53-yard drive, including three to J.R. Redmond. The key strike of the drive was “Max 64 All In,” designed for New England’s offensive line to provide maximum protection while Brady waits for receiver Troy Brown to free himself underneath. The Patriots’ line played it to the max, and Brown made the catch, going out of bounds after a 23-yard gain to the Rams’ 36 with 21 seconds remaining. Brady next found Jermaine Wiggins for a 6-yard gain to the Rams’ 30, from where Adam Vinatieri won the game with a 48-yard field goal. Brady finished completing 16 of 27 passes for 145 yards and a touchdown, numbers not normally associated with Super Bowl MVPs. Two years later, Brady led another game-winning drive in a 32-29 win over Carolina in Super Bowl XXXVIII. Brady had 32 completions in 48 attempts for 354 yards and three touchdowns. The 32 completions broke a Super Bowl record that Jim Kelly had set at 31 in Super Bowl XXVIII against Dallas. The Patriots got a huge break when, after Carolina had tied the game at 29, John Kasay sent a kickoff out of bounds that started New England on their 40 with 1:08 remaining. Brady simply tossed completion after completion against one of the NFL’s best defenses. The 37-yard drive put them in position to score their 15th consecutive victory, which Adam Vinatieri delivered with his winning 41-yard field goal. Bovada gives Brady game totals against Seattle at 260.5 passing yards (over -130 favorite), 35.5 passing attempts (over -130 favorite), 23.5 completions (over -130 favorite),  a longest completion of 37.5 yard (over -125 favorite), 1.5 TD passes (over -175 favorite), 1.5 interceptions (under -230 favorite) and a whopping 3.5 rushing yards (over -130 favorite). Those are all pretty optimistic numbers even though Brady is facing the NFL’s No. 1 overall and top passing defense. That Brady has a rushing touchdown in the game is +700 with no at -1400. That Brady throws for 300 or more yards is +170, with no at -210. You can even get Brady’s total touchdown passes in a cross-sport bet with an English Premier Soccer League game between Arsenal and Aston Villa on Super Bowl  Sunday, with Brady getting +.5 at even money. In Brady’s last Super Bowl three years ago, a 21-17 upset loss to the New York Giants, he was 27 of 41 for 276 yards, two touchdowns and an interception. That Giants defense wasn’t close to as good as this Seahawks one. On the Super Bowl historical props, you get Brady at +15.5 yards in this game and +3.5 completions, both at -115 on Bovada.

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