Gary | Wed 22/03/2017 - 01:27 EDT

March Madness Sweet 16 Odds Comparison

Sweet 16 Predictions

By Dan Favale

North Carolina (-7.5) vs. Butler (+7.5)

Over/Under: 153

unc

North Carolina nearly faltered against Arkansas in the Round of 32, but we can't dismiss them now. Their offense is too good, and they've showed signs of life on the defensive end.

Butler has the offensive chops to hang with this squad, and they, too, have exhibited an ability to lock down when it matters most.

Ultimately, North Carolina should win, but their performance against Arkansas was a red flag we have to account for in the spread.

The Pick: Butler (+7.5), under

 

Kentucky vs. UCLA (pick 'em)

Over/Under: 165.5

Offense meets defense is this Sweet 16 date. 

Kentucky has gotten here by turning every game into a grind, while UCLA's high-octane offense has lived up to its billing. Though this contest is a pick 'em, FiveThirtyEight's prediction model gives Kentucky a 68 percent chance winning. That's too large a gap to ignore.

Defense takes this one.

The Pick: Kentucky, under

 

Baylor (-3.5) vs. South Carolina (+3.5)

Over/Under: 135

odds

Defense is more important this late into the tournament, but this over/under is quite absurd. Neither Baylor nor South Carolina has been in a low-scoring affair anemic enough to make you think the under is a relative possibility.

Not one of these two teams is averaging even 75 points per game for the season, but they've been scoring more of late. It's gut-check time, and the gut says to roll with the over in what figures to be a snail-paced affair.

The Pick: Baylor (-3.5), over

 

Florida (-2) vs. Wisconsin (+2)

Over/Under: 131.5

Talk about your impending slug fests.

This game is basically a coin toss, even though Florida, with a No. 4 spot, possesses a noticeably better seed than Wisconsin, who is slotted at No. 8. But it's Wisconsin that boasts the more balanced attack. They have the potential to hang more points while matching Florida's defensive intensity. That makes them very dangerous.

The Pick: Wisconsin (+2), over

 

Arizona (-7.5) vs. Xavier (+7.5)

Over/Under: 145

Can Xavier's Cinderella run continue? It's possible.

They have pummeled two better seeds themselves, in Florida and Maryland. They have momentum on their side. They also have the benefit of facing an Arizona squad that's wildly consistent on the offensive end.

With neither of these teams boasting truly elite point-piling machines, the relatively low over/under makes sense. Still, it's almost too low. Only one of the four total games played between the two this tournament finished with final scores under 145.

The Pick: Xavier (+7.5), over 

 

Gonzaga (-3.5) vs. West Virginia (+3.5)

Over/Under: 148.5

Gonzaga, one of the tournament's No. 1 seeds, is not having an easy go at things. They slaughtered South Dakota St. in the first round, as expected, but Northwestern put up one helluva fight in Round 2.

West Virginia poses a different, more terrifying challenge. They play fast and free on the offensive end, priding themselves on superior decision-making. And they champion this play style while placing fifth in points allowed per 100 possessions.

This game is officially on upset watch.

The Pick: West Virginia (+3.5), over

 

Kansas (-5.5) vs. Purdue (+5.5)

kansas

Over/Under: 156.5

Kansas has absolutely steamrolled their way into the Sweet 16. They won their first two games, against UC Davis and Michigan State by an average of 19 points, while hanging no less 90 points in either contest.

That this line isn't bigger is a testament to the defense Purdue has played. But this game isn't projected to be close.

According to FiveThirtyEight's prediction model, Kansas has a 70 percent chance of winning. And given how they've played in their two other wins, we should bank on this victory coming by at least six points.

The pick: Kansas (-5.5), over

 

Michigan (-1) vs. Oregon (+1)

Over/Under: 146.5

It makes sense that this game is basically a pick 'em competition. These two squads, on paper, are very evenly matched. Michigan made their name with a hyper-efficient offense, while Oregon is more balanced, ranking inside the top 25 of both offensive and defensive efficiency.

Your first urge should be to bet on Oregon. But this is one of those times where you should probably resist. Michigan has faced stiffer competition to this point, while Oregon showed signs of cracking in their almost-loss to Rhode Island during the Round of 32.

The Pick: Michigan (-1), over

Results / FixturesNCAAB
 

Category : Sports Betting News

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