Life isn't so rosy for the Tampa Bay Buccaneers entering Week 5 of the 2022 NFL season.
Two consecutive losses has many doubting whether they're the Super Bowl contender most originally expected to be. This skepticism is so prevalent that their odds to win the Super Bowl have already started shifting.
Fortunately for the Bucs, they're hosting the Atlanta Falcons in Week 5, on Sunday, October 9, at 1 p.m. EST. That should ensure they get back in the win column. But is there still cause for concern? And more immediately, can the Tampa Bay Buccaneers cover the point spread against the Falcons? And should you bet the over or the under?
We have answers to everything. But let's first have a look at the latest NFL online betting odds, courtesy of BetOnline:
|Tampa Bay Buccaneers||-355||+285||Atlanta Falcons|
Please note that our betting odds on the Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs. Atlanta Falcons are accurate entering Tuesday, October 4. If you're placing your wager anytime thereafter, you'll want to double-check these football betting lines. Sportsbooks will move them between now and the opening kickoff, even if only slightly
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This Should be an Easy Win for the Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Plenty of people are hitting the panic button for the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. That feels premature. Or is it?
It isn't just about who the Bucs have lost to so far. Racking up Ls against the Green Bay Packers and Kansas City Chiefs isn't inherently terrible. But both letdowns came at home. And more importantly, Tampa Bay's offense has not looked great in the aggregate.
At 20.5 points per game, the Bucs are 16th in points scored. And that ranking might overstate their placement. The 31 points they dropped against the Chiefs in Week 4 significantly drives up that ranking.
But that's also part of the point. The Chiefs have elite talent and schemes on the defensive end. It's a legitimately big deal that the Buccaneers were able to top 30 points against them. Furthermore, it's hardly a fool's errand to believe that quarterback Tom Brady will settle down. As it stands, the Bucs never throw interceptions (they rank first in that department), and they're now up to 11th in passing touchdowns.
Failing an offensive resurgence, Tampa Bay always has their defense. They are fifth in points allowed and have one of the most dangerous secondaries in existence. Holding off an Atlanta Falcons team that's already reluctant to pass the ball with Marcus Mariota under center shouldn't be much of an issue, even if the Falcons are able to make some waves on the ground.
OSB Prediction: Tampa Bay Buccaneers (-355)
Is the Point Spread to High for the Bucs to Cover in Week 5?
Here are the latest NFL point spread betting odds for Bucs vs. Falcons:
- Tampa Bay Buccaneers, -8 (-115)
- Atlanta Falcons, +8 (-105)
Eight points feels like a large spread for the Buccaneers to cover given how topsy-turvy the offense has been so far. But then you dig into the details, and it doesn't seem so large after all.
Atlanta ranks 22nd in net yards allowed per passing attempt and 25th in points surrendered per game. The Bucs struggle to make use of their downfield options, in large part because Tom Brady doesn't have the arm strength anymore. But he's still wired to carve up loosey-goosey defenses with his short game, and the Falcons aren't very creative with their coverages over the middle of the field.
In the end, this still comes down to whether you believe in the Bucs from last week. If you think their offense is closer to what it was against Kansas City than what it was against the Green Bay Packers in Week 3, then choosing them to cover is an easy decision.
OSB Prediction: Tampa Bay Buccaneers, -8 (-115)
Will the Tampa Bay Buccaneers and Atlanta Falcons Clear the Over in Week 5?
Check out the latest NFL over/under betting odds for Falcons vs. Buccaneers below:
- Over 48.5 (-110)
- Under 48.5 (-110)
A big part of us is drawn towards the under. We don't trust the Falcons offense. They're too reliant on the run game, since they don't want to saddle quarterback Marcus Mariota with too much usage.
At the same time, the Falcons are still eighth in points scored per game, at 25.8. And it's not like they've faced only cupcake defenses. They dropped 27 points in a Week 2 loss to the Los Angeles Rams, and they have not scored fewer than 23 points on the season.
Going up against the Buccaneers defense will be a different test, but Tampa Bay has shown a willingness to concede production on the ground in favor of protecting against the pass. Atlanta should be able to sniff the 20-point mark as a direct result.
And assuming the Falcons get there, we're good trusting the Bucs to drop 30 points. It's something Tampa Bay has only done once this season, but as we've alluded to already, theirs is an offense we expect to continue climbing up the leaderboard. Pounding the over makes a ton of sense here. This is a game that should rise past 50 combined points, in our estimation.
OSB Prediction: Over 48.5 (-110)
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