Are the Miami Dolphins Doomed vs. the New York Jets in Week 5 without Tua Tagovailoa?

Are the Miami Dolphins Doomed vs. the New York Jets in Week 5 without Tua Tagovailoa?

After an impressive start to the 2022 NFL season, the Miami Dolphins are now getting written off by many football experts entering their Week 5 matchup with the New York Jets on Sunday, October 9, at 1:30 p.m. EST. Naturally, we have to ask: What gives?

The answer, as it turns out, is fairly obvious. Quarterback Tua Tagovailoa has been ruled out for the Miami Dolphins' Week 5 tilt with New York after entering NFL concussion protocols. Not only will he miss Sunday's competition, but the team has yet to provide a concrete timetable for his return to action.

There are bigger-picture questions to tackle about the future of the Dolphins. For now, however, we care only about whether they can pull out a victory against the Jets without Tagovailoa under center.

Before we dive write in, let's have a look at the latest NFL online betting odds for Dolphins vs. Jets, courtesy of the folks at BetUS:

FavoriteBetUSBetUSUnderdog
Miami Dolphins-166+140New York Jets

Please remember to double-check these Miami Dolphins betting odds until you actually submit your wager. All of our football betting lines are accurate entering Tuesday, October 4, so sportsbooks are bound to make some tweaks between then and kickoff.

Also, anyone searching for a place to bet on the NFL needs to immediately check out our reviews of the top online sportsbooks. The information we've compiled there more than adequately arms you with the ability to identity the best 2022 online betting sites for the NFL.

The Miami Dolphins Can Squeak Out a Win vs. the New York Jets without Tua Tagovailoa

Losing Tua Tagovailoa is a massive blow for the Miami Dolphins. Of course, you can say that about any team soldiering on without their starting quarterback. But Tua was in the middle of a breakout year. 

Through the first few weeks of the season, Miami boasted one of the most dangerous offenses in the league. Even now, after their Week 4 loss to the Cincinnati Bengals, they rank in the top five of both passing yards and touchdowns.

Maintaining that pace now, with a backup, will be difficult. Then again, Teddy Bridgewater is a solid second-stringer. And though he struggled during his action against the Bengals, the Jets don't have the same brand of defense.

In fact, the Jets don't have much of a defense at all. They're currently 25th in points allowed per game. Though they do rank fifth in interceptions, their turnover-chasing comes at the expense of blown coverages. New York ranks 18th in passing touchdowns allowed and a ghastly 24th in net yards allowed per passing attempt.

Some might see value in betting against the Dolphins' own defense. They have one of the worst passing defenses in the league, if not the absolute worst. But the Jets aren't fielding an elite quarterback under center. Sophomore Zach Wilson is only making his second start of the season, and Miami's front seven is more than equipped to make him uncomfortable.

OSB Prediction: Miami Dolphins (-178)

Miami Dolphins To beat the New York Jets
-178
BetUS

Should we Trust the Dolphins to Cover the Point Spread Against the Jets?

Here's a look at the latest NFL Week 5 points spread betting odds for Dolphins vs. Jets:

  • Miami Dolphins, -3.5 (-105)
  • New York Jets, +3.5 (+115)

From where we're standing, this point spread looks like a gift.

Indeed, the Dolphins could struggle to score, even in victory. But picking up a four-point win isn't that egregious—not with their big-play potential. Rival teams would kill for a downfield threat like Tyreek Hill or Jaylen Waddle. The Dolphins have both of them.

There is also the Jets' own questionable offense to consider. They haven't hesitated to air it out this year, including before Wilson's season debut. But New York ranks 26th in interceptions thrown and 25 in net passing yards per attempt.

Even if the Dolphins win this one while scoring fewer than 21 points, they should still be able to cover.

OSB Prediction: Miami Dolphins, -3.5 (-105)

Miami Dolphins To cover vs. the New York Jets
-105
BetUS

Is the Over or Under the Better NFL Week 5 Bet for Miami vs. New York?

Check out the latest NFL over/under betting odds for Jets vs. Dolphins in Week 5:

  • Over 44.5 (-110)
  • Under 44.5 (-110)

Smashing the over would make a lot more sense here if Dolphins had Tua under center. It still isn't quite clear how much agency they'll give Bridgewater.

Granted, it stands to reason he'll have the green light, otherwise they risk marginalizing two star wide receivers. But expecting them to top 25 points is a pretty big reach.

As for the Jets, this is only Wilson's second game of the season. And he's only a sophomore. He is up against a steep learning curve. The Dolphins passing defense might be forgiving, but it's not a turnstile.

It helps that the Jets offense calls for a ton of passing this year, but that passing game hasn't looked efficient through four games. This feels like a game that will be punctuated by empty drives galore—and a combined score under 45 points.

OSB Prediction: Under 44.5 (-110)

Dolphins and Jets To score under 44.5 points combined
-110
BetUS

Take a look at this list of the top online sportsbooks so you can decide which one to use for all of your NFL betting:

Meet the author

Dan Favale

Dan is a sports betting writer who can tackle any topic from presidential elections to changes in the sports betting legislation federally and on the state level. He also writes picks for NFL.