NFL Conference Finals 2021 Betting Picks

NFL Conference Finals 2021 Betting Picks

Check out our 2021 NFL Conference Finals picks!

And then there were four.

After a drama-filled divisional round weekend, the NFL is moving into the conference championship portion of its playoff bracket. In the AFC, we have a matchup between the Buffalo Bills and Kansas City Chiefs. In the NFC, it will be the Tampa Bay Buccaneers and New Orleans Saints. And you better believe we have your 2021 NFL conference finals picks right here.

Before we get to them, though, let's check the latest odds, courtesy of BetOnline:  

Kansas City Chiefs-156+136Buffalo Bills
Green Bay Packers-167+192Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Like always, these NFL playoff odds will move between now and kickoff. Make sure you're double-checking them before deciding on any wagers. Now, on to the picks!

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  • 2021 NFL Conference Finals Betting Breakdown

    Let's begin with the NFC Conference championship.

    Green Bay Packers (-167) vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers (+192)

    There still seems to be a flash-in-the-pan element to the Packers. They have the league's No. 1 offense yet remain incredibly dependent on the quarterback and likely 2020 NFL MVP Aaron Rodgers. With a mediocre defense backing them up, this success doesn't feel sustainable.

    And yet, the Packers aren't here by accident. They have shown a unique ability to navigating the landscape. Their run game is stronger than advertised. Aaron Jones made plenty of huge plays for them in their convincing win over the Los Angeles Rams.

    Having a strong ground game only opens up things for Rodgers. He is as dangerous as anyone out of playactions. He's also lethal when he has time to throw, which the offensive line has done a great job of giving him. Tampa Bay's defense is going to be put under a lot of strain.

    Let's also not forget how dominant the Packers have been at Lambeau Field thus far. They are now 8-1, with a margin of victory that checks in at 13 points. Not only that, but Tampa Bay is used to playing in warmer situations. It is going to be freezing in Green Bay.

    This isn't to say you should rule out the Bucs. In fact, we're decidedly against it. Their defense finished the season eighth in points allowed per game and has only been better during the playoffs. Granted, Tom Brady has piloted better offenses, but the Bucs are getting plenty of value from running back Ronald Jones II.

    It matters that their defense doesn't specialize in stopping the pass. They take a lot of gambles. But those risks are demoralizing when they pay off. Tampa Bay is eighth in interceptions and seventh in net yards per passing attempt. They're going to put pressure on Rodgers like he hasn't yet seen.

    Make no mistake, this is a gut-feeling pick. A matchup like this one is too close to confidently call. But we're going with the Brady-backed Bucs.

    OSB Prediction: Tampa Bay Buccaneers (+192)

    Tampa Bay Buccaneers To win the NFC Championship

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  • Kansas City Chiefs (-156) vs. Buffalo Bills (+136)

    Look, the Bills have been spectacular. Their defense is legit, and more importantly, their second-place offense has proven to be far from lightning in a bottle.

    Quarterback Josh Allen and wideout Stefon Diggs currently make up one of the NFL's most dangerous one-two punches on offense. They absolutely carved up a sturdy Baltimore Ravens defense in the divisional round. We personally underestimated them. And that won't happen again.

    At the same time, no one is beating a fully healthy Chiefs team. They are an anomalous combination of dominant on both sides of the ball; there isn't another team in the league with the same two-way big-play potential. The offense is just as likely to complete a 50-yard bomb as the defense is to secure a pick-six.

    Our lone concern lies with Patrick Mahomes' status. He left their win over the Cleveland Browns and entered the concussion protocol. We wouldn't be worried about his ability to play if there were a two-week break, but there is only one.

    The Chiefs made it clear after the game that they believe Mahomes will be ready. That makes our pick easy. You're free to await further word, but the Chiefs will go from decided favorites to blowout favorites once it's confirmed that he's playing. It might behoove you capitalize on the early line.

    OSB Prediction: Kansas City Chiefs (-156)

    Kansas City Chiefs To win the AFC Championship

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  • Parlay Pick of the Week

    Parlays can be tough to build when there are only two games, but we've got what we believe is a hot one. We'll be working the Bucs' moneyline, the Chiefs' spread at -4 (with a -110), and the over/under in the Bills-Chiefs tilt that returns another -110.

    Here's what your bet slip should look like:

    • Bucs (+192)
    • Chiefs (-4)
    • Chiefs-Bills over 54 (-110)

    Risks abound here. The Bucs pick is a coin toss. But if the Chiefs beat the Bills, it will probably be by more than four. And while selecting the over this late in the game is always fraught, Kansas City and Buffalo have two of the highest-scoring offenses in the league.

    This parlay pays out at nearly 11-to-1. For every $100 you wager, you're looking at a return of $1,064—so $964 in pure profit. Rest assured, though, you need to build this one soon. The Chiefs' spread won't remain so small once Mahomes is given the green light.

    Check out this list of the best online sportsbooks so you can decide which one to use for all your NFL betting: