NFL Playoff Picks: Kansas City Chiefs Poised to Steamroll Jacksonville Jaguars

NFL Playoff Picks: Kansas City Chiefs Poised to Steamroll Jacksonville Jaguars

The Jacksonville Jaguars made oddsmakers pay for making them underdogs, at home, against the Los Angeles Chargers during the Wild Card Round of the NFL playoffs. Might they be able to do the same thing again in the NFL playoffs Divisional Round when they take on Patrick Mahomes and the Kansas City Chiefs?

Linemakers don't think so. Just take a look at the latest NFL online betting odds for Chiefs vs. Jaguars, courtesy of the folks over at BetUS:

Kansas City Chiefs-450+350Jacksonville Jaguars

Please make sure you are double-checking these NFL playoff betting odds until you actually make your picks for Jaguars vs. Chiefs. Our Chiefs-Jaguars betting odds are accurate entering Wednesday, January 18. That gives linemakers plenty of time to make adjustments based on the latest betting trends before the game kicks off on Saturday, January 21, at 4:30 p.m. EST.

With that said, you don't have to worry about having the most accurate Chiefs vs. Jaguars betting odds if you've already signed up with the right sportsbook. And luckily, landing with the right odds provider is a breeze if you check out our reviews of the top online sportsbooks. We have jam-packed each and every one with all the information you'll need to find the best NFL playoff online betting sites around!

Now, how should you bet on the Kansas City vs. Jacksonville game? Who will win? Which side will cover the point spread? Is the "over" or the "under" a more appealing wager? Welcome to your one-stop shop for Jaguars vs. Chiefs predictions! 

The Kansas City Chiefs Look Like Locks to Beat the Jacksonville Jaguars

If we're being brutally honest, it is hard to envision a scenario in which the Chiefs lose to the Jaguars. Kansas City enters the Divisional Round laying top-tier odds to win the 2023 Super Bowl for a reason. They are among the NFL's most elite squads.

Of course, we don't mean to underestimate the Jaguars. Quarterback Trevor Lawrence has developed into a game-managing superstar, and the offense now ranks among the league's best. Even Jacksonville's defense has tightened things up. They are among the top rushing-attack stoppers in the game and have allowed fewer than 20 points in three of their past five outings.

Still, going up against Patrick Mahomes, Travis Kelce and company is a different test altogether. The Jaguars have largely been able to shut down opposing offenses that don't light it up. When they're tasked with going up against an elite quarterback, they tend to forfeit points in bunches.

We saw this trend at play in the Wild Card Round. They gave up 30 points to Patrick Herbert and the Chargers. (To their credit, they did limit L.A. to three points after falling behind 27-0). Jacksonville also surrendered 40 points to Dak Prescott and the Dallas Cowboys in Week 15. For as much as the Jaguars have improved on defense, they are still 19th in total passing touchdowns allowed as well as 23rd in net yards allowed per passing attempt. That's not a recipe for success against a Mahomes-led offense in Kansas City.

OSB Prediction: Kansas City Chiefs (-450)

Kansas City Chiefs To beat the Jacksonville Jaguars

Jacksonville Has a Chance to Cover the Point Spread vs. Kansas City

Below you can see the latest NFL point spread betting odds for Jaguars vs. Chiefs:

  • Kansas City Chiefs, -8.5 (-112)
  • Jacksonville Jaguars, +8.5 (-108)

Consider this the "buy" week effect. The Chiefs didn't have to play in the Wild Card Round and were able to rest plenty of key players during the final week of the regular season. They are going to be caps-lock FRESH. Combine this with playing at home, and you can see a clear pathway to a double-digit victory.

Yet, we simply can't rule out the Jaguars bringing this matchup down to the final possession. The offense is now built to go blow-for-blow with the Chiefs through the air, and Kansas City's defense has been pretty forgiving. The Chiefs are dead last in passing touchdowns allowed and don't force a ton of turnovers when the opposing QB drops back.

What's more, Kansas City has struggled to cover double-digit point spreads on the season. Their cover percentage in those situations is in the teens. This isn't a double-digit point spread, but the Jaguars are better than a majority of the opponents the Chiefs have faced, so it's close enough.

OSB Prediction: Jacksonville Jaguars, +8.5 (-108)

Jacksonville Jaguars To cover the point spread vs. the Kansas City Chiefs

Are NFL Oddsmakers Overreacting to Wild Card Weekend with the Over/Under for Chiefs vs. Jaguars?

Here are the latest NFL over/under betting odds for Chiefs vs. Jaguars: 

  • Over 52.5 (-112)
  • Under 52.5 (-108)

A wacky Wild Card Weekend saw the vast majority of games clear 50 total points and, thus, cover the "over." The lines for the Divisional Playoff Round appear to have been juiced up accordingly. We're not used to seeing a 50-plus-point threshold in a Divisional Round showdown taking place in a cold weather city like Kansas City.

We're picking the "over" anyway.

The Jaguars started putting the ball in Lawrence's hands more often roughly six weeks ago. They've been averaging just under 30 points per game ever since. The Chiefs, meanwhile, are averaging over 29 points per game for the entire year and have scored fewer than 24 points just three times. 

Viewed this way, the "over" almost feels like a no-brainer.

OSB Prediction: Over 52.5

Chiefs and Jaguars To score over 52.5 points combined

Take a look at this list of the top online sportsbooks so you can decide which one to use for all of your NFL playoff betting:

Meet the author

Dan Favale

Dan is a sports betting writer who can tackle any topic from presidential elections to changes in the sports betting legislation federally and on the state level. He also writes picks for NFL.