With the 2022 US midterms now in the books, we have a much clearer path to 2024, especially the Oval Office position. Popular political betting sites have shaken up their 2024 odds and we have updated picks on who could win the presidency in two short years. Read this for early analysis that can pay big down on the line in the futures markets.
2022 Midterm Recap
Before we get into any predictions, we need to level-set things and recap 2022 midterms which had a host of seats in the House of Representatives and the Senate up for grabs. Early polls and yes, betting markets, predicted a “red wave.” Welp, the predictions were wrong because Republicans underperformed across the board.
As it stands, Congress might be headed toward a land-lock. We won’t know for sure yet because some races have yet to be called. Republicans are expected to take the House of Representatives as they currently have 211 seats to the Democrats’ 204. The first to 218 gets majority control. Ballots are still being counted in Alaska, Arizona, California, Colorado, Maine, Oregon, and New York but again, the GOP is expected to win marginally.
The Senate will stay controlled by the Blue Party. The Democrats earned their 50th seat when Catherine Cortez Masto beat out Adam Laxalt in Nevada. The only uncalled race is in Georgia, but even if Republicans win there, the Senate would be tied 50-50 with the tiebreaker being Vice President Kamala Harris so yes, it’s over for the GOP here.
All in all, this was one of the better midterm performances by a sitting party in recent memory. Biden has a criminally low approval rating. The U.S. is objectively littered with problems at the moment— out-of-control inflation, taking asset prices, rising crime, and so forth. Because of all this, everyone thought Biden and the Democrats at large would be blamed when voters cast their ballots. But that never materialized and you can argue why that is endlessly, however, that’s not our chief concern at the moment.
What we do care about are the big takeaways as it pertains to who gets the presidential nominees in 2024. For more on that, read our picks below.
2024 US Presidential Nominees Betting Picks
There are two massive winners from the midterms, and it’s our belief that those two will be the best picks to become each respective party's 2024 US presidential nominee. Allow us to explain below:
Democratic Nominee Betting Pick
Let's first take a look at the current betting odds in the Blue party. As it stands, these people are favored most to be the next presidential nominee:
| Candidate |  |  |
|---|---|---|
| Joe Biden | +150 | +150 |
| Kamala Harris | +275 | +275 |
| Gavin Newsom | +325 | +325 |
| Pete Buttigieg | +1000 | +1000 |
| Elisabeth Warren | +1200 | +1200 |
| Hillary Clinton | +1400 | +1400 |
If a red wave would’ve happened, then it would’ve been fair to assume the Democrats would’ve tried to force Biden out from re-running. But since it didn’t, Biden’s chances of going for a second term improved big time coming out of the midterms.
Yes, issues remain for Biden, namely the approval rating and country-wide problems we mentioned before. He’s also turning 80 years old this month. But none of that appeared to matter in 2022 so perhaps 2024 will be the same.
Not only that, but it’s not like the Democrats have a better candidate waiting in the wings. You saw the betting odds above, and no one in that group particularly stands out. We’d jump on Biden’s plus-money line since it’s rare for an incumbent President not to go for reelection.
Republican Nominee Betting Pick
No one is quite sure whether Ron DeSantis will run for the presidency in 2024. But after the midterms, he’d be crazy not to. DeSantis absolutely crushed the Florida governor race, winning by almost 20 points — in what’s historically been a swing state. Even better, his chief rival in the spot, Donald Trump, flamed out.
Trump didn’t run for any midterm position, of course, but a staggering amount of those he endorsed flopped. Getting Trump’s seal of approval used to be mandatory in the GOP, but now? It’s fair to question whether Trump is too radioactive. Since 2020, it appears Trump's support is on the decline with fickle voters.
All signs point toward a DeSantis vs. Trump showdown to be on the Republican ticket for 2024. Our money is on DeSantis to pull out a victory. He shares a lot of the same political beliefs and policies as Trump, but with very little of the extra baggage — impeachment, criminal allegations, etc. Trump MAGA supporters won’t go quietly into the night, but momentum is starting to dwindle for the ex-president.
How To Bet On U.S. Politics
Sports betting is slowly being legalized up and down the United States. However, there are some restrictions to it — even inside legalized states. Political betting is widely banned at legal bookies. That’s why your best chances to bet on US politics are still offshore betting sites, like the ones listed below. So start with the featured bookmakers if you want to take our betting advice.
You can read our in-depth sportsbook reviews to get a better idea of what the sites have to offer. But spoiler alert, it’ll be an elite betting experience and an array of bonuses and promotions. See the table below for details on how to get started and lock in these 2024 picks!
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