Betting Odds for 2020 US Presidential Election
One caveat to there being so many candidates for the 2020 Presidential Election is that it’s a lot more difficult to decide which to invest in. Donald Trump is going to represent the Republicans, but there’s more uncertainty tied to the Democratic party. Our analysis cover all of the following:
- Ins and outs of Political Betting
- Complete 2020 Presidential Election Odds
- Politics Betting Odds for Each Party
- Analysis on the Most Likely Winners
All odds for the 2020 presidential election come via Bovada.
2020 Presidential Election Odds
How Does Political Betting Work?
Contrary to popular belief, political betting isn’t all that different from gambling on sports. You’re not dealing with total scores, touchdowns, home runs, goals or anything like that. But you are in the business of predicting an outcome.
Moneyline bets are the most popular wagers on the political circuit. These entail picking an outright winner. For example, if one candidate is laying a +300, you earn $300 for every $100 you bet if they win. That’s the key here. There is no over, under or spread. You’re strictly betting on the final outcome.
Granted, you don’t have to just bet on one candidate. Sportsbooks also offer specific party selections, namely Democrat or Republican. While the odds on these are nowhere near as lucrative—you’re essentially looking at close to even money or worse—they’re a good way to offset the decision fatigue you may feel if you cannot settle on a specific party.
Another important thing about political betting: The gradualness of it all. There’s a chance that a candidate you place a wager on will not make the final ballot. They may not win their party primaries, or they may simply drop out—which happens quite often. This is another reason why the single-party moneylines are so valuable. They safeguard you against sudden shifts in the odds for individuals.
Still, if you pay attention to the news, we’re close enough to the 2020 election that you can invest in a specific candidate and feel pretty confident about it.
And finally, incumbent candidates are always going to get special treatment, because they’re effectively guaranteed to represent their party in the election. Barring impeachment, Donald Trump is going to be the Republican party’s candidate. That means there’s a greater chance his individual odds are deflated, since bettors don’t have another option.
You’ll want to keep this in mind before placing a wager, because in a nutshell, it suggests that his lines aren’t necessarily reflective of his actual chance to win.
Odds for Top 2020 Presidential Election Candidates
Here are the candidates laying odds up to a +10000 or better:
- Donald Trump (+200)
- Kamala Harris, Bernie Sanders (+600)
- Joe Biden (+700)
- Beto O’Rourke (+1000)
- Amy Klobuchar, Elizabeth Warren (+2500)
- Sherrod Brown (+2800)
- Andrew Yang (+3000)
- Kirsten Gillibrand, Mike Pence (+3300)
- Cory Booker (+3500)
- Tulsi Gabbard (+4000)
- Michelle Obama, Nikki Haley, Dwayne “The Rock Johnson”, Mark Cuban (+5000)
- Howard Schultz (+6000)
- Michael Avenatti, Pete Buttgieg, Julian Castro, John Hickenlooper, John Kasich (+6600)
- Mitt Romney, Oprah Winfrey (+7500)
- Marco Rubio, Eric Garcetti, Tom Wolf, Orrin Hatch, Rahm Emanuel (+8000)
- Andrew Cuomo, Paul Ryan, George Clooney, John Kennedy III, Ted Cruz, Rand Paul, Ben Shapiro, Bill Gates (+10000)
Which Candidate Win: Democratic (-150) or Republican (+120)
The reflexive answer here is, of course, the Democratic party. Most statistical polls will show that a majority of America is unhappy with Donald Trump in office.
With that said, there’s a very real concern among people that the Republican party will show a more united front at the polls. Whereas many could remain loyal to their registered status, the thinking goes that Democrats—and liberals in general—will be too split to band together and vote Trump out of office.
That should probably an ancillary concern, though. The Democratic party has gained a lot of ground in other elections since Trump’s inauguration. And after his victory in 2016, the group as a whole should understand that there’s a very real chance he gets re-elected.
Regardless of who ends up being the face of the Democrats, should it be Kamala Harris, Bernie Sanders, Beto O’Rourke or Joe Biden, the safe bet is on them re-acquiring control of the White House.
OSB Prediction: Democrat candidate wins (-150)
Best Winning Candidate Bets
While we can assume the winner will be a Democratic candidate, it gets tougher to decide which of the many potential options will be the victor. Here are our best bets (note that some of these names have not officially declared):
Kamala Harris (+600)
A lot of people might think that Bernie Sanders is the chosen one for Democratic voters. We’re not not quite sold. Kamala Harris has all the makings of a potential favorite, without some of the radical ideas.
Since becoming a Senator, she has supported issues such as the legalization of recreational marijuana, medicare for all and cutting taxes for the working and middle classes while raising them for corporations and 1-percenters.
Joe Biden (+700)
Joe Biden has yet to officially declare his candidacy, but he has hinted at it. Once his eligibility becomes official, the odds may shift heavily in his favor. Many wanted the former Vice President to run after Barack Obama‘s two terms were up, and it’s unlikely that support has waned over the past four or so years.
Beto O’Rourke (+1000)
After losing to Ted Cruz in the senate race, it initially wasn’t clear if Beto O’Rourke would shift his focus to the Presidential race. But speculation quickly turned into fact with his recent declaration. And while there are many who don’t see him as a viable threat, we’re not buying that act.
Remember: He gave Cruz a run for his money in Texas. The entire United States isn’t Texas. The national traction he gained during that election campaign is going to serve him well.
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