UFC 234 Betting Lines: Can Robert Whittaker Retain His Title?
In addition to our breakdown of UFC 234’s main event between Robert Whittaker vs. Kelvin Gastelum, we’ll also touch upon:
- Israel Adesanya vs. Anderson Silva
- Rani Yahya vs. Ricky Simon
- Odds for the rest of UFC Fight Night
- Any pertinent UFC News
- Predictions for each Main Card!
Please note that all fight odds come from Bovada and are accurate as of Wednesday, February 6.
UFC 234 Main Event
Robert Whittaker (-240) vs. Kelvin Gastelum (+165)
Oddsmakers don’t give Kelvin Gastelum much of a chance to win this battle in Australia, which should come as no surprise. Whittaker has only ever lost once as the favorite, and he’s routinely made decisive work of southpaws like his latest opponent.
This one stands to get interesting if the fight goes the distance. Both men are built for stamina. But Robert “The Reaper” Whittaker, an Australia native, has the home-ring advantage and a championship track record that suggests he’ll eventually pull away.
OSB Prediction: Robert Whittaker (-240)
Other Main-Card Fights
Israel Adesanya (-380) vs. Anderson Silva (+290)
Resist the urge to pick Anderson Silva as a semi-lucrative underdog play. Israel Adesanya has zero career losses to his name, and his physical profile figures to cause problems for his latest opponent.
Adesanya’s switch stance is tough to crack, and he has a reach of 80 inches. That he’s also nearly 15 years younger than Silva matters, too. His matches average around 13-plus minutes of fight time, but don’t be surprised if he closes this one in 10 or less.
OSB Prediction: Israel Adesanya (-380)
Rani Yahya (+125) vs. Ricky Simon (-155)
Ricky Simon, the 24-year-old out of Canada, has quickly started gaining the relative confidence of oddsmakers. He has won each of his last five fights and sits at 14-1 for his career. He prides himself on prolonging matches. His average bout time is around 15 minutes so far, which is a far cry from Rani Yahya’s sub-10-minute average.
Bettors will not be criticized for going with Simon. He is a safe pick, as both the overall favorite and the younger fighter. But Yahya quick-hitting style could cause some problems for him, and it’s worth noting that Yahya has yet to lose when entering as the underdog.
OSB Prediction: Rani Yahya (+125)
Montana De La Rosa (-260) vs. Nadia Kassem (+200)
This fight is difficult to analyze. Though Montana De La Rosa has far way more official UFC matches under her belt, she’s not an experienced odds-on-favorite fighter and tends to struggle when her bouts go longer than eight or nine minutes.
On the flip side, while Nadia Kassem is pretty new to the scene, having just five fights to her card, she’s poised to make primetime waves. Her average fight time is on the higher end (15 minutes), which bodes well if she can survive past the first two or three rounds, and it needs to be acknowledged that she’s undefeated for her career.
We’re taking a chance on her.
OSB Prediction: Nadia Kassem (+200)
Sam Alvey (+115) vs. Jimmy Crute (-130)
Sportsbooks have been inconsistent in delivering their odds for both Sam Alvey and Jimmy Crute. Some have Alvey as a +200 or so underdog, and certain oddsmakers have listed Crute as a -175 favorite or better.
Alvey traditionally hasn’t performed well as the underdog. His striking percentage falls below 50, and he’s not especially adept at takedowns. Crute has him comfortably beat in both areas, which is why we’re expecting this fight to be more decisive than the numbers imply.
OSB Prediction: Jimmy Crute (-130)
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