UFC 236 Betting Odds: Will Max Holloway Beat Dustin Poirier?
This clash between Max Holloway and Dustin Poirier at UFC 236 is one of the more interesting events we’ve seen scheduled in recent memory. Yes, they’re battling for the lightweight championship, but it’s more so an interim title until the undisputed title holder, Khabib Nurmagomedov, returns from his suspension in early July. Still, it’s a big opportunity. The winner will be fast-tracked toward keeping the belt in the months to come, which is why we’re breaking down all things UFC betting odds in Atlanta:
- UFC 236 Odds for Holloway vs. Justin Poirier
- UFC 236 Odds for Kelvin Gastelum vs. Israel Adesanya
- Analysis for both main events
- UFC 236 Picks and Predictions
- Odds for all the other fights
Please note that all of our UFC Odds come via Bovada. Make sure to double-check all the lines before placing your wager, as they are subject to change right up until the opening bell.
Max Holloway (-235) vs. Dustin Poirier (+185)
With reigning lightweight champion Nurmagomedov on suspension, and with Conor McGregor also suspended/retired, opportunity is knocking at the doors of both Max Holloway and Dustin Poirier. Neither will hold the lightweight championship indefinitely, as Nurmagomedov’s suspension will lift in July and he’s expected to fight again in the fall, but holding the interim title will do wonders for their standing within the division and certainly give them a crack at an eventual all-or-nothing championship bout.
Poirier specifically is fortunate to be on this stage. UFC initially extended the interim-title opportunity to Holloway and Tony Ferguson, the No. 1 ranked fighter in the official lightweight division. But while Holloway accepted, Ferguson declined. And here we are.
Holloway (20-3) has developed into a skilled and dangerous fighter. He is undefeated since 2017, a stretch that includes three consecutive total knockout. Although he will hang onto his 145-pound title belt regardless of how this match turns out, his appearance is not without stakes. He’s riding a 13-fight winning streak, and he enters as the No. 4 pound-for-pound fighter in the world.
Poirier (24-5) is working off his own impressive span. He’s pieced together victories over standout fighters Anthony Pettis, Justin Gaethje and Eddy Alvarez. Eight of his last nine bouts have ended in victory, and six of those have even needed to go the distance.
This will not mark the first meeting between Poirier and Holloway. They squared off once before, in 2012. Poirier submitted Holloway at UFC 143 less than four minutes into the fight, but that match was Holloway’s UFC debut. Things are expected to be different this time around.
As we can tell, Holloway is heavily favored by oddsmakers, in no small part because he’s become excellent at ending fights quickly. Poirier, on the other hand, wins with stamina. He registers as a worthy foe for Holloway, but he doesn’t have the power behind his quick-twitch jabs that Holloway does.
OSB Prediction: Holloway (-235)
Kelvin Gastelum (+170) vs. Israel Adesanya (-200)
Welcome to the battle for UFC’s interim middleweight belt. It figures to be a doozy.
Israel Adesanya (20-0) enters as the undefeated upstart. This will be his sixth appearance in the Octagon over the past 14 months. He’s betting on that giving him a stark advantage over the less active Kelvin Gastelum (15-3).
As Adesanya told recently told reporters, per MMAJunkie.com: “Momentum’s a powerful force, and it keeps on rolling. I’m going to roll over Kelvin.”
Oddsmakers appear to share his thoughts. They’re not without reason, either. He steamrolled legend Anderson Silva at UFC 234 by unanimous decision. At the same time, it would be foolish to overlook Gastelum. He was teed up for a title bout with the permanent middleweight champion, Robert Whittaker, before the latter needed to back out in order to recover from surgery.
Indeed, there should be a very strong push to wager on Gastelum as the overall winner. He plays a more nuanced style than Adesanya. Both are highly intellectual fighters who know how to use footwork and striking angles to their advantage, but Gastelum has the clear edge when it comes to grappling and submissions.
Ultimately, though, Adesanya’s fresh legs are too intimidating to pass up. Not only has he fought more often, but he’s exceptional when it comes to evasive maneuvers. He won’t stay close enough for long periods of time for Gastelum to get him in a submissive hold. He’ll force him to move around, and to come to him. That strategy should end up favoring him to the tune of a unanimous decision victory.
OSB Prediction: Israel Adesanya (-200)
More UFC 236 Betting Odds
Here are the lines for the other fights on UFC 236’s card:
- Eryk Anders (-170) vs. Khalil Rountree Jr (+140)
- Dwight Grant (-110) vs. Alan Jouban (-120)
- Ovince Saint Preux (-115) vs. Nikita Krylov (-115)
- Matt Frevola (+105) vs. Jalin Turner (-135)
- Wilson Reis (+165) vs. Alexandre Pantoja (-205)
- Max Griffin (-110) vs. Zelim Imadaev (-120)
- Boston Salmon (-140) vs. Khalid Taha (+110)
- Curtis Millender (+110) vs. Belal Muhammad (-140)
- Montel Jackson (-400) vs. Andre Soukhamthath (+300)
- Poliana Botelho (-160) vs. Lauren Mueller (+130)
- Randy Costa (+125) vs. Brandon Davis (-155)
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