UFC 241: Daniel Cormier vs Stipe Miocic II Betting Odds and Predictions
- Daniel Cormier (-140)
- Stipe Miocic II (+110)
This fight, and four other big-timers, will take place on Saturday, August 17 in Anaheim, California, so there is still plenty of time for you to make your UFC picks.
But be sure that you’re regularly checking lines before you do. These UFC Vegas odds will shift between now and the opening bell. In the meantime, we’re here to help you make some money by going over our top UFC 241 picks, a breakdown that will include all of the following:
- Complete UFC 241 odds
- Analysis on Cormier vs. Miocic
- Predictions for Cormier vs. Miocic
- Odds on the other four major UFC 241 fights
- Betting picks for all the main matchups
UFC 241 Betting Breakdown
Daniel Cormier (-140) vs. Stipe Miocic II (+110)
This will be Cormier’s second title defense over the past year. Somewhat ironically, he earned his World Heavyweight Champion status against Miocic, who was the reigning champ until last July. Cormier dethroned him in what was his first match in the heavyweight division.
The 40-year-old Cormier has been on a relative tear over the past couple of years. He hasn’t lost in the Octagon since UFC 182 in 2015, when he fell to Jon Jones. (He also lost to Jones in 2017, but that result was vacated after Jones failed a drug test.)
As someone with a boxing and wrestling background, Cormier knows how to generate extreme power behind his punches. And don’t let his 5’11” frame fool you. He is teeming with raw strength as well.
Miocic, meanwhile, is returning to the Octagon for the first time since he lost his title to Cormier. That layoff might make some uneasy, but he was performing well at the time of his 2018 defeat, having won six consecutive matches.
Miocic will probably try replicating his fighting style from the opening round of last year’s fight. He had Cormier up against the cage and earned an early takedown. But he’ll have to do a better job grappling and wrestling in general to earn the W.
That ultimately feels like too big of an ask. Cormier’s experience outside the Octagon favors him in a match that could once again turn into a punch-for-punch affair.
OSB’s Prediction: Daniel Cormier (-140)
Anthony Pettis (-115) vs. Nate Diaz (-115)
Oddsmakers can’t decide on this match. We’re in agreement with them. Forecasting this fight is ridiculously hard.
Anthony “Showtime” Pettis is trying to win consecutive bouts for the first time since his hot stretch between 2011 and 2014. He’s working off a March second-round knockout victory over Stephen Thompson in what was his Welterweight Division debut.
To call Pettis hit or miss would be stretch. But his outcomes are typically predicated on generating absurd amounts of power on his punches while connecting on a high percentage of them.
This will be hard to do against an all-around fighter like Nate Diaz. The 34-year-old is entering the Octagon for the first time since UFC 202 in 2016, but he’s incredibly aggressive and hard to track. His attack-attack-attack style should serve him well in this matchup. We like him a little more than Pettis in this almost dead-even contest.
OSB Prediction: Nate Diaz (-115)
Yoel Romero (-190) vs. Paulo Costa (+155)
And we thought UFC 240 was loaded. This match between Yoel Romero and Paulo Costa proves that UFC 241 is about to get the edge. It would be the co-main event on most other dockets.
It is a little surprising to see Romero have such a decided moneyline advantage. He hasn’t fought since June 2016, when he suffered a split-decision loss to Robert Whittaker.
The odds start to make a little more sense if we assume this match will last for a while. Romero is a patient fighter who meticulously picks his offensive spots. The longer most matches last, the better it turns out for him.
That may hold doubly true against Costa, who is putting his perfect record (4-0) on the line. His fights typically don’t go that long. Just one of his matches, in fact, has gone beyond the second half of the second round.
But youth has a way of making life difficult on more deliberate fighters, and Costa is about 14 years Romero’s junior. The latter’s pusher style may not work out so well for him against one of UFC’s more aggressive hitters.
OSB Prediction: Paulo Costa (+155)
Sodiq Yusuff (-400) vs. Gabriel Benitez (+300)
Sodiq Yusuff is the overwhelming favorite against Gabriel Benitez for a reason. It isn’t just that he’s undefeated in the Octagon (4-0). It’s also that he’s among the most cerebal fighters alive.
Positioning is everything to Yusuff. He likes to stand just outside striking distance only to re-enter range to deliver quick combinations. Many analysts have pointed out that he still withstands more than his fair share of licks per minute, but his defense may actually be underrated by this point.
Benitez’s own style might grate against that from Yusuff. He likes to wage incessant battle from the opening bell. That approach works against super conservative fighters and fellow over-the-top aggressors, but Yusuff is a balance between the two.
OSB Prediction: Sodiq Yusuff (-400)
Ian Heinisch (-205) vs. Derek Brunson (+165)
Derek Brunson is a fantastic sleeper bet at UFC 241.
Some don’t appreciate his style. He is patient, but he also expends a ton of energy on his strikes. And yet, that all-in approach suits him.
Six of his 10 UFC victories have ended in knockout. That number is even higher when factoring in his other fights; eleven of his overall 19 wins have come by knockout.
Ian Heinisch will look to wear on Brunson, like he does his other opponents. His fighting style is disoriented—gimmicky even. He is an expert at evasive maneuvers and setups. It sometimes seems like he’s playing chess to everyone else’s checkers game. He’ll use out of range kicks to position himself for closer-range punches.
This fight feels like it’ll be more evenly matched than the odds suggest. We’re still taking the favorite. His bob-and-weaves figure to be exhausting.
OSB Prediction: Ian Heinisch (-205)
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