Dan Favale | Sun 11/02/2018 - 03:48 EST

Updated Championship Odds for Every NBA Team Following Trade Deadline

Updated Championship Odds for Every NBA Team Following Trade Deadline
The NBA's silly season did not disappointment. Despite the absence of a true blockbuster, superstar-headlined trade at the deadline, there was still an avalanche of movement, both from some of the league's best teams and from a few of the worst squads. Though it will take some time to see how all these moves pan out, we're here to make sense of the latest championship odds—which, in many cases, have shifted as a result of all this player movement.

Championship odds come courtesy of TopBet and are accurate leading into games played on Saturday, Feb. 10. While some lines will remain steady for the rest of the year, you’ll want to recheck the teams situated at the tippy top before placing a wager, as those numbers are still liable to swing one way or the other. Please note that teams will also be presented in order of increasing sportsbooks lines.

Sacramento Kings (+300000)

Odds Verdict: Too high

This feels ridiculous to say in advance of the Sacramento Kings, like many of the other teams first up on this list, headed for the “off” section of championship betting. But they’re terrible. Awful. Historically horrid. And they got worse at the trade deadline by shipping out George Hill—while, mind you, dumping two 2016 first-round prospects for essentially nothing.

Atlanta Hawks (+200000)

Odds Verdict: Just right

Head coach Mike Budenholzer will always have his team playing hard, but the Atlanta Hawks still suffer from a talent deficit. And with them expected to buy out some of their veterans, they’re not going to get any better.

Brooklyn Nets (+200000)

Odds Verdict: A little low

Are the Brooklyn Nets making the playoffs? Absolutely not. Have they been struggling of late, particularly on the offensive end? Most definitely. But they’re primed to play spoiler in the Eastern Conference. Looping them into the same conversation as some of the teams that follow under rates them.

Chicago Bulls (+200000)

Odds Verdict: Just right

Nikola Mirotic is gone, which could mean the Chicago Bulls’ tank is saved. However, they failed to move Justin Holiday, who tacks on a few wins to their bottom line. More importantly, young prospects like Kris Dunn and Lauri Markkanen, plus a healthy Zach LaVine, are starting to show flashes. Chicago may be in line to rack up more wins than we think.

Dallas Mavericks (+200000)

Odds Verdict: Just right

Gone are the days in which the Dallas Mavericks look better than their record suggests. They secured a nice pickup at the deadline in Doug McDermott, but they don’t have the offensive juice with rookie Dennis Smith Jr. running point guard to exceed expectations from here.

Memphis Grizzlies (+200000)

Odds Verdict: A little low

In no way are the Memphis Grizzlies ripe for a turnaround. But they’ve also thus far avoided a full-fledged commitment to tanking. Though they’ve shut Mike Conley down for the season and moved James Ennis at the deadline, Marc Gasol is still playing in games. Most of all, they didn’t trade Tyreke Evans, who is on a one-year deal and has been their best player this season. Expect them to botch what should have been a no-brainer bottoming-out nosedive.

New York Knicks (+200000)

Odds Verdict: Too high

Trading Willy Hernangomez was a questionable decision. But neither his nor Doug McDermott’s departure has any real bearing on the New York Knicks’ immediate outlook. That honor belongs to Kristaps Porzingis’ season-ending ACL injury. Without him in the fold, the Knicks are no better than the Kings. Their championship odds have not plummeted low enough.

Orlando Magic (+200000)

magic

Odds Verdict: Too high

The Orlando Magic rank a surprisingly not-terrible 18th in points scored per 100 possessions on the season. They also just shipped their best point guard to the Phoenix Suns for nothing in return. Perhaps Elfrid Payton’s exit beefs up their defense through addition by subtraction. Yet, even if it does, they took a bad roster and fleeced it of an overall asset. They should be hovering in Kings territory (+300000) or lower. 

Phoenix Suns (+200000)

Odds Verdict: Just right

Sure, the Suns are frisky on some nights. And yes, they just brought in Elfrid Payton without having to give up anything more than a mid-end second-round pick. But they’re a young and, at times, lifeless bunch as well. Devin Booker is legitimately good, and Marquese Chriss, Dragan Bender, Josh Jackson and T.J. Warren have all shown flashes. Still, as their recent 48-point blowout loss to the San Antonio Spurs proved, they don’t have the tools to navigate adversity.

Los Angeles Lakers (+100000)

lakers

Odds Verdict: A little low

Acquiring Channing Frye and a slumping Isaiah Thomas at the trade deadline won’t reinvent the Los Angeles Lakers’ standing within the league. They have, however, added more spacing and, should Thomas return to form following his hip injury, a fringe All-Star. With just 5.5 games separating them from the Western Conference’s playoff picture, the Lakers, as much as I hate to say it, wouldn’t be a bad super-duper long shot play to sniff the postseason—provided you’re prepared to lose your investment.

Utah Jazz (+100000)

Odds Verdict: Too Low

Flipping Rodney Hood and Joe Johnson for what amounts to Jae Crowder is a substantial gamble by the Utah Jazz. But Hood hasn’t been great this season. He’s routinely been outplayed by Royce O’Neale, and even Alec Burks has at times curried favor over him. Now they add someone, in Crowder, who can defend 1s, 2s, 3s and 4s when playing at his peak, while drilling spot-up threes. Oh! They also rank fifth in offensive efficiency, second in defensive efficiency and second in net rating since Rudy Gobert’s return to the rotation.

New Orleans Pelicans (+75000)

Odds Verdict: Too low

Yes, yes, yes. The New Orleans Pelicans lost DeMarcus Cousins. We get it. Their season is ruined. But the acquisition of Nikola Mirotic should solidify their playoff status. That alone should be worth them laying something that implies more likelihood than a +75000. All the better for long-shot bettors, though.

Charlotte Hornets (+50000)

Odds Verdict: Too high

Um, no. Just no. The Charlotte Hornets are a really bad basketball team. They’re not quite on the same level as a Porzingis-less Knicks or the Kings in general, but there is no way they should be laying better odds than the Jazz, Lakers and Pelicans. Just no.

Denver Nuggets (+50000)

Odds Verdict: Too low

This spot comes close to being picture-perfect right for the Denver Nuggets. Their offense continues to plumb levels of awesomeness, but their defense just isn’t that good—though, for what it’s worth, they get better on the less glamorous end whenever Nikola Jokic plays. Still, with Paul Millsap set to return in the next couple weeks, sportsbooks appear to be letting this group fly under the radar.

Los Angeles Clippers (+50000)

clips

Odds Verdict: Too high

Maybe the Los Angeles Clippers are better off in the short term without Blake Griffin. That’s a weird thing to say about a borderline top-25 star, but his replacement, Tobias Harris, is better suited for small-ball combinations, and Avery Bradley, despite his own struggles, adds a layer of defensive protection on the perimeter they just didn’t have before. A healthy Danilo Gallinari will do wonders for this team as well. Nevertheless, the Clippers should probably be laying something similar to the miscast Pelicans (+75000) given their injuries and the extent of their midseason roster recalibration.

Indiana Pacers (+17500)

Odds Verdict: Just right

Feel free to claim the Indiana Pacers belong in +10000 territory or better. We won’t argue with you. The Eastern Conference is a mess of mediocrity, and they ostensibly have a fair shake at anyone they face over the course of a seven-game series. But Darren Collison’s recent knee injury torpedoes this teams’ championship appeal. Victor Oladipo cannot carry the offensive load on his own, and so much of what Domantas Sabonis and Myles Turner do well on that end is predicated on the constant presence of two high-powered guards getting theirs.

Detroit Pistons (+15000)

Odds Verdict: Too Low

The early returns on this Blake Griffin-Andre Drummond partnership are good. That’s for sure. But they’re not this good. The Detroit Pistons don’t have nearly enough playmaking or spacing around them to survive late-game shootouts, and despite their recent five-game winning streak, we saw how detrimental this can be in their loss to Griffin’s former team, the Clippers.

Miami Heat (+15000)

Odds Verdict: Too high

Snagging Dwyane Wade from the Cleveland Cavaliers at the deadline doesn’t improve the Miami Heat’s ceiling enough to warrant a +15000. He does give them another closing scorer, something they need with Dion Waiters out for the year. But he’s no longer a franchise-changer at his age. Where he might address some late-game anemia, he won’t do much for an offense that ranks 29th in points scored per 100 possessions overall during its last 12 games. 

Portland Trail Blazers (+12500)

Odds Verdict: Just right

Giving +12500 to the Portland Trail Blazers might be a little ambitious. They didn’t do anything other than shed salary at the trade deadline, and starting center Jusuf Nurkic has been genuinely disappointing. Then again, their offense is showing signs of life, and they’re getting quality minutes from rookie Zach Collins. They’re in the right spot as of now.

Philadelphia 76ers (+8000)

sixers

Odds Verdict: Too high

The Philadelphia 76ers would have warranted more championship-odds consideration if they made a buy-low move at the deadline. They didn’t. And so, they remain woefully thin on the wings once you move outside the starting lineup. Faring like a contender when Joel Embiid plays won’t get them by forever. They really could have used Tyreke Evans. And if this doesn’t sell you, bear in mind any late-season return from injured rookie Markelle Fultz is likely to throw their on-court chemistry for an unproductive whirl. 

Milwaukee Bucks (+5000)

Odds Verdict: Too high

Top-heavy rosters that lack multiple superstars shouldn’t play this well in the championship conversation. The Milwaukee Bucks have an inarguable top-five talent in Giannis Antetokounmpo, along with a couple of fringe stars in Eric Bledsoe and Khris Middleton. But their spacing is still off, Jabari Parker is only in the early stages of his return from a second ACL injury, and injuries to both Malcolm Brogdon and Matthew Dellavedova leave them with no suitable options at backup point guard. On top of that, acquiring Tyler Zeller a few days before the deadline doesn’t do enough to address their defensive rebounding woes and spotty rim protection.

Minnesota Timberwolves (+5000)

Odds Verdict: Too high

As we’ve reiterated ad nauseam in this space all year: Do not trust the Minnesota Timberwolves. Their high-powered offense leans on low-quality shot attempts—too many mid-range jumpers and not enough three-pointers. Their defense also remains too inconsistent. Perhaps most troubling, head coach Tom Thibodeau remains bench-averse. He overworks his starters, making the Timberwolves a team that could flame out of energy just before the postseason. 

Washington Wizards (+5000)

Odds Verdict: Too high

John Wall recovering from a knee debridement for the next six weeks or so is only part of the Washing Wizards’ disenchantment. Look beyond that, and they’re still left with a bench mob that doesn’t have the requisite playmaker to carry them when both a healthy Wall and Bradley Beal take a breather. Unless Tomas Satoransky really showcases his floor-general skills independent of the starters, the Wizards shouldn’t enjoy borderline-favorite odds.

San Antonio Spurs (+3500)

Odds Verdict: Just right

It feels a little like the San Antonio Spurs should be laying better odds than two or three of the teams in front of them right now. But they neither made a move at the deadline nor do they know when—or if—Kawhi Leonard will be returning this season. So this feels like a good hedge for them.

Oklahoma City Thunder (+2200)

thunder

Odds Verdict: Just right

Giving the Oklahoma City Thunder better odds than the Spurs after they lost Andre Roberson, one of their two best defenders, for the rest of the season looks a little off. At the same time, they’ve held pretty steady without him, thanks in large part to the efforts of Paul George. They also figure to be serious buyout-market players for prospective options like Marco Belinelli and Joe Johnson—each of whom would help their wing rotation immensely.

Toronto Raptors (+2000)

Odds Verdict: Just right

Resist the urge to call this too low. The Toronto Raptors are ridiculously good. That’s not up for argument. They fall inside both the top five of offensive and defensive effiency, and they have one of the NBA’s deepest, most potent benches. Give them props. But until Kyle Lowry and DeMar DeRozan prove they can both score with heightened efficiency in the postseason, we cannot give this team the benefit of the doubt. If anything, a +2000 might not be lucrative enough for you to invest in.

Boston Celtics (+1400)

Odds Verdict: Too high

Some people will no doubt be rubbed the wrong way by this interpretation. The Boston Celtics have the Eastern Conference’s best record, and they’ve given the reigning-champion Golden State Warriors fits over their last two meetings. But they needed to get another self-sufficient scorer at the deadline—someone to alleviate the burden on Kyrie Irving down the stretch of close games, who also allows head coach Brad Stevens to rest Irving and Al Horford at the same time. They didn’t get that contributor; they didn’t make any move at all. And while guys like Jaylen Brown, Jayson Tatum, Terry Rozier, et al. have been valuable all year, the Celtics own a bottom-five offensive rating since Christmas. They’re awfully awesome, but they’re also overrated.

Cleveland Cavaliers (+950)

cavs

Odds Verdict: Too low

Stark midseason shakeups seldom work right from the jump. Teams need time to integrate new players, yet mid-stream acquisitions come when NBA squads are rarely, if ever, holding consistent practices. The Cavaliers overturned a huge chunk of their roster at the trade deadline, and although they look better and slightly more versatile on paper with the additions of Jordan Clarkson, Rodney Hood, George Hill and Larry Nance Jr., they’ll need a learning curve to bring it altogether. Considering they were flailing in the first place, just before those deals, betting on them while they’re laying anything under +1200 doesn’t seem worth it.

Houston Rockets (+420)

Odds Verdict: Just right

Would it be nice if the Houston Rockets were getting +500 or more? For sure. But they’ve very clearly emerged as the NBA’s second-best team—a genuine threat to the Warriors’ reign. And they’re only going to get better through the buyout market. They’ve already added some frontcourt insurance with the signing of Brandan Wright, and they’re considered a good destination for any wing—Joe Johnson, Marco Belinelli, etc.—who might find themselves up for grabs in the coming weeks.

Golden State Warriors (-275)

Odds Verdict: Too low

No, you’re not seeing things. You’re reading this correctly. The Warriors should without question be noticeable favorites to win the title, as they are now. But this is too much. They haven’t been defending like the team of years past, and they don’t get much shooting outside Stephen Curry, Kevin Durant and Klay Thompson. The bench in particular is shaky on this front; Golden State’s second unit ranks dead last in three-pointers made per 100 possessions. And with the Rockets nipping at their heels, along with whatever upside the Cavaliers, Celtics, Raptors and Spurs are offering, they should probably be closer to even money at this stage. Steer clear of their championship odds unless the potential return moves appreciably more in the bettor’s favor.

*All statistics courtesy of Basketball-Reference or NBA.com and are accurate leading into games being

Category : Sports Betting News

Tag : basketball , boston celtics , chicago bulls , cleveland cavaliers , Golden State Warriors , houston rockets , Los Angeles Lakers , miami heat , minnesota timberwolves , nba , new york knicks , san antonio spurs , toronto raptors , washington wizards

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