Updated Super 53 Odds for Every Team Following NFL Draft
Super Bowl 53 odds come courtesy of Bovada and are accurate as of Monday, May 10. Always make sure you’re checking them over before deciding on or placing a wager. They typically remain close to constant at this stage of the offseason, but they will shift as the NFL nears training camp and the preseason.
Chicago Bears (+10000)
In a somewhat interesting turn of events, the Chicago Bears went hard on the defensive side of the ball during the 2018 draft. They picked up a nice linebacker in Roquan Smith, along with some nifty other pieces, but this general focus was curious for a team that placed ninth in points allowed per game last season.
Meanwhile, after finishing 29th in points scored per contest, their highest-profile pick on the more glamorous end came at No. 51, with receiver Anthony, and also at No. 39, with center James Daniels. Knowing they’ll have Mitch Trubisky still trying to figure out things at quarterback, it figures to be another long season in Chicago. A second straight sub-six-win campaign is not out of the question.
Miami Dolphins (+15000)
The Miami Dolphins elected against investing in a quarterback during the draft. They instead appear to be waiting to see whether Ryan Tannehill returns to previous form. That’s a risky gamble. He wasn’t great to begin with, and his leadership skills have long been in question.
Plus, the Dolphins didn’t do much, if anything to forge a clear identity during the prospect pageant. They selected two tight ends through the first 125 picks, and their top choice, defensive back Minkah Fitzpatrick could be subject to a massive learning curve as he’s already expected to cover some of the toughest assignments in the game.
New York Jets (+20000)
Some people think the New York Jets won’t start rookie quarterback Sam Darnold right away. That, in turn, would make them an interesting longer-than-long-shot bet. But let’s be real: The Jets gave up three second-round picks to put themselves in a position to get this flamethrower.
Given how much trouble they’ve had putting a franchise player under center for the past few decades, it seems reasonable to assume they’ll begin the regular season with a rookie running the show. That makes them non-factors at the sportsbooks as a result.
Arizona Cardinals (+10000)
The Arizona Cardinals are yet another team that could be trotting out a first-year QB to run the offense. They grabbed UCLA’s Josh Rosen in the first round, and while they signed Sam Bradford beforehand, it’s not yet clear whether they plan to name him the opening-day starter.
Either way, the Cardinals stand as a dramatic risk on the betting front. They invested heavily on the offensive side during the draft, particularly at wideout and in the backfield. They’re going to have a lot of inexperienced players contributing in 2018. Banking on them to match last season’s eight-win total feels like a stretch.
Cincinnati Bengals (+10000)
Oddsmakers may not be giving the Cincinnati Bengals enough credit. Andy Dalton is expected to be healthy to start the year; they re-signed tight end Tyler Eifert; they have two strong options in the backfield with Joe Mixon and Giovani Bernard; A.J. Green is a legit No. 1 option; and most understatedly, they picked up two big presences on the offensive line with center Billy Price and tackle Cordy Glenn (via trade).
Though we’re not saying they’ll rattle off 10-plus victories, AFC North Division is still begging for a No. 2 team behind the Pittsburgh Steelers. It could be them to the tune of eight or nine (or more) victories.
Cleveland Browns (+9000)
A lot of people like the Cleveland Browns using the No. 1 selection on quarterback Baker Mayfield. That’s fine. But they continue to want for a concrete trajectory. Like, what’s the point of using the No. 1 pick on a quarterback when you already traded for Tyrod Taylor? There’s no guarantee Mayfield starts right away, and even if he does, the offense will probably be worse off for it due to his relative inexperience.
Look, this team has talent. Jarvis Landry was a good pickup at wideout, and rookie Nick Chubb should make an immediate impact in the backfield. There’s a chance—a chance—these Browns won’t have the NFL’s worst record after going in 0-16. But you cannot hope for more than a handful of victories.
Washington Redskins (+6600)
Kudos to the Washington Redskins for acknowledging they have a problem on the defensive side of the ball. Five of their seven draft picks in the top-200 selections steered toward their 27th-place D, and more than a few are high(ish) on the offensive targets with which they’ve surrounded quarterback Alex Smith.
But the immediate outlook in Washington doesn’t appear great. The defense should still be bad, and it remains to be seen whether Smith can offset any of the big-play void the Redskins lost in Kirk Cousins.
Buffalo Bills (+10000)
The Buffalo Bills doubled down on their defensive depth after selecting quarterback Josh Allen with the seventh overall pick. He figures to start immediately unless the staff is irrationally high on A.J. McCarron or Nathan Peterman. And that’s basically all we need to know in order to steer clear of the Bills.
Rookies very rarely have a high-end impact under center, and the Bills’ surrounding talent isn’t good enough to abbreviate his learning curve. They’ll need to overuse an aging LeSean McCoy, and no one quite knows whether wide receiver Kelvin Benjamin has what it takes to be a No. 1 option in an offense piloted by suboptimal and/or youthful quarterback play.
Detroit Lions (+5000)
Don’t bother trying to explain the Detroit Lions’ thought process—mostly because it’s inexplicable. Yes, they picked up some good players in the draft. Frank Ragnow is a solid guard/center, while defensive back Tracy Walker, selected at No. 82, is worth keeping an eye on.
But, like, the Lions have a 30-year-old Matthew Stafford under center. How did they not draft a wide receiver in the first or second round? Shoot, how did they not draft a wide receiver at all? They went with two running backs, but no real high-volume pass-catchers. That’s a problem for a team that counts Golden Tate and Marvin Jones as its two deadliest weapons. They needed to make a high-upside play after not doing so in free agency. That they didn’t suggests they’ll miss the playoffs for a second consecutive year.
New York Giants (+3000)
Overall, the New York Giants had a solid offseason. They beefed up the offensive line, tied up some loose ends on the defense and even gave quarterback Eli Manning a crutch he hasn’t ever known by drafting running back Saquon Barkley with the second-overall selection.
If both Sterling Shephard and Odell Beckham Jr. remain healthy, and if they can get some production from a clear-cut third pass-catcher, this could wind up being a sneaky-good squad. Indeed, there are always long-term concerns when selecting a halfback this high. Their shelf life typically spans no more than four years. This was very much a win-now play. And that’s just the thing: The Giants may be built to do that.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers (+6000)
The Tampa Bay Buccaneers’ defense should be noticeably better after the personnel they scooped up in the draft. Their middling offense, however, is a different story.
Tampa Bay added DeSean Jackson to pair with Mike Evans in free agency, which implies the coaching staff has faith in Jameis Winston’s ability to develop into an above-average quarterback. But unless rookie running back Ronald Jones, drafted at No. 38, provides an adequate safety net, the Bucs are still looking at a below-board attack unfit to make a postseason push.
Tennessee Titans (+4500)
Give some loose consideration to the Tennessee Titans entering this season. The offense should be more creative under head coach Mike Vrabel, and the team made the most of its few picks in the draft.
Most notably, the Titans’ defense appears as if it’s ready to leave the middle of the pack behind. They snagged linebacker Rashaan Evans and edge rusher Harold Landry—two guys who should be able to make their presences felt from the jump. Expect another season’s worth of playoff contention from the Titans, while monitoring for them to do potentially even more than that.
Indianapolis Colts (+6500)
Nothing has changed for the Indianapolis Colts on the heels of the draft. They brought in two stuff offensive guards, so they might be able to provide some consistent protection in the pocket for Andrew Luck for a change. But they’ll need him to be healthy first.
If Luck can stay on the field, they’ll be a threat. If he can’t, they’re staring down the barrel of another sub-.500 season. It’s that simple.
Kansas City Chiefs (+3000)
Yours truly has said it before, and he’ll say it again…at the risk of sounding unbelievably stupid: Sportsbooks continue to be too high on the Kansas City Chiefs.
All of their offensive options, from Kareem Hunt and Travis Kelce to Tyreke Hill and Sammy Watkins Jr. should make for a dangerous cocktail. And they boosted their defensive appeal by considerable margins, using five of their six draft picks on stopping power. But quarterback Patrick Mahomes has one career start under his belt. The Chiefs, along with the oddsmakers, seem to be banking on a Jimmy Garappolo-type developmental curve for him. That’s too ambitious for my tastes.
Baltimore Ravens (+4000)
Is it possible to both like and loathe the Baltimore Ravens’ draft at the same time? It turns out yes.
They assembled the tight end depth they needed and were smart to trade into the end of the first round for quarterback Lamar Jackson. But an offense with Joe Flacco as its first-string pass-flinger has a finite ceiling, and the Ravens don’t have the playmakers around him to guarantee another top-10 finish in points scored per game.
Carolina Panthers (+3300)
Get excited to see what Cam Newton can do with the fast and explosive D.J. Moore catching screen passes, corralling deep balls and just generally racking up a ton of yardage after the catch. The former MVP needed more weapons around him, and the Carolina Panthers arguably gave him the most talented one in the draft.
And don’t forget about defensive back Rashaan Gaulden. He could wind up being their most valuable addition down the line, and they didn’t pull him off the board until No. 85.
Nevertheless, it’s all about the offense in Carolina. If the Panthers get a leap from wideout Devin Funchess and Christian McCaffrey proves that he is capable of shouldering the backfield workload mostly on his own, this could be an under-the-radar contender pick.
Seattle Seahawks (+4500)
Go ahead and throw these odds in the trash. There’s no way they stand. The Seattle Seahawks got themselves a good ground-game egg in running back Rashaad Penny, but they’ve turned over most of their defense. Even if their collection of rookies plays up to snuff, they’re looking at another year outside the playoff picture. Consider funnelling investments elsewhere.
Atlanta Falcons (+2500)
Drafting Calvin Ridley made the Atlanta Falcons the subject of much controversy on draft night. On the one hand, inserting him into an offense that already touts Matt Ryan, Julio Jones and Mohamed Sanu is patently unfair. On the other hand, last year’s defensive success registered as a bit sustainable, and it seems like they could have done more to address it.
There’s also an inherent risk caked into Ryan’s recent extension. He’s now the highest paid quarterback in NFL history—until Aaron Rodgers gets his next contract in a couple weeks, that is. While he’s one of the better flamethrowers in the league, he’s coming off a relative down year. He bounced back toward the latter part of the schedule, along with the rest of the offense, but the Falcons are betting an awful lot on their less-than-stellar start being nothing more than a blip.
Dallas Cowboys (+3000)
The Dallas Cowboys’ draft was fine, and they’ll have the added benefit of Ezekiel Elliott not being suspended to start the year. But after cutting Dez Bryant and losing tight end Jason Witten to retirement, they seriously have to figure out whether they’ve given Dak Prescott the offensive weapons necessary to scrap in the NFC East.
For reference, as of now, their top three receiving options are Allen Hurns, Cole Beasley and Terrance Williams. How well they perform will be a barometer for the Cowboys’ entire year. Treat their preseason Super Bowl odds with the utmost of caution.
Denver Broncos (+4000)
Signing Case Keenum in free agency remains the Denver Broncos’ most important move of the offseason. But their draft was impressive as well. They added some defensive depth on the margins and selected a couple of extra receivers for good measure.
Assuming their defense returns to its usual top-10 glory, this could very easily be a playoff team once again.
Oakland Raiders (+4000)
The Oakland Raiders are getting a little too much love here. The amount of stock being placed in the offense is untenable.
Sure, giving Derek Carr options like Jordy Nelson, Amari Cooper and Jared Cook seems like a cheat code. But Cooper is the only one of the three still in the thick of his prime, and some serious questions remain about their defense—which continues to be chock full of wild cards and underachievers even after the draft.
Houston Texans (+2200)
We could blather on and on about the Houston Texans’ draft. They nabbed safety Justin Reid and tackle Martinas Rankin, and tight end Jordan Akins might be able to sneak his way into the main game plan’s fold before long. The Texans did good.
But none of it will mean anything if quarterback DeShaun Watson isn’t healthy. He is still their lifeline. J.J. Watt is the face of the franchise, but there’s only so much he can do from the defensive side. The Texans need a playmaker in and out of the pocket like Watson. Right now, his durability is the difference between them being a viable Super Bowl threat and a complete non-entity in this discussion.
Jacksonville Jaguars (+2000)
Picking defensive tackle Taven Bryan with the No. 29 selection was a curious move for the Jacksonville Jaguars. They already have a ton of talent on that side of the ball and could have used another wideout to spread the field for quarterback Blake Bortles and running back Leonard Fournette.
On the flip side, though, the Philadelphia Eagles just won a Super Bowl on the back of an incredibly deep defense. More importantly, the Jaguars haven’t done anything this offseason to hurt their offensive stock. They have the talent, on the surface, to promise an adequate encore to last year’s 10-win crusade.
Los Angeles Chargers (+2200)
Top-10 odds for the Los Angeles Chargers might feel a tad ambitious. After all, they didn’t even make the playoffs last year.
And yet, they wrapped 2017 with the third best defense in the league. They then used their first four picks on some extra defensive bodies, giving them the ammunition to compete for a second consecutive top-five finish.
From there, it’s just a matter of getting the offense in sync. Philip Rivers is an established star under center, and he should have full access to all of his weapons this season, with Keenan Allen and Melvin Gordon both expected to be healthy to start the year.
New Orleans Saints (+1800)
You will be hard-pressed to find anyone who supports what the New Orleans Saints did in the draft. They gave up a 2019 first-round pick, in addition to 2018 fifth-round pick, just to select edge rusher Marcus Davenport. And though he’ll have an immediate role in a defense that placed a surprisingly pleasant 10th in points allowed per game last season, this trade was a little to win-now for most people.
Immediately, however, the Saints are well off—a shoo-in for another top-five offensive ranking with the potential to improve upon the progress made on the defensive end last year.
San Francisco 49ers (+1800)
Bettors will go back and forth on this one—and rightfully so. The San Francisco 49ers are tough to peg.
Can Jimmy Garopplo pick up where he left off over the final half of last season after coming over from the New England Patriots? Does Richard Sherman have the juice to make plays in the secondary? Can wideout Dante Pettis make an impact as a rookie? Is Jerick McKinnon the answer at running back? What’s the defense’s realistic ceiling after ranking 25th in points allowed per game last year?
Answer all these questions in the affirmative, and the 49ers deserve every ounce of love they’re currently getting. But these aren’t dilemmas that will have a resolution before Week 4. So, at the bare minimum, holster your interest in the 49ers until the regular season is already underway. The potential return on investment isn’t nearly lucrative enough to entice you now.
Green Bay Packers (+1500)
Rumor has it quarterback Aaron Rodgers wasn’t too happy with the Green Bay Packers’ decision to move on from Jordy Nelson, his favorite target. But he still has Randall Cobb, Davante Adams and, now, Jimmy Graham, and the Packers went to great lengths to address some of their defensive issues in the draft.
Selecting cornerback Jaire Alexander at No. 18 is a particularly good move. Their secondary has been given them fits for a few years. He’ll help stabilize some of the inconsistency.
If nothing else, Rodgers is still Rodgers. His being healthy is all the Packers need. And that, it seems, is what they’re going to get to start the season. Awarding this squad some Super Bowl love leading into the summer is perfectly acceptable.
Minnesota Vikings (+1200)
The Minnesota Vikings will be fascinating to watch as the regular season progresses. They’re largely the same, yet markedly different following the addition of quarterback Kirk Cousins.
What they’re essentially trying to do is almost New Orleans Saints- or even Kansas City Chiefs-like: They want to wield a stingy defense and physical run game while maintaining the option of completing big-time plays through the air. Cousins is supposed to bring the latter with him; big plays were his bag while with the Washington Redskins.
That, by extension, renders the Vikings a really interesting Super Bowl picks. As long as you’re not worried about Cousins going belly up in a different-looking offense—which, frankly, could be considered possible—they’re among the gaggle of squads worth your preseason attention.
Los Angeles Rams (+900)
Landing receiver Brandin Cooks from the New England Patriots on draft night was a big-time move for the Los Angeles Rams. Their top-ranked offense was in a little bit of jeopardy after losing Sammy Watkins Jr. to the Kansas City Chiefs in free agency. Netting a playmaker like him offers them an extra dose of insurance.
Still, a +1000 for this team doesn’t sit right. The defense began to show cracks and warts to close the regular season last year, and they didn’t do anything of significant consequence to shake things up. Top-10 odds are fun. Top five, though? Those are a stretch.
Pittsburgh Steelers (+1200)
The Pittsburgh Steelers needed help in the secondary. They answered that call for improvement by drafting Safety Terrell Edmunds…at the end of the first round…when he probably still would have been there for them at the end of the second.
This isn’t a crippling choice by any means. Nor is their decision to part ways with wide receiver Martavis Bryant. Their defense is better after the draft, and they selected a nice receiver, in James Washington, to help make up some of the long-yardage capacity they lost with Bryant.
As always, the Steelers’ ceiling is tethered quarterback Ben Roelthisberger—the 36-year-old who was not happy they took another pass-flinger in the third round.
Philadelphia Eagles (+900)
Did the reigning champion Philadelphia Eagles really, truthfully, actually bolster their title-winning defense in the draft while expanding their depth at tight end? Yes. Yes, they did.
With Carson Wentz coming back, it’s safe to say the Eagles are right where they belong. Replicating last season’s magic could prove difficult, but let’s not forget Wentz was an MVP candidate before going down. Having him back, coupled with a defense that should contend for top-five status, gives them a stronghold on the NFC East.
New England Patriots (+600)
The New England Patriots may have selected the next star running back for their system in Sony Michel, because of course they did. Their draft wasn’t necessarily mesmerizing aside from that, but they filled some gaps on the defensive side and took a few worthy flyers at the offensive end.
Cause for real concern is hard to find unless you’re worried a soon-to-be 41-year-old Tom Brady will fall off, or unless you’re legitimately worried about the relationship between him and head coach Bill Belichick. Don’t be.
Brady is getting older, yes. But he showed few signs of falling off next year, and the Patriots have the system to maximize his quick-fire, short-yardage throws. And as for his relationship with the head coach, things haven’t been peachy keen with them for a while. The Patriots have dominated anyway. That won’t change now.
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