Super Bowl 52 Closing Lines Picks
Super Bowl 52 odds come courtesy of TopBet and are accurate as of the morning of Sunday, Feb. 4. While it’s unlikely any of these odds will change between now and kickoff, please be sure to check them out again before placing your wager.
Patriots vs. Eagles: Who Ya Got?
Closing spread: New England Patriots -4.5
Closing moneyline: New England Patriots (-165)/Philadelphia Eagles (+195)
Closing Over/Under: 48.5
True to form, these lines haven’t changed much since the middle of the week. The New England Patriots remain 4.5-point favorites over the Philadelphia Eagles—which, let’s face it, is kind of surprising.
Because they should be favored by even more.
People keep touting the Eagles’ defense, and the praise is well-deserved. They finished the regular season fourth in points allowed per game and own one of the three best rushing preventions in the league. They’ve also only given up a combined 17 points through their first two playoff tilts.
But these are the Patriots. They’re quarterbacked by Tom Brady, who not only just posted the third highest completion percentage of his entire career, but who plays behind one of the NFL’s best offensive lines and has the green light to air it out between 40 and 50 times a night.
The Eagles don’t have the secondary stamina to hold up against that kind of volume. Though they were fourth in interceptions during the regular season, those picks are the result of serial gambling. They’re 17th in passing yards allowed per game and 16th in reception touchdowns relinquished; they can be picked apart by the right QB.
Styming both the Atlanta Falcons and Minnesota Vikings is impressive. But neither a slumping Matt Ryan nor Case Keenum, respectively, is Tom Brady. The Patriots, in large part because of him, are a different beast altogether.
Even if star tight end Rob Gronkowski is on a snap-count limit after going through the NFL’s concucussion protocol, Brady can dish the ball off to Brandin Cooks or Danny Amendola. Heck, even James White and Chris Hogan will get some run. New England has the type of depth to navigate whatever warts exist elsewhere.
And it’s not like the Eagles offense is guaranteed to do them any favors. They hung 27 points on the Vikings in the NFC title game, backed by three touchdown tosses from Nick Foles, but they’re still trotting out a backup quarterback. Foles wasn’t spectacular to finish the regular season, nor was he particularly impactful during the Divisional round.
The Eagles are barely averaging 21 points per game with him under center. That won’t be enough against the Patriots. And you can’t bank on that total climbing just because of the Patriots either. Their defense remains largely untested, having only faced a handful of top-end offenses the entire year. But they’ve given both Marcus Mariota and Blake Bortles fits in the postseason, and they’ll be able to put the same kind of pressure on Foles if he’s not picture-perfect out of the pocket.
None of this is meant to disrespect the Eagles. They’ve scrapped and clawed their way here ever after losing an MVP candidate in Carson Wentz. But never once, in any Super Bowl, has a defensive identity done in the Brady-led Patriots. They’ve lost 11th-hour shootouts to Eli Manning. That’s it.
Philadelphia doesn’t have that firepower that same firepower at is disposal without Wentz. As much we want this game to be competitive, and as much as the lines suggest it will be, the smart bet is on talent winning out. So that’s where we’ll put our money.
By the by, as for the over/under, a 48.5 total could, quite literally, go either way. The Eagles would prefer to control possession time on the ground rather than test the Patriots through the air, and both defenses have shown the ability to gum things up for the other side.
Still, seven of the last nine Super Bowls have seen the participants clear 49 points or more. It’s tough to imagine that changing—especially with the way Brady gets New England’s offense humming. And should the Eagles fall behind early, they’ll have no choice other than to indulge a shootout.
The Pick: New England Patriots (-4.5/-165) with the over
All stats come courtesy of Pro-Football-Reference and are accurate leading into Super Bowl 52.
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