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The Detroit Lions flashed a buy sign for bettors this weekend. Sure, some of that had to with their impressive 36-21 win at Oakland. But a small, lingering mystery was unraveled over the weekend that sheds some light on the current state of the Lions’ organization. The Raiders were quarterbacked by former Lion backup Josh McCown. During the offseason McCown had requested a trade, and GM Matt Millen complied with McCown’s wishes pretty quickly by trading him to Oakland along with megabust WR Mike Williams. There was some speculation that McCown’s departure was part of head coach Rod Marinelli’s attempt to clean house of anyone not buying into the new program.

In the week leading up to the game McCown had plenty of nice things to say about his former teammates as well as the coaching staff. The words were nice enough, but this is standard operating prcedure in the NFL. You don’t want to give an opponent any bulletin board material if you can at all help it. But sure enough when the teams took the field there was plenty of friendly contact between McCown and his former comrades. When the Lions’ defensive line knocked McCown down they picked him up, often accompanied with some friendly banter. After the game McCown spent plenty of time with his ex-teammates and was effusive with praise for them in postgame interviews.

Turns out the reason McCown wanted out of Detroit really was the reason he had given all along: he thought he could still play well enough to start in the NFL and wanted another shot somewhere else. But he made it clear this past week that he liked being in Detroit, and felt bad that he was leaving a good situation and a good locker room where something positive was being built for the future. And that is a sentiment that hasn’t been heard from ex-Lion in a very, very long time.

I hate to have to revisit the Rams situation so soon after penning a piece fulsome with praise for offensive coordinator Greg Olson. All Pro LT Orlando Pace was injured late in the first half of this past weekend’s 27-13 loss to Carolina. Pace will miss the rest of the season after tearing the labrum and rotator cuff in his right shoulder. Pace missed the last half of the 2006 season with a triceps injury, and it took a big toll on QB Marc Bulger’s performance. The loss of the veteran Pace puts more pressure on a very young offensive line. The interior is made up of a pair of 2nd-year starters, one of whom has only seven starts under his belt. The other is a first year starter. The guy most likely to replace Pace is the right tackle Alex Barron, who himself was drafted in 2005. Last season the Rams were able to rely on veteran Todd Steussie to fill in for Pace, but Steussie is injured too and won’t be available until the second half of the season. Greg Olson has his work cut out for him, and it might be awhile before he comes up with a solution.

Last week I wrote some college football previews of teams in my backyard of southeast Michigan; now its time to turn the NFL and our lovable(?) local losers the Detroit Lions. The beginning of year 2 under HC Rod Marinelli has seen a number of changes in his staff. His son-in-law Joe Barry has been brought in as defensive coordinator. The longtime special teams coach Chuck Priefer retired and has been replaced by his protege Stan Kwan. On the offensive side of the ball Mike Martz got rid of line coach Larry Beightol and brought on an old friend and colleague, Jim Colletto. Some of you might remember Colletto as Purdue’s head coach during the Mike Alstott years.

Bringing in Joe Barry has been a definite plus. Donnie Henderson didn’t get along with Marinelli, though its tough to blame Henderson. The impression was left early on that Henderson was merely keeping the seat warm for Barry as he still had a year left on his contract in Tampa, and the Buccaneers would not let him go. With Barry and Marinelli on the same page the transition has been quite smooth.

Unfortunately, Barry has the same lack of talent to deal with that Henderson did. The back seven(LB’s and DB’s) is amongst the very worst in the NFL. Paris Lenon is almost certainly the worst starting MLB in the NFL. 2nd year man Ernie Sims is the only bright spot in the linebacking corps over on the strong side. The secondary is woeful too. And it got worse when 2nd year safety Daniel Bullocks was recently lost for the entire season with a torn up knee. Bullocks had been one of the bright spots in camp too.

There is one unit on the defensive side that will improve this season, and that is the line. Last year’s biggest problem on the line was DT Shaun Rogers. Well, his absence actually. Rogers played only four games, and his presence was sorely missed. The Lions gave up 94 yards per game on the ground with Rogers in the lineup. When not in the lineup they gave up 149 yards per game. Marinelli has tried to fix this through a combination of the draft, free agent signings and just plain coaching. DeWayne White was signed away from Tampa Bay to play primarily on the end, though he can fill in at DT too if necessary. White has looked ok in camp. In the draft the Lions picked up Hawaii grad Ikaika Alama-Francis. Francis is exceptionally fast and has fantastic hands. He will see extensive playing time on the left end with White. Last season when Rogers left the team, Marinelli moved backup end Corey Redding inside to take his place. Redding responded with the best season of his career, notching 8 sacks in just 11 games. Redding’s weak spot was rush defense, as it simply took longer for him to learn those responsibilities as a tackle. Those problems seem to have been ironed out and Corey is expected to be much better against the run this season. Over at right defensive end is Kalimba Edwards. Edwards has been a bust his entire career in Detroit, and his first season under line guru Marinelli wasn’t much better. Marinelli made Edwards his persona project this past offseason. Only time will tell if Edwards has made progress rushing the quarterback, but his rush defense really has been upgraded. With or without Shaun Rogers this entire defensive line will be much better against opposing running backs.

In 2006 the arrival of offensive genius Mike Martz had immediate impact. With an overall cast of characters that might have been worse than the 2005 lineup, the Lions managed to improve their season long output by 55 points. This despite a swiss cheese offensive line that got worse as the season wore on, a backfield decimated by injuries, and a 34 year old journeyman QB. This season every area of the offense has been upgraded. The offensive line has much better pass blocking with the addition of Edwin Mulitalo and George Foster, though the run blocking still looks quite poor. RB Kevin Jones will likely miss the first couple of games as his recovery from a lisfranc injury finishes up. Tatum Bell was brought in from Denver as a backup along with TJ Duckett. The receiving corp has made a major leap forward with the addition of WR Calvin Johnson from Georgia Tech. Getting Johnson effectively gives the Lions TWO new players, as last year’s #2 WR Mike Furrey will be moved into the #3 slot. Furrey put up good numbers in 2006, but he really doesn’t have the body to be a true #2 guy. But at the #3 slot he owns a large advantage over most the NFL’s nickel backs. Shaun McDonald has been added to the roster as the #4 receiver. McDonald knows Martz’ offense and should see plenty of playing time.

The one area on the offensive roster that is definitely weaker is the QB spot. Jon Kitna is 35 years old. Last season he managed to take every snap, which is amazing considering the punishment he took. Now he should take fewer hits this season, thanks to a better OL and better receivers. But should Kitna go down the Lions are in big trouble. Experienced 2006 backup Josh McCown is gone; he asked for a trade and was sent to Oakland. 2nd round draftee Drew Stanton is out for the season with an injury. Backing up Kitna are the vagabond JT O’Sullivan and Dan Orlovsky. Any progress the Lions make over their 3-13 record in 2006 depends on Kitna staying healthy. From an ATS standpoint I don’t think the Lions are a “buy” or a “sell”. But the Lions are capable of soaring OVER just about any total Vegas can post. And teaser players should look out as well. Teasing either side of a Lions game will be hazardous. With a weak running game Detroit will not be playing it safe with a 2nd half lead, and opposing teams will have a harder time sitting on leads themselves thanks to a better run defense. Wild scores will be the norm, not the exception in 2007.

Well, if you followed the previews here of the college teams local to OSB, you should have cleaned up. This space predicted dire things for Michigan, Eastern Michigan and Central Michigan. Eastern went to 6-25 ATS versus non-con opponents with a dismal 27-3 loss at Pittsburgh, Central was spanked 52-7 by Kansas, and Michigan of course became the first ranked team in history to lose to a I-AA(now called “FCS”) team, 34-32 to Appalachian State.

There are some important new developments in the outlooks for both Central Michigan and Eastern Michigan. In Central’s case, it is not much of a surprise they had problems on the offensive side of the ball. The surprise was on the defensive side. CMU’s rush defense was non-existent. The Chips allowed more than 200 yards on about 30+ carries to Kansas’ top two backs.

Former HC Brian Kelley had a rep as a guy who really liked to craft offensive schemes and was an above average play caller. True enough. But he got his start in coaching as a position coach - specifically LINEBACKERS. When he came to CMU, their rushing D was in the bottom 5 in Div IA. Kelley took some personal time with the linebacking corps, and they shaved 50+ yards per game the first season off the defensive rushing total. Unfortunately from a betting perspective, they host another team on the decline this weekend: Toledo. If CMU wins that game it should set up good opportunities down the road to fade the Chippewas.

Eastern Michigan showed some interesting things that should lead to future profits. The safety plays is horrible, and EMU should not be able to stop any decent passing attack that really wants to gain thru the air. But EMU does have some talent in the front seven; one good linebacker and a stud on the defensive line. But they attract a lot of attention, and in the late third quarter began to fade under the pressure. I’d expect EMU to fade in the second half often this season.

More later……

NOTE: Here is another in my series of 2007 team previews of teams from my home state of Michigan. Still on deck are previews of Michigan State and the Detroit Lions.

Can an Eastern Michigan team that finished 1-11 in 2006 fall any further? Yes, yes they can. To some eyes it seemed like EMU head coach Jeff Genyk had things pointed in the right direction in 2005. That season the Eagles lost four games by a total of 7 points en route to a 4-7 mark. Just turn those close ones around and you’ve got a winning record, right? No, not even close. In 2006 the quarterback situation became a disaster, and the defense kept up the school’s recent tradition of not coming remotely close to stopping anyone’s offense. All of the so-called positive strides made in 2005 were wiped away.

Some will point to EMU’s 2006 results and note that six of EMU’s eleven losses were by 8 points or less. Don’t get fooled; the Eagles stink, and they might just be worse this season. They lost more than 50% of reciever production with the graduation of Trumaine Riley and Eric Deslauriers. Deslauriers was the most prolific WR in school history and owns school records for catches, receiving yards, and receiving touchdowns. That is an impressive resume for a guy who had bad work habits his first two seasons. He was the Eagles’ only legitimate deep threat, and there is no one on this roster who can take his place in 2007.

Let’s give you an idea of just how bad the talent level is down at the bottom of Div I. Deslauriers didn’t get drafted by the NFL this spring. That isn’t a big deal; with a draft of only seven rounds plenty of decent college players don’t get drafted. Undrafted players make NFL rosters and especially practice squads all the time. Deslauriers and a bunch of other no-names were signed as rookie free agents by the Pittsburgh Steelers on April 30. So is the guy still sticking with the Steelers? Umm, no. He’s been cut already. In fact, he was cut a while ago. On June 28. The guy who owns the EMU receiving record book ain’t good enough to even make it to an NFL training camp.

You may have noticed that I haven’t yet mentioned any players on the 2007 EMU roster. That’s because it isn’t necessary. Outside of the punter Zach Johnson, they are almost all pretty bad. Johnson is on the Preseason Ray Guy Watch List for the nation’s top punter. That’s right; the best player on the 2007 EMU roster is the punter. Isn’t that all you really need to know?

So let’s talk about the coaching staff instead. Jeff Genyk has had a hard time at EMU assembling a good group of assistants. Over the years he’s had a number of coaching prospects actually refuse job offers to come to EMU. As a result Genyk has been forced to hire a lot of youngsters looking for their first job. Not their first coaching job necessarily. Their first real job PERIOD. Of the entire 2006 coaching staff, SEVEN guys had received their sheepskins in this century(2000 or later). I’m not going to canvas the entire Div I coaching ranks to verify this, but I think its safe to say that EMU has the youngest group in the country, and its showing on the field.

Now that I’ve established that EMU will stink in 2007, the question to answer is can you make money betting on Eastern Michigan in 2007? After all, the Eagles were 6-6 ATS in in 2006. If Sophmore QB Andy Schmitt stays healthy, and Junior RB Tyler Jones develops into a decent MAC-level runner, the Eagles might flash a buy sign with the right setup.

Genyk will certainly have his charges up to play Northwestern at Ford Field in Detroit on October 19. Genyk was a Northwestern assistant before being hired at EMU. These two teams met in 2006, with EMU getting the cover by holding the Wildcats to just 14 points AT Northwestern. That was probably the Eagles’ best defensive performance in Genyk’s tenure. The Ford Field game is a great recruiting tool for EMU, so you can count on a good effort. The other game that might set up well for EMU would be the season-ender at Central Michigan. Genyk feels that CMU and EMU should be natural rivals and has had his team jacked up to play the Chippewas in each of the past 3 seasons. As a result all of those games went to overtime, something that has not happened anywhere else in Div I over that time.

But other than those two games, if you have reason to bet on EMU in 2007 it will likely be because you are betting AGAINST Eastern’s opponent.

Sure I’m a handicapper, but I’m a fan too. As a Michigander I grew up pining for the day Bo Shembechler would show up on my doorstep and ask me to wear the Maize & Blue. So every year when the preseason polls rank Michigan highly enough to contend for the national title I start daydreaming. This year the AP & USA Today polls both have Michigan in the #5 slot, just behind Texas and ahead of Florida.

I’d love to believe those polls, but someone behind them is smoking crack. Why on Earth are Michigan rated so highly? Well, from most of the stories I read, the offense is supposed to be dynamite. They certainly won’t stink, I’ll grant that. But let’s look a little closer. Top RB? Senior Mike Hart has been for 3 seasons now. Over that time Hart has averaged 4.9 yards per carry. Nice, but an elite back in college football these days has to run for at least 5 yards per carry.

Who is the QB? Its senior Chad Henne, who like Hart is in his 4th season manning the QB spot. Is Henne a premier college QB? Some of the numbers say so. His lowest NCAA QB rating is 129.61, which aint to shabby. 2006 saw Henne average 7.65 yards per pass attempt, putting him well up amongst the star QB’s of the NCAA. That’s the upside; now for another look. Henne simply has not grown much as a QB since his freshman year. He still tends to stare down receivers, and he often has a problem keeping his feet still when the pocket begins to collapse. As a result Henne takes too many sacks, considering how good UM’s OL has been over the last 3 years.

Last season Lloyd Carr decided the running game needed revamping, so the offensive staff decided to change run blocking schemes to something ostensibly similar to the zone blocking schemes made popular by the Denver Broncos. Reportedly the Minnesota Gophers, who ran that scheme for several years, and were a big influence on Michigan’s switch. Which is odd, because Michigan’s version of the zone blocking scheme looked nothing like either Denver or Minnesota’s. It looks more like the old “Student Body Right” that USC ran back when OJ Simpson was there. For the offensive linemen it looks about as simple as can be. Just run upfield at the snap to either side and block anyone that gets in your way.

The defense has its share of problems too. The 2006 squad was loaded with talent, and the advantage of a brand new defensive coordinator. Ron English completely revamped the complicated schemes of former DC Jim Hermann. Out with the complicated packages that depended on a cornerback’s ability to defend man-to-man, and in with a fairly simple soft zone coverage setup that put a priority on pursuit, both in the secondary and on the front line. English put the entire defense on a weight loss regimen designed to increase speed. It worked for 11 games.

Then came Ohio State. And Jim Tressel made it look easy. He figured that if the Michigan defenders were no longer used to covering man-to-man, why not spread the defensive alignment out with four and five receiver sets and force Michigan’s secondary into man coverage? And it worked like a charm. English took responsibility for the debacle, and promised a new and improved defense when the Wolverines met USC in the Rose Bowl. It worked for a half. At the break the USC braintrust made adjustments, and in the 2nd half they moved the ball just like Ohio State did.

You can bet the Big 10 coaching staffs pored over the tapes of the OSU and USC games looking for ways to duplicate their success. Last year Lloyd Carr managed to turn the Wolverines from the hunted into the hunters, and it almost worked. This season the tables are turned. The offense is explosive but predictable, and the defense lost a lot of talent to the pros. Michigan will end the season with another gaudy record, but bettors will find backing UM to be a chancy proposition. The 2007 Wolverines are overrated. Buyer beware!