Experts remain overwhelmingly split on the betting odds for the 2022 Sugar Bowl showdown between Baylor and Ole Miss on Saturday, January 1, at 8:45 p.m. eastern standard time.
This is all to say, there is no consensus when it comes to college football picks on the 2022 Sugar Bowl. Will Baylor take down Ole Miss? Or will the Rebels' offense take center stage against the Bears? We're hoping to find the answer.
Let's begin with a look at the latest 2022 Sugar Bowl betting odds from BetOnline:
All betting odds on college football are incredibly fluid this time of year. Bowl-game moneylines are being published weeks in advance and are subject to shift up until kickoff. Make sure you're confirming all college football odds prior to settling on any 2022 Sugar Bowl picks.
As you wait for all these hyper-important college football matchups to take place, it's also a good idea to browse through out portfolio of online sportsbook reviews for the top betting sites. If you do, the chances are you'll find a home for all your college football betting.
2022 Sugar Bowl Picks
Our 2022 Sugar Bowl betting picks will begin with predicting the winner of Baylor vs. Ole Miss. From there, we will move on to odds for the Sugar Bowl point spread and for the Sugar Bowl over/under betting lines.
Please note all of our 2022 Sugar Bowl predictions were made on December 13. If any sudden injuries take place thereafter, or if certain teams find out select players will sit out because they've declared for the 2022 NFL draft, you'll want to see how such breaking news has impacted betting odds on the Sugar Bowl.
On to the Sugar Bowl betting picks!
Baylor's Defense Gets Ole Miss to Fold in Sugar Bowl
Baylor would be a much heavier favorite in this matchup if the general college football betting community could trust their offense. They're 37th in points scored per game on the season, but their standing is actually worse than that. Baylor has not topped 30 points in a game since the end of October.
Though they do have a 66.9 percent completion rate on all passes, they're just not the type of team that can beat you downfield. They prefer to manage the clock and make second- and third-rung plays over the middle of the field. Their risk aversion is part of why they barely turn the ball over one time per game.
Fortunately for Baylor, they have a harrowing defense. They continue to force roughly two turnovers per game, and though they give up over five yards per play on average, their bandwidth for breaking up or picking off passes in the secondary gives them huge upside.
This is not meant to imply Ole Miss' case is hopeless. Head Coach Lane Kiffin has once again cobbled together a top-tier offense. Ole miss is completing nearly 68 percent of their passes, and quarterback Matt Corral has been picked off just four times all season. They are not going to help out Baylor by making mistakes.
Nevertheless, Ole Miss' defense leaves much to be desired. They simply can't stop the run, which is probably the strongest area of Baylor's offensive attack. That doesn't bode well for them in this one.
OSB Prediction: Baylor (-124)
Bet on Baylor to Cover Point Spread vs. Ole Miss
Here are the current betting odds on the 2022 Sugar Bowl point spread:
- Baylor (-1.5): -115
- Ole Miss (+1.5): -105
There's no decision for us to make here. If Baylor wins, it's overwhelmingly likely that victory comes by more than two points. In fact, you're better off betting on the Baylor moneyline, which is currently paying out slightly better.
OSB Prediction: Baylor will cover at their six-point spread (-110)
Here the current over/under betting odds for the 2022 Sugar Bowl:
- Over 55 points: -112
- Under Under points: -108
This Sugar Bowl betting prediction is a doozy. On the one hand, Baylor and Ole Miss are combining for nearly 70 points per game on the season—an average much higher than this over/under of 55 points. On the other hand, Baylor's dearth of big-play potential suggests even Ole Miss' defense will be able to hang with them, and we already know how stingy the Bears' defense will be from just about all areas of the field.
Invest in the over at your own risk. Put another way: Unless you believe Baylor's backfield combination of Abram Smith and Trestan Ebner are going to run roughshod over Ole Miss' front seven, this game is probably going to wind up being a lower-scoring slog.
Bet the under, and feel mostly good about it.
OSB Prediction: Bet on Baylor and Ole Miss to stay under 55 points (-108)
Take a look at this list of the top online sportsbooks so you can decide which one to use for all your college football betting: