Latest UFC Betting Updates This Month | UFC 331 Futures, August Fight Nights & Market Moves | August 2026

By Eric Uribe, Updated on: Aug 17, 2026

Largest UFC line movements this August

One of the biggest edges you can ever have as a bettor is to spot line movements. By that, we mean when odds swing big-time in one direction.

This could be due to news (an injury happened) or, and this is where the edge lies, betting activity. Say if sharp bettors (aka professionals) are piling on one side of the bet, they might know something. That’s not to say they’re never wrong, but they’re pros for a reason, and you should at least be aware of which side of a wager they’re leaning toward.

We want to share some of the biggest line shifts we’ve seen in the last few weeks. It’s on you to act or not act on this info, but you should know how odds are shifting in real time. Here are some examples:

• Bettors pushed down Umar Nurmagomedov’s odds: Nurmagomedov opened as high as -700 against Song Yadong, who was around +500. That price did not last long. Nurmagomedov is now available around -480, with Song near +420. That is still a substantial correction without any major injury or fight news causing it. And guess what? We still think it’s too darn high. Don’t be surprised if this line moves again as we get closer to the Shanghai card.
• The UFC 331 main event has moved toward Joshua Van: Alexandre Pantoja opened around -120, with Van near -105. The market has since flipped, with Van now available at approximately -120 and Pantoja around -105. It remains a closely matched title fight, and the favorite could continue to vary between sportsbooks.

🚨 BREAKING: The UFC just announced the main card for UFC 331 on September 19 👀

Main Event - Joshua Van vs Alexandre Pantoja

Co-main Event - Arman Tsarukyan vs Mauricio Ruffy pic.twitter.com/Wgws22FV2p

— Championship Rounds (@ChampRDS) August 5, 2026

UFC fight odds we’re fading

One of the clear signs of a successful bettor is evaluating fights not just in terms of style or who wins, but in terms of betting value for the given wager. Simply put, the best bettors stay away from fights if the risk-reward ratio isn’t there.

That is why we use this section to highlight markets where the moneyline may be priced too heavily toward one side. In those cases, skipping the bet or considering the underdog may offer better value.

Admittedly, these suggestions will be harder to come by. Most UFC bookies are pros and adjust lines quickly if one side of the betting market is getting too thick. But, a few things do slip by, and we’ll try to call them out here, including this one:

• Arman Tsarukyan’s UFC 331 moneyline is not a guaranteed bet: Tsarukyan is one of the best lightweights in the world, but laying nearly -385 against Mauricio Ruffy feels too rich for our liking. Tsarukyan has the wrestling, experience and five-round conditioning to control this fight, but Ruffy enters on a three-fight winning streak and carries legitimate knockout power. We’re not saying Tsarukyan is losing here, but don’t throw his moneyline into a big parlay and assume you’re safe. At around +300, Ruffy presents some dangerous upset potential.

UFC betting markets we’re watching right now

These upcoming UFC markets feature short favorites, dangerous underdogs and prop bets that may offer more value than the straight moneyline.

Joshua Van vs. Alexandre Pantoja: UFC 331 features one of the closest upcoming title-fight markets. Van is currently around a -120 favorite, with former champion Pantoja hovering near -105. Their first fight ended after Pantoja suffered an arm injury just 26 seconds into the opening round, leaving bettors without much useful evidence about how the matchup plays out over five rounds. Van’s recent title defense and Pantoja’s championship experience make both sides appealing at near-even odds.

Arman Tsarukyan vs. Mauricio Ruffy: The five-round UFC 331 co-main event could have major implications for the lightweight title picture. Tsarukyan is approximately a -385 favorite, with Ruffy available around +300. Tsarukyan’s wrestling and experience explain the wide line, but Ruffy’s finishing ability could make the underdog moneyline and method-of-victory markets worth monitoring.

Anthony Hernandez vs. Gregory Rodrigues: This August 22 main event is a sneaky good fight that’s flying under the radar. If anything, it’ll be interesting and likely feature a finish. Hernandez is a good wrestler and fights with a lot of pace. Rodrigues would rather plant his feet and try to take out his opponent’s head. Odds are now more widely available, with Hernandez around a -170 favorite and Rodrigues near +160. Rodrigues’ knockout power could make the underdog price appealing, although bettors should compare the latest lines before placing a wager.

Previous UFC betting news you might've missed

• [August 15]: Islam Makhachev successfully defended the UFC welterweight title against Ian Machado Garry by unanimous decision at UFC 330. Mackenzie Dern also retained the strawweight title with a unanimous-decision win over Gillian Robertson.
• [August 8]: Quillan Salkilld recorded the biggest win of his career by submitting Mateusz Gamrot with a rear-naked choke in the first round of the UFC Vegas 120 main event.
• [August 1]: Uros Medic stopped Daniel Rodriguez just 30 seconds into the UFC Belgrade main event. Navajo Stirling also defeated former light heavyweight champion Jan Blachowicz by first-round TKO.
• [July 18]: Dricus du Plessis manhandled the former welterweight champ, Kamaru Usman, for five rounds to earn a lopsided unanimous decision. Afterward, Du Plessis called for a trilogy against current champion Sean Strickland, whom he has already beaten twice. The UFC could make him fight Brendan Allen first, while Nassourdine Imavov also has a strong claim to the next title opportunity. Either way, DDP is officially back in the championship conversation.
• [July 11]: UFC 329 ended with Max Holloway defeating Conor McGregor by first-round TKO after McGregor suffered a knee injury 69 seconds into the main event. Paddy Pimblett also strengthened his lightweight title case by submitting Benoit Saint Denis with a D’Arce choke just 52 seconds into the co-main event.
• [July 11]: Olympic gold medalist Gable Steveson made a statement in his UFC debut, stopping Elisha Ellison in the first round at UFC 329. The win was so dominant that many already believe he has UFC heavyweight title potential despite barely picking up MMA in the last two years.
• [July 2026]: UFC heavyweight champion Tom Aspinall says he’s fully healthy, back in training, and has already told the UFC he’s ready to fight whenever and wherever. The obvious matchup is a rematch with interim champion Ciryl Gane after their first meeting ended in a no contest because of Gane’s accidental eye pokes. Multiple eye surgeries stemming from that bout threatened Aspinall’s career, but he appears to be back to normal (or so he says).
• [July 2026]: Alex Pereira decided not to formally appeal his controversial knockout loss to Gane at UFC White House, despite accusing Gane of landing illegal strikes to the back of his head. Pereira has also ruled out returning to light heavyweight and is targeting a heavyweight comeback at Madison Square Garden in November.

Meet the author

Eric Uribe

Sports betting writer covering regulation, market trends, and industry news. Journalist by trade with a background in sports reporting across Nevada. Focuses on legalization, tax policy, revenue, and betting market developments. Combines betting knowledge with busine...