College Basketball Betting Headlines This Month | Michigan's Top Post now a Question Mark Market Watch & Analysis | July, 2026

The NBA Draft has officially concluded, but that doesn’t mean college basketball has slowed down in July as it pertains to player and coach movement. While Duke and Florida remain tied atop the national championship odds futures rankings at +620 (they have moved some from last report when they registered at +650), one of the biggest recent stories has been the change of head coach leadership over at the University of Michigan. After leading the Wolverines to a national title last season, head coach Dusty May departed for the NBA’s Mavericks, creating additional uncertainty around one of the nation’s top programs. Michigan, though, has retained the bulk of its players and remains a strong contender at +1300 (which has not changed since the June update) thanks to its returning talent and recent success, but the coaching transition cannot be ignored as one of the offseason’s biggest storylines.

Another notable development came with Milan Momcilovic, who was perhaps one of the most coveted players in the transfer portal and just committed to Kentucky. His decision now gives the Wildcats one of the best frontcourts in the country, but they still have a lot of work to do, as evidenced by their +5000 mark to win the national title next year. However, accruing proven production is often one of the biggest drivers of offseason betting movement, and Momcilovic’s return has certainly boosted Kentucky’s case as a contender in the tough SEC.

So, for this month’s update, OSB will be going over the latest futures impacting the sport, odds movement, and also some other fantastic insights you can only find at the OSB sports betting guide.

In this portion of the report, OSB, as always, will be focusing on the top of the college basketball world and the main contenders duking it out for the title next year. This core of teams is the oddsmakers’ predicted top dogs for next season.

Largest futures, outright and win total shifts

Regarding how odds have shifted since the recent end of the college basketball season, there have been some minor updates. OSB will be going over how the top heavyweights have changed since the last update in terms of their odds range for potentially taking home the national championship.

• In a prior OSB updates, Florida has seen a steady rise to the top of the rankings. This movement has shown the Gators going from +1000 to +1400, then +750, +650, and now at +620. This has been due to a couple of factors. Florida won the national title in 2025, so while they did not repeat as champions, head coach Todd Golden has shown he can win it all. Additionally, Florida retained several key pieces after the NBA Draft period, and also landing players like Boogie Fland and Xavian Lee has only bolstered their numbers with new money coming into the market.
• Michigan is flat from our last update, still coming in at +1300. Per a recent report, Michigan basketball has not officially lost any players to the transfer portal as a result of Dusty May leaving for the Dallas Mavericks. Out of the 14 players on the roster, nine have explicitly announced they will stay at Michigan under interim head coach Mike Boynton Jr., with no players announcing plans to leave.
• Regarding the prospective tiers of teams in the latest national title futures rankings, they are as follows and have seen some change at the top: the top two squads under +1000 odds are Duke and Florida, who are registered at +620. Then, comprising the next tier between +1000 and +2000 are UConn (+1000, which is up from +11000), Illinois (+1300), Michigan (+1300), along with Michigan State (+1600) and Arkansas (+1900), ending with the Arizona Wildcats rounding out this portion, falling from +1700 to +2000. Since the last update, both MSU and Arkansas have leapfrogged Arizona in the rankings.
• Regarding the Wildcats, Arizona’s move from roughly +1700 to +2000 is perhaps less about something the Wildcats did wrong and more about the other teams around them strengthening their cases. Moreover, Arizona has not had a major offseason move as well. Unlike Kentucky (Momcilovic) or Florida (key roster retention and portal success), Arizona’s offseason has been fairly quiet. Without a headline-grabbing addition or major roster boost, the Wildcats have simply been passed by teams generating stronger positive momentum.
• Another running team to highlight here in each installment will be the UConn Huskies. Coach Hurley’s squad has moved to +1000 following steady bumps from +1100 in the last update and+1200 in the one before that. The Huskies return the bulk of their crew from last season, including the likes of Silas Demary Jr. and Braylon Mullins. Not much has happened since the last update other than guard Solo Ball taking a medical redshirt and former players Alex Karaban and Tarris Reed Jr. being selected in the NBA Draft.

Key transfers and roster changes affecting odds

With the transfer portal closing and a couple of other late transfers heading to new places, the main storyline has been the aftershocks of the NBA Draft. For instance, Momcilovic heading to Kentucky is a huge development along with some other big-time developments over in the SEC which is always a dominant hoops conference.

• Momcilovic now being at Kentucky (+3500) is perhaps the biggest offseason player development because he was arguably the best player to enter the transfer portal after the NBA Draft withdrawal deadline. The Wildcats not only landed a good starter, but they also picked up a proven All-Big 12 forward and one of the nation’s elite shooters. Momcilovic led the nation in three-point shooting percentage last season at Iowa State and is one of the premier floor spacers in the country.
• Florida (+620) certainly has gotten a lot of love in these reports before, but picking up Boogie Fland could perhaps shake out to be the biggest move of the offseason. After giving Arkansas a spark as a freshman, Fland transferred to SEC rival Florida, giving coach Golden another elite playmaker to pair with an already talented roster. Combined with these key returning players, Fland’s arrival is one of the main reasons for Florida’s odds rising.
• Finally, though this technically is not a player transfer, Dusty May leaving Michigan is still one of the biggest offseason developments affecting futures. After May announced he was leaving for the pros, some questioned whether Michigan’s championship roster would stay intact. Since then, though, several key players, including transfer center Moustapha Thiam and forward J.P. Estrella, have all reaffirmed their commitments. With rival Michigan State climbing in the rankings (+1600), it will be interesting to see how the rest of the Big Ten reacts.

Futures market overview

The section below will go over some different conference championship favorites and who some of the most notable contenders across the country are, from the ACC to the Big Ten and beyond. Many of these schools are blue-blooded contenders and familiar names at the top of the college basketball leaderboards. For July, conference championship markets have remained relatively stable.

• This latest OSB starts in the ACC where Duke is still the strong favorite. While their odds have stayed around -300 at some outlets to win the ACC, the Blue Devils are clearly the team to beat. This is mainly due to having another elite roster under head coach Jon Scheyer. Louisville, though, could be a dark horse contender with their +2000 odds to win the national title. UNC is also not super far off at +4000.
• Meanwhile, the gap in the Big Ten continues to condense. Illinois is now tied with Michigan in some odds markets as the top contender in the conference due to the uncertainty at the top coaching spot with the Wolverines. However, even after May’s departure, Michigan is still projected near the top of the conference, with both schools drawing odds of +1300 to win the national championship. Michigan State, though, continues to climb and is not far off from the leaders.
• Arizona is still the consensus favorite to win the Big 12, but again the gap has closed with the Wildcats sitting somewhat idle at +2000, falling from +1700 in the last update. Kansas and Houston, both at +2500, have also not risen as much in this new report as well. This could also mean, though, that the top of the conference will be a logjam, with each of these teams certainly capable of taking home the crown.
• In a new wrinkle to the update, Gonzaga (+4000 national title odds) is the projected top dog in the new PAC-12. Meanwhile, San Diego State (+30000) and Utah State (+50000) are two other teams to watch here after dominating the Mountain West in years past. Both have dark horse long-shot odds to win the national championship next year, but the new look PAC-12 could certainly offer some dynamic matchups this winter.
• As always, pay close attention to roster additions and omissions as the summer months roll on. There could still be some additional dominoes to fall, which is covered below.

Market trend to watch this month

The Momcilovic transfer situation was the market trend spotlight in the last report and certainly the market is now reacting somewhat to this news. For July though, the market for college basketball futures is still in a relatively quiet spot. So, the story is more around how sportsbooks are adjusting to futures based on finalized rosters. For instance, teams that “won” the NBA Draft withdrawal deadline affects future movement. Once players where they are returning to schools, sportsbooks had much more certainty. So, teams like Florida, Duke, Michigan State, and Illinois all benefitted from key returnees and either shortened or held in the future market.

Additionally, now that rosters are largely set, bettors are evaluating whether coaching changes will help or hurt title chances. Of course, Michigan is the most high-profile example, but several other programs are being judged on how quickly new staffs can integrate their rosters. Moreover, with national title odds stabilizing, bettors are increasingly looking at conference championship markets, especially the ones that have clear preseason favorites like the ACC.

Upcoming factors that could shift odds

For early July and through this next month, there are a couple of other factors that could have some impact on preseason futures. For example, although most transfer portal activity is complete, teams can still add international prospects or receive final eligibility rulings for incoming players. While most of the offseason movement has concluded (one would think), a single impact player from overseas could still influence conference and national championship odds as summer workouts start.

Additionally, with summer workouts starting for many teams, preseason injuries to projected starters could also move odds around even though they are very unpredictable. Another element that has not been touched on in prior updates is how a team fares on an exhibition or a foreign tour where the collegiate squad looks strong — or worse — against an international team in Europe or perhaps the Caribbean. Finally, and this might be a little further off, teams that garner buzz in preseason rankings or national projections tend to gain momentum from the betting markets.

Previous market updates

• [June 2026]: Duke and Florida have both formed the clear top two in the futures rankings. Big man Milan Momcilovic is established as the most coveted late game transfer in the market.
• [Mid May 2026]: Duke is still considered the top dog, but Florida and Michigan have all clustered at the top of the rankings, forming the highest tier.
• [Early May 2026]: Duke continues to be touted by some outlets as the overall favorite to win it all next year, with odds lowering to +650. Florida emerges as the third contender in the race with odds around +800.
• [April 2026]: Duke Blue Devils opened as (+800) favorites to win the 2027 NCAA Tournament after sportsbooks posted early futures following the title game.
• [Early April 2026]: Michigan Wolverines moved to (+1200) after winning the 2026 national championship, becoming the clear No. 2 choice on several books.
• [March 2026]: Arizona Wildcats are shortened to (+245) entering the Elite Eight as one of the strongest remaining title contenders.