NHL Playoff Picks: May 11, 2022

Paolo Go
By , Updated on: May 6, 2024 08:00 PM
NHL Playoff Picks: May 11, 2022

Three Game 5s are on deck this Wednesday, March 11. One series could end as two other teams will break a 2-2 tie and come within one win of moving on to the next round. We make our NHL Playoff Picks and we like the odds on at least two of the underdogs.

Nine days into the NHL's 2022 Stanley Cup Playoffs and only one team has moved on to the next round: the Colorado Avalanche. The other seven series are still a toss-up even with the Pittsburgh Penguins up 3-1 over the New York Rangers. We went 3-1 with our NHL playoff picks from last week and will look to sweep the board this Wednesday: which features two juicy underdogs worth betting.

NHL 2022 Playoff Picks: Underdogs Bark

We've seen plenty of upsets in this season's NHL playoffs. That's just how it goes with hockey and if you've bet on these underdogs from 2022's best NHL betting sites you'd have made a bit of profit. Don't expect the rest of the playoffs to be as clear-cut as this Wednesday's matchups could feature more upsets.

Away TeamBovadaBovadaHome Team
Pittsburgh Penguins+115-135New York Rangers
Washington Capitals+180-220Florida Panthers
Dallas Stars+180-220Calgary Flames

Pittsburgh Penguins vs. New York Rangers (Game 5)

When it comes to the Stanley Cup Playoffs, it's the team that wants it more than usually prevails. The New York Rangers will want this game as they return to the Madison Square Garden facing elimination. Igor Shesterkin has been pulled in both games in Pittsburgh and the Rangers' once-indomitable netminder looks vulnerable.

The onus will be on the Rangers, who have allowed the most shots and scoring chances among playoff teams. The defense will still be bad though Shesterkin will have a bounce-back game. But the Rangers' offense should click for Game 5 as it will be them chasing Penguins' goaltender Louis Domingue from the net.

We like for New York to play with more desperation and to edge the Penguins. But it won't come easily as the Penguins are the better team in most categories. What we're confident in is the scoring: there will be lots of it. The total has gone over for all games this series. This trend should hold.

Washington Capitals vs. Florida Panthers (Game 5)

Few folks picked the Washington Capitals against the Presidents' Trophy-winning Florida Panthers. But after the Panthers' struggles, it's become apparent that these teams are more even than their regular standings indicate. The Capitals are just a few seasons removed from winning the Stanley Cup, while the Panthers have not won a playoff round since 1996, when most of the current roster was in diapers.

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The Panthers' vaunted offense has been hit-and-miss in these playoffs, and even more alarming is their goaltending. Sergei Bobrovsky has allowed a goal every 10 shots he's faced. Even with Florida gaining more possession time and scoring chances than Washington, the Panthers find themselves outscored 13-11.

We expect Florida to once again outshoot and out chance the Capitals for Game 5. But we cannot trust our money on Bobrovsky or the Panthers' "defense". We'd rather take the dog shot on the experienced Capitals at nearly 2-1. This is a franchise that has more playoff savvy and leads Florida in high-danger shooting percent and saves percentage. Translation: they are more clutch.

Washington Capitals To Win

Dallas Stars vs. Calgary Flames (Game 5)

And speaking of another shaky favorite, the Calgary Flames could find themselves one step closer to another disappointing playoff performance. This is supposed to be one of the best teams per the NHL's Stanley Cup betting odds, but all but the defense has been funky against the Dallas Stars.

Jakob Markstrom is posting a whopping .952 save percentage but often finds himself outplayed by Jake Oettinger. And on the offensive side, Calgary is struggling to turn scoring chances into goals. The Flames are ranked second-worst in the playoffs in scoring chance shooting percent, and they have one of the biggest discrepancies in expected goals (8.5) and actual goals (3) on 5v5.

But the defense remains elite and the Stars are producing even less. This series has been a grind to watch as three of the four games have gone below the totals of 5.5. There is still some value in betting the under here. But given how close this game will be, there is more value in betting Dallas' puck line at -140 or take a shot on them straight-up at +180.

Dallas Stars To Win

Meet the author

Paolo Go

Paolo brings a wealth of basketball and hockey knowledge to his expert analysis of the NBA and NHL. With over 7 years experience as a sports writer, he provides seasoned advice and decisive picks. Paolo got his start locally in Toronto before joining prominent outlets...

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