Want to make money this weekend betting on UFC? Of course, you do that’s why you’re reading this. we’ll keep on reading because we have three expert picks on UFC Fight Night this weekend. We have high conviction on these wagers so don’t miss out!
- What: UFC Fight Night
- When: Saturday, April 6
- Where: UFC Apex in Las Vegas, Nevada
Brendan Allen vs. Chris Curtis Betting Pick
This fight was thrown together last minute. Originally, Allen was slated to fight Marvin Vettori in the main event but Vettori was forced out. This why it’s no surprise that Allen is a commanding betting favorite over Curtis, who wasn’t in a proper fight camp. Here are the current odds available at the best UFC betting sites:
| Fighter |  |  |  |
|---|---|---|---|
| Brendan Allen | -220 | -220 | -220 |
| Chris Curtis | +180 | +180 | +180 |
This is an interesting fight, not because of the last-minute change, but because these two fighters have fought once before. Back in December 2021, Curtis actually chinned Allen in the second round. So tell me again, how Curtis is +180 to win?
Since that fight, Allen, to his credit, has gone on a run. The middleweight has won six in a row, and five of those ended early via a submission. Allen is indeed dangerous and he’s probably in-line with a title shot here with a win. The issue is, Allen’s superb grappling ability is negated in this matchup. Curtis isn’t a grappler at all, but boy, can he defend the takedown with 92 percent defense.
Therefore, we expect this fight to be contested mostly standing up. If so, that strongly favors Curtis, who is a better striker. Curtis averages almost six significant strikes per minute to Allen’s 3.87. But more than that, we’ve seen him knock out Allen before. Who’s to say he can’t do it again?
As you can guess, Curtis is our pick. Yes, he’s older (36). Yes, he’s a late replacement. But getting him at near +200 odds against a fighter he’s already beaten is worth taking a bet on. The value on Curtis is too damn good to pass up!
Alex Hernandez vs. Damon Jackson
The betting odds in the co-main event are strikingly similar to the main event. Hernandez is a -205 favorite over Jackson in this featherweight clash. Personally, we see more value in betting the Hernandez-Jackson over/under. Here’s where the odds sit:
| Outcome | | | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 Rounds | +130 | +130 | +130 |
| Under 2.5 Rounds | -165 | -165 | -165 |
The reason we’re skipping the moneyline bet is because, honestly, we’re not too sure who wins. Hernandez is too hot and cold for our liking. On one hand, he’s beaten top fighters like Beneil Dariush. On the other hand, he’s lost three of the last four. Jackson is also 35 years old so this is the age where many fighters start slipping.
Of the two, Jackson is far more dangerous. He’s a pretty damn good grappler and submitted 15 opponents over his career (another four wins came by knockout). The problem Jackson has is he’s not good at actually getting the takedown with a lackluster 36 percent accuracy. If he struggles to take the fight to the ground, then the advantage swings to Hernandez, who strikers better (but isn’t a KO threat by any means).
Either way, we see this fight going the distance. Both fighters are trending in the wrong direction and this fight could be an ugly one the judges have to decide. We’re certainly betting on that outcome.
Morgan Charriere vs. Chepe Mariscal Betting Pick
Here’s another featherweight fight, and this one is expected to be razor close. As it stands, the moneyline odds between Charriere and Mariscal are at near pick ‘em:
| Fighter | | | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Morgan Charriere | -125 | -125 | -125 |
| Chepe Mariscal | +105 | +105 | +105 |
Charriere is the slight favorite and he comes into this fight with some buzz. He made his UFC debut in September and won with a first-round KO. We haven’t seen him fight anyone of note, but Charriere’s whole reputation is based on him being able to stand up and strike like a dog.
The thing is Mariscal is also an unknown. He only has two UFC fights, both wins. Mariscal has shown a balanced fight style in both UFC wins. He’s a wrestler at heart, but his striking is nothing to scoff at either.
To us, we’ve just seen Mariscal prove it more than Charriere. Not even just in the UFC, but beforehand, his resume includes fights with other UFC fighters while in different promotions. His experience (and plus money odds) swing this bet in favor of Mariscal.
How To Bet On UFC Fight Night?
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