UFC took the rare weekend off last time, but things pick right back up this weekend with a brand-new Fight Night card. We’ve analyzed the card's top fights and are confident our UFC betting predictions will hit. Read on for three freebie picks!
- What: UFC Fight Night
- Where: UFC Apex in Las Vegas, Nevada
- When: Saturday, October 7
Grant Dawson vs. Bobby Green Betting Pick
The best UFC betting sites don’t believe this lightweight match will be very competitive. That’s because Dawson is a staggering -425 favorite to win on the moneyline. There’s not much money to make off that so we’re taking a shot at the Dawson-Green over/under instead. Here’s the odds both ways:
| Outcome |  |  |  |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 4.5 rounds | +170 | +170 | +170 |
| Under 4.5 rounds | -210 | -210 | -210 |
Let’s just be blunt and say Dawson is winning this fight. He is nine years younger than Green and has a legit shot at one day contending for the lightweight belt. You can’t say the same for Green, who is 37 years old. Green is in the classic spot of an aging veteran who’s well-liked and is being used to feed up-and-comers as his career winds down. We’d be shocked if Green is even competitive, little less wins.
More than anything else, this is just a mismatch. Dawson is one of the better grapplers you’ll see in the UFC. He’s averaging 3.7 takedowns per fight. Dawson also hasn’t lost since 2016. Since then, he’s put on a wrestling clinic against his opponents — 10 of which have come in the UFC so you can’t say he’s beating up tomato cans.
Green used to actually have some wrestling ability. But as he’s aged, he’s gone away from it in favor of a pressure-heavy strike style. That’s made him a crowd favorite which explains this matchmaking. Green is coming off a submission victory over Tony Ferguson. Yes, Ferguson is washed up but he’s still not an easy person to put away early so you can’t completely discredit Green either.
We predict this fight will go like most Dawson bouts: a snoozefest with Dawson dominating on the ground. Since joining the UFC, half of his 10 fights have ended early with a submission. We'd bank on that to happen once more. If so, the under makes all the sense in the world.
Joe Pyfer vs. Abdul Razak Alhassan Betting Pick
Here again, the moneyline odds aren’t worth putting money on. Pyfer is a big-time -450 betting favorite which means we’ll have to fish for betting value elsewhere. In this case, it’s the Pyfer-Alhassan over/under which is head center at 1.5 rounds:
| Outcome | | | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 rounds | +150 | +150 | +150 |
| Under 1.5 rounds | -180 | -180 | -180 |
As you can see, the under is the runaway favorite on this one. That’s because both these middleweights like to stand up and swing. Pyfer is nicknamed “bodybagz” for Christ’s sake. In the UFC, he’s won four in a row and three of them by early KO. Pyfer seems like a guy who believes his own hype — which he should — and wants to get people out early.
Then there’s Alhassan. A quick look at the tale of the tape and you can’t help but notice the age difference. Alhassan is 38 years old, 11 more than Pyfer. That explains why he’s lost four of his past six. Alhassan is a head-hunter fighter, but at this age, his power is starting to fade. Still, we expect him to bring the pressure in this co-main event.
Our money is on the under here. Someone’s getting knocked out early — and we’re pretty sure that’ll be Alhassan. He’s only been KO’d once before so he is durable. But Pyfer can really club with his hands and we can’t imagine Alhassan’s chin is as good as it once was. Pyfer wins it early in the second is our prediction.
Alex Morono vs. Joaquin Buckley
Finally, we have ourselves a fight expected to be competitive. The Buckley vs. Morono moneyline is one of the closest of the night. Here’s how the odds are shaking out:
| Fighter | | | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Joaquin Buckley | -165 | -165 | -165 |
| Alex Morono | +135 | +135 | +135 |
Buckley is the betting favorite, and deservingly so. He debuted at welterweight last time and TKO’d Andre Fiahlo. And despite the new eight class, Buckley is the larger-looking fighter here. With that said, Morono is a big step-up in competition for Buckley. Now 33 years old, Morono has put together a respectable career with a 23-8 mark. Morono has also won five of the last six fights.
This fight should mostly be standing up. Morono has almost zero takedown ability. Buckley isn’t as bad, but definitely likes relying on his fists instead. To us, Buckley is the far more dangerous fighter. With his speed, there are KO possibilities moreso than Morono. Cause of that, we’re leaning toward betting on Buckley. It’ll be close, but Buckley will hurt Morono more and swing the win his way.
How To Bet On UFC?
October is a stacked month in the UFC. Besides this card, there are two others on the schedule, including UFC 294 featuring the anticipated rematch between Charles Oliveira and Islam Makhachev. If you want a one-stop shop for betting on UFC, then we recommend one of the sites below. Every single type of bet on the UFC you’re looking for will be carried at these sites.
There are even lucrative promotional bonuses available at these sites. By lucrative, we’re talking hundreds to thousands of dollars in free play. With that type of money, your UFC betting in October could effectively be free. See the table below for a list of the top deals available right now.
Online Sports Betting © 2024