UFC comes to Mexico City for an action-packed night of fighting. While there are several bets worth taking, we’ve settled on the three best UFC Fight Night Mexico bets. If you want them for free, then keep on reading!
- What: UFC Fight Night
- When: Saturday, February 24
- Where: Arena CDMX in Mexico City
Brandon Moreno vs. Brandon Royval Betting Pick
Moreno will receive his hero’s welcome in the main event. He’s the most famous fighter with Mexican blood since Cain Velasquez and we expect a rancorous crowd behind him in this one. At the moment, he’s a -260 favorite to win on the moneyline. That line is ok, but we see more value betting the Moreno-Royval over/under. Here’s how the best betting sites for UFC have set it:
| Outcome |  |  |  |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 3.5 Rounds | -145 | -145 | -145 |
| Under 3.5 Rounds | +115 | +115 | +115 |
Royval and Moreno have squared off before, a little over three years ago at UFC 255. Technically, it ended with a first-round TKO win for Moreno, but the result was contested. See, Royval had his shoulder pop out of his socket late in the round. Due to the injury, he stopped defending himself when Moreno began ground-and-pounding. The ref called it right before the round ended, and that was that.
In the rematch, we expect more action. Both fighters are ultra-aggressive. Royval is a finisher through and through. Thirteen of 15 wins have been by either KO or submission. Striking is his forte, but Royval can fall back on sneaky good grappling too. The man is dangerous any way you look at it. The issue is, Moreno can fight those styles, and probably do it better. Striking, grappling, takedown — we all favor the Mexican in those areas.
Both are coming off losses to the flyweight champion Alexandre Pantoja, but Moreno was the way more competitive fight of the two. That’s a reflection of his skill set compared to Royval.
Question is, can Moreno finish him under 3.5 rounds? Eh, we’re not so sure. Royval is extremely durable and has only been stopped twice in 22 career fights. At the very least, we think Royval hangs for three rounds despite the comfy environment for Moreno. We’re taking the over — either Moreno wins on a decision or a very late stoppage.
Yair Rodriguez vs. Brian Ortega Betting Pick
So both of these fighters are Mexican, however, Rodriguez was actually born in the country (Ortega was born and raised in the United States). Therefore, we expect a more partisan crowd for Rodriguez. Either way, this is going to be a fun featherweight clash. Here’s how oddsmakers have set the Rodríguez-Ortega moneyline odds at:
| Figher | | | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Yair Rodriguez | -170 | -170 | -170 |
| Brian Ortega | +140 | +140 | +140 |
Here again, we have a rematch, a more recent one, however. These featherweights got down in the summer of 2022. Ironically, this one also ended because of a popped-out shoulder in the first. The opening round was a slugfest with both fighters getting in their licks until Ortega dislocated his shoulder. The first fight was stopped at 4:11 and Rodriguez declared the winner.
Unfortunately for Ortega, he hasn’t fought since then. It’s been a 19-month layoff, one that he admitted was difficult due to injury rehab setbacks. Rodriguez, the last time we saw him, he got crushed by Alexander Volkanovski for the division title. So neither is coming in hot into this one.
The way we see this fight going is mostly on the feet. Ortega is a great grappler, but he’s not good at actually getting his opponents to the ground. On the feet, Rodriguez is lightyears ahead at striking. Not only that, but Ortega is very hit-able (he takes 6.66 significant strikes per minute). That leads us to pick Yair in this one. Add in his home-crowd advantage and Rodriguez as the pick makes a whole lot of sense.
Daniel Zellhuber vs. Francisco Prado Betting Pick
Mexican fighter Zellhuber is a comfortable betting favorite against Prado, who is Argentine. Odds are -275 for Zellhuber. Again, we’re not in love with that, which is why our money is going on the Zellhuber/Prado over/under instead:
| Outcome | | | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 Rounds | +110 | +110 | +110 |
| Under 2.5 Rounds | -140 | -140 | -140 |
This is a lightweight clash between two rising prospects under 25 years old. Prado literally only knows how to win by finish. Over his 12-1 record, he’s split victories by KO and submission. We fully expect him to come out aggressive early, which could work or be detrimental.
Zellhuber isn’t nearly as aggressive, but that’s because he’s a very balanced fighter. In four UFC fights, we’ve seen him do it a little bit of everything — striking (thanks to super long limbs), grappling, and good takedown defense. He has more oaths to victory in this fight. We think Zellhuber wins and does so before that 2.5 rounds. Our prediction is Prado’s aggression will get him caught in a vulnerable position and he taps out. That’s why we’re taking the under!
How To Bet On UFC Fight Night?
We love the three fights above, but there’s plenty more worth putting money on (including Raul Rosas vs. Ricky Turcios). If you want every type of bet available for UFC Fight Night, hit one of the below bookmakers. Moneylines, props, over/unders — it’s all there for the taking. You’ll also find sportsbook promotional bonuses. With these bonuses, you could bet on UFC Fight Night for free! Yes, free! See the underneath table for details on our favorite promos.
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