The undercard of UFC events can go overlooked — especially when the main fights are so juicy, as is the case with UFC 295. However, we’ve hand-picked three undercard bets worth taking at this next UFC show. Keep reading if you want some under-the-radar plays that we’re confident will pay out this weekend!
- What: UFC 295
- When: Saturday, November 11
- Where: Madison Square Garden in New York City, New York
UFC 295 Undercard Betting Picks
One word of advice with UFC undercard betting: keep bets within reason. You see, a lot of these fighters are unproven with only a few UFC bouts under their belt. So naturally, there’s a sense of unknown with them. Try to keep bets to one unit — anything more and it starts getting too risky.
Steve Erceg vs. Alessandro Costa Betting Pick
These two flyweights will open the UFC 295 card. Like most of the fights on the card, the Erceg-Costa odds are pretty competitive. Here’s how the best UFC betting sites have it pegged:
| Fighter |  |  |  |
|---|---|---|---|
| Steve Erceg | -190 | -190 | -190 |
| Alessandro Costa | +160 | +160 | +160 |
Look, we don’t expect you to know all of these fighters. That’s why we’ll explain their background before offering up our pick on who wins. Erceg is the favorite out of Australia. This is only his second UFC fight after beating David Dvorak. Erceg won by decision as he took down his opponent three times. Grappling is his forte so we’d expect him to go that route in this one.
Costa is a contrast in styles. The 13-2 fighter is a solid striker. Costa is 1-1 in the UFC but is coming off a second-round finishing win. What we’ll say about Costa is his takedown defense is competent. And honestly, that may be the difference-maker cause Erceg is pretty one-dimensional.
We’re picking Costa in an upset win. Erceg is hit-able and needs to work on his head movement more. We wouldn’t be shocked if Costa gets him out early thanks to his far superior striking ability.
John Castaneda vs. Kyung Ho Kang Betting Pick
This is going to be a fun fight. We know many fans and bettors skip watching the early prelim card that’s streamed online, but this bantamweight bout might be worth catching. We’re personally invested in betting the Castaneda-Kang over/under. Here’s how the best bookies have it set at:
| Outcome | | | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 Rounds | -205 | -205 | -205 |
| Under 2.5 Rounds | +170 | +170 | +170 |
Castaneda is the betting favorite, and he’s a ball of fun. Nicknamed “Sexi Mexi” cause he’s, wait for it, Mexican and sexy. The thing you’ll notice about his fight style is the volume. Castaneda isn’t afraid to bring the pressure, in fact, he prefers doing so. He’s 20-6 over his career with a mix of win types — eight knockouts, six submissions, and six decisions.
Then there’s Kang, who’s been in the UFC for a long time. He made his debut back in 2013 so you have to give him credit for hanging around this long. Kang has a respectable 8-3 mark in his UFC stint. He’s not a KO guy, but his grappling is quite good, which makes a submission win possible. Twelve of his 19 wins have been via tap-out.
We’re going against the grain here too and picking the under. Castaneda’s aggressiveness is the reason for this choice. If it works, he’ll be able to smother Kang like few of his opponents ever have. A finish wouldn’t be shocking. If Castaneda’s pressure backfires on him though, Kang could very well submit him. We’re not sure which of the two happens, but we’ll take the under regardless.
Pat Sabatini vs. Diego Lopes Betting Pick
All right, let’s go to the main card now. This isn’t a headliner bout by any means, but it’ll be on the pay-per-view before Alex Pereira and Sergei Pavlovich. This Sabatini-Lopes moneyline is almost at pick ‘em. Here’s the odds both ways:
| Fighter | | | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Pat Sabatini | -120 | -185 | -185 |
| Diego Lopes | -110 | +155 | +155 |
Both these fighters are excellent jiu-jitsu fighters. Sabatini is an 18-4 fighter that’s very good at getting the takedown. Lopes is 26-6 but we’ve only seen him twice in the UFC (1-1). From that small sample size, Lopes has almost zero takedown defense. Zero! However, it’s not that big of an issue because if on the ground already, his grappling is insanely good.
So we’d expect Sabatini to take Lopes down at ease, which will score points from the judges. For Lopes, who’s not much of a striker, he probably has to win by submission. That’s his only real path to victory in this one. Sabatini has good enough jui-jitsu to avoid the tap out so he’s our pick. We predict Sabatini will earn a decision win.
How To Bet On UFC 295?
There are dozens upon dozens of UFC 295 bets on the table. Props, moneylines, under/overs — every bet type is available on the 13 scheduled bouts. If you want a complete list of bets, hit one of the sportsbooks you see underneath. These will have them all under one roof, at killer betting prices too.
The best part? Your UFC betting could be free if you leverage a promotional bonus. Our favorite bonuses are listed below. As you can see, hundreds to thousands of dollars in free play are on the line — that’s enough money to bankroll your sports bets for weeks!
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