Undercard UFC betting can sometimes be overlooked because, well, bettors don’t know the fighters. If this is you, you’re missing out on some money-making opportunities. That changes here cause we’re giving you the three best undercard bets worth taking at the looming UFC Fight Card.
- What: UFC Fight Night
- When: Saturday, November 18
- Where: UFC Apex in Las Vegas, Nevada
Payton Talbott vs. Nick Aguirre Betting Pick
We start off with a bout that’s on the main card, but we’d be stunned if the average bettor even knew these two bantamweights. Talbott has never fought in the UFC, while Aguirre has one under his belt. Still, we see value in betting the Talbott-Aguirre over/under. At the best UFC betting sites, this is how it’s being pegged:
| Outcome |  |  |  |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 Rounds | -205 | -205 | -205 |
| Under 1.5 Rounds | +170 | +170 | +170 |
Get this, the debuting Talbott is a stunning -800 to win on the moneyline. As a bettor, you have to ask yourself — how? Not necessarily that he’s this big a favorite, but how does he shoot up to the main card in fight one? Well, it’s because UFC sees star potential in the 25-year-old Talbott.
Talbott stands 5-foot-10 and will be on the larger side in this weight division. He’s lethal at striking, averaging 9.67 strikes per minute — albeit in lesser competition against non-UFC fighters. He inked a contract with UFC after an out-of-this-world performance on Dana White's Contender Series. In a win versus Reyes Cortez Jr., Talbott broke a bantamweight record for the most significant strikes in the competition's history. Talbott needs to work on his wrestling and takedown defense, but that will come with time (he's still super green).
Aguirre is 7-1 but was defeated by decision in his first UCF fight, though, it was on short notice. It’s tough to judge him off one fight under the circumstances, but he didn’t show a whole lot. Striking, grappling, it was all pretty subpar.
To us, Talbott is running away with this fight. As the far more dangerous fighter, we predict Talbott gets the stoppage win before the 1.5-round mark. We’d confidently bet on the under in this one.
Jonathan Pearce vs. Joanderson Brito Betting Pick
This bout is scheduled to go last in the preliminary card, as it should because it has the potential to be a banger. We mean, just look at the Brito-Pearce moneyline odds. They are a complete toss-up across the best bookies:
| Fighter | | | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jonathan Pearce | -125 | -125 | -125 |
| Joanderson Brito | -105 | -105 | -105 |
Both fighters are quite adept at grappling. Pearce averages 5.74 takedowns per fight, while Brito is at 3.89. Pearce definitely has the upper hand here — because he’s also better at defending the takedown. Brito struggles in this area so there’s a chance that Pearce just manhandles him on the ground all fight long.
Pearce, though, is an underrated striker. Out of his 14 career wins, nine have been by knockout. Don’t sleep on his power. Brito can also club with his hands. We’d say it’s a wash between who’s the better striker.
For us, the moneyline odds are worth putting money on. It’s one of the closer betting lines of the card, and we’re confident Pearce will pull out the ‘W. Barring him getting chinned, we expect his superior wrestling to wear out Brito en route to victory.
Trey Ogden vs. Nikolas Motta Betting Pick
We’ve also found betting odds with value in this preliminary card matchup between a pair of lightweights. The value is in betting Ogden vs. Motta over/under, which is a toss-up. Here’s how the odds sit:
| Outcome | | | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 Rounds | -115 | -205 | -205 |
| Under 2.5 Rounds | -115 | +170 | +170 |
Motta is a slight moneyline favorite to win at -135. He’s the younger fighter, 30 years old to 32, but he’s also the smaller of the two. However, Motta definitely has the striking advantage. He averages 3.4 strikes a minute. The thing we’ll say about his striking is Motta is patient. He knows when to pick his spots and unleash when the time calls for it.
Ogden is a grappler first. He’ll have a good test against Motta, who has a takedown defense of 100 percent. Ogden, to his credit, has solid hands for a grappler. More than anything, he can be the aggressor when he wants to.
This should be a pretty even fight. We did favor Motta to win, but most likely by decision. Ogden is durable with only three early-finish defeats over his 22 career. The bet to make here is the under in our book.
How To Bet On UFC Fight Night?
We're enamored with the three UFC Fight Night bets we covered, however, there's plenty elsewhere. We're talking hundreds of different types of bets — from moneylines to over/unders to props. If you want the full list of betting options, we recommend visiting one of the sites underneath.
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