Latest UFC Betting Updates This Month | UFC 333 Futures, October Fight Nights & Market Moves | October 2026
UFC has not one, but two numbered cards this October. There’s UFC 332 on October 3rd with a women’s main event featuring Natalia Silva and Wang Cong. Is it the most sexy matchup? No, of course not! But… it does have sneaky interesting odds, as we’ll explain later on.
If you’re not sold on that show, then there’s UFC 333 on October 24. This one is star-studded with fan favorites like Alexander Volkanovski, Merab Dvalishvili, and Petr Yan in action over two title belts. Dare we say this show is a must-bet? We think so! Keep reading and we’ll get into the juicy matchups!
Biggest UFC betting storylines in October
UFC news moves fast, but these are the recent storylines that matter most to bettors and the potential impact each one could have on upcoming markets:
UFC 332 main event is closer than most expected:
UFC 333 main event is a toss-up:
Petr Yan is favored to win the trilogy with Merab Dvalishvili:
Largest UFC line movements this September
One of the biggest edges you can ever have as a bettor is to spot line movements. By that, we mean when odds swing big-time in one direction.
This could be due to news (an injury happened) or, and this is where the edge lies, betting activity. Say if sharp bettors (aka professionals) are piling on one side of the bet, they might know something. That’s not to say they’re never wrong, but they’re pros for a reason, and you should at least be aware of which side of a wager they’re leaning toward.
We want to share some of the biggest line shifts we’ve seen in the last few weeks. It’s on you to act or not act on this info, but you should know how odds are shifting in real time. Here are some examples:
- Bettors keep hammering Payton Talbott: Apparently being a former two-time UFC champion doesn’t buy Deiveson Figueiredo any sort of respect anymore. He’ll be facing Talbott at UFC 332, and this line is quickly getting out of hand. Talbott opened around -500, but that number has ballooned toward -700 almost everywhere. There’s a 10-year age gap, which explains things, but maybe, just maybe, bettors are a tad too pessimistic on Figueiredo, who’s fought the best of the best in multiple divisions.
- Ciryl Gane is getting hammered against Josh Hokit: This fight isn’t until November during UFC 334 at Madison Square Garden, but the line movement is worth noticing now. Heavyweight champ Gane opened at a modest -150 against the undefeated Hokit. Bettors have poured onto Gane, so much so that he’s hovering at -250 odds. The 10-0 Hokit can be had for +200. We’re personally not looking to wager just yet — a lot can still change from now until November, but it’s worth monitoring now.
UFC fight odds we’re fading
One of the clear signs of a successful bettor is evaluating fights not just in terms of style or who wins, but in terms of betting value for the given wager. Simply put, the best bettors stay away from fights if the risk-reward ratio isn’t there.
That is why we use this section to highlight markets where the moneyline may be priced too heavily toward one side. In those cases, skipping the bet or considering the underdog may offer better value.
Admittedly, these suggestions will be harder to come by. Most UFC bookies are pros and adjust lines quickly if one side of the betting market is getting too thick. But, a few things do slip by, and we’ll try to call them out here, including this one:
- Kayla Harrison’s UFC 334 moneyline feels too comfortable: Looking ahead to MSG again, Harrison is sitting at -200 against the returning GOAT Amanda Nunes. We get why — she’s younger, enormous for the division, and has looked every bit like a champion since arriving in the UFC. But... this is still Amanda freaking Nunes we’re talking about here! She hasn’t fought since 2023, but she also retired after basically clearing out two divisions and beating nearly every great women's fighter this sport has ever seen. Without truly knowing what kind of fighting condition Nunes is in these days, this fight feels like a fade.
UFC betting markets we’re watching right now
These upcoming UFC markets feature short favorites, dangerous underdogs, and prop bets that may offer more value than the straight moneyline.
Volkanovski-Evloev to go the distance: If you don’t want to pick a side in what is basically a dead-even UFC 333 main event (welcome to the club!), many bettors are putting money on this fight going the distance. Evloev is 20-0 and has made a career out of winning controlled, technical fights (13 career decisions), while Volkanovski has probably seen every possible five-round scenario at this point. So you can see why many are skipping who wins and just saying the judges will decide it one way or another.
Buckley-Malott not to go the distance: Bettors feel the complete opposite when Joaquin Buckley and Mike Malott headline a Fight Night card on October 17. Buckley has finished 15 of his 21 wins by knockout, while Malott has ended 12 of his 14 victories before the scorecards. So yeah, all signs point toward this bout ending early in what should be a rock ‘em, sock ’em type of fight.
Previous UFC betting news you might've missed
- [September 26]: Raul Rosas Jr. survives and finishes Raoni Barcelos: Rosas entered as roughly a -155 favorite and needed almost the entire five rounds to cash it, eventually stopping Barcelos in the fifth. The 21-year-old has now won six straight. Pair that with his big fanbase, and Rosas is looking like a legit bantamweight contender.
- [September 19]: Joshua Van beats Alexandre Pantoja again: The rematch lasted a whole lot longer than their 26-second first meeting, but the result was the same. Van defeated Pantoja by unanimous decision to retain the flyweight title, taking scores of 49-46, 48-47, and 50-45. We can stop criticizing Van for the “gifted” title now.
- [September 19]: Arman Tsarukyan destroys Mauricio Ruffy: Tsarukyan remains one of UFC’s most feared fighters. He took care of Ruffy with complete ease at UFC 331, finishing him with vicious elbows at 4:56 of the first round. Bettors are now asking when he finally gets his lightweight title shot against Justin Gaethje.
- [September 12]: Jean Silva gets pushed before finding the finish: Jose Miguel Delgado actually dropped Silva early in the Noche UFC main event, briefly making the -450 favorite look vulnerable. Silva settled in though, and submitted Delgado with a rear-naked choke in the third round, but it was hardly the easy night those odds suggested. Surely, bettors will remember that next time Silva fights.
- [September 5]: Salahdine Parnasse makes a statement in Paris: Parnasse’s UFC debut could hardly have gone better. The former KSW champion stopped Dan Hooker in the first round in front of the partisan Paris crowd. Hype continues to build for Parnasse, who hasn’t lost a fight in three years now.
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