It’s taken more than three years, but Jon "Bones" Jones is finally back in the octagon this Saturday, March 4 for UFC 285. Jones gets an immediate vacant title shot against heavyweight Ciryl Gane in the Las Vegas-hosted card. It’s a matchup you don’t want to miss betting on. In this article, we’ll give you the very best UFC 285 betting picks among the top fights. Keep on reading if you want to make some money this weekend.
Jones Vs. Gane Betting Picks
Up until Conor McGregor returns later this year (versus Michael Chandler), this is the biggest UFC fight of the year. So expect a lot of money to pour into UFC’s most-used betting sites. We’re eying two different Jones vs. Gane betting picks, which we’ll share for free below:
Let’s begin with the most obvious bet, who wins striahgt up? As it stands, the moneyline odds are pretty close, but “Bones” Jones is favored slightly. Here are the current odds days from fight night:
We’re going to be completely upfront and say we have serious questions regarding Jones. Look, we think bookmakers and bettors are assuming Jones is the same fighter we’ve been accustomed to seeing for a decade — virtually unbeatable (his only loss was a DQ), athletically gifted with a range of offensive weapons, and perhaps the UFC’s G.O.A.T. Were not sure Jones is each of those anymore, not after a long ring layoff.
Hell, we’d argue Jones was already in decline the last two times we saw him in the octagon in 2019 and 2020. Jones escaped with decision victories against Thiago Santos and Dominick Cruz, both somewhat disputed, in those bouts. Now throw on three years of inactivity and there’s reason to believe Jones is far beyond his prime.
Let’s shift our focus to Gane now, though. This fight is at heavyweight so the size advantages that Jones has typically had at light heavyweight are now gone. Gane still isn’t as lengthy as Jones, but he’s certainly thicker than opponents Jones has historically faced. Not only that, but Gane’s added size also doesn’t come with the drawback of less speed. Among heavyweights, Gane is just about as elusive as they come.
Gane will have the clear advantage when striking. The guy can flat-out bang with his fists. Gane, however, is prone to being taken down as Francis Ngannou proved. Gane has heavy hands himself, but his success against Gane came via wrestling. Jones can certainly excel there, but he’s also not as heavy as Ngannou, making his control on the ground likely less effective.
We’re going to do the unthinkable here and bet against Jones. MMA is typically not a sport that’s kind to 35 years old that haven’t fought competitively for multiple years. This is Gane’s fight to win and how he does that is the subject of our second pick below.
Over/Under 4.5 Rounds
|Over 4.5 rounds||-145||-145||-145|
|Under 4.5 rounds||+115||+115||+115|
You saw above, the oddsmakers have set the over/under at 4.5 rounds with the over favored. Not only do we think Jones is losing, but we think he’s losing before the judges' scorecards get to be counted. Our money is on a knockout happening before the 4.5 rounds.
Bettors have to remember: if Jones is on the decline, which we’re on record saying yes, which of his skills are most likely to be affected? Well, all of ‘em, but historically the chin is one of the most obvious things to go. So there’s that, plus Gane is also likely the heaviest hitter Jones has ever faced in the octagon. That combination makes a knockout imminent in our book.
Valentina Shevchenko vs. Alexa Grasso Betting Pick
On to the semi-main event now where flyweight title-holder Shevchenko goes against Grasso. As with most recent Shevchenko fights, her moneyline odds are way too staggered (she’s currently -700 to win). We don’t love the betting value in that, therefore, our money is going on the Shevchenko-Gasso over/under of 4.5 rounds. Here’s how the betting lines shake out:
|Over 4.5 rounds||+120||+120||+120|
|Under 4.5 rounds||-150||-150||-150|
We think Grasso has more of a chance to win than the oddsmakers are giving her credit for. Shevchenko is obviously lethal when standing up and striking. But there’s a chance that Grasso can bang with her. The Mexican fighter has a boxing background that could quickly turn this fight into a slugfest. If so, an early stoppage knockout is very plausible. We’re certainly betting on that outcome and letting the best hitter rise to the top.
How To Bet On UFC 285?
For a complete list of UFC 285 betting options, visit one of the underneath bookmakers. There are dozens upon dozens of UFC 285 bets to make at these sites — from props to moneylines, every type of UFC bet is available. Every bookmaker featured in the table also rated highly in our newest sportsbook reviews when it comes to fight betting so you’re money is in good hands no matter where you go.