Are you ready for UFC 268? Because we sure are. So much so, in fact, we already have UFC 268 betting picks featuring predictions for Colby Covington vs. Kamaru Usman, Part 2.
Our UFC 268 picks aren't stopping there, either. There is also a strawweight title matchup on the docket between Rose Namajunas and Zhang Weili, as well as a trio of other significant meetings on the schedule. Rest assured, we've got predictions for them all!
Let's check out the latest UFC 268 betting odds before we get started, courtesy of BetOnline:
| Favorite |  | | Underdog |
|---|---|---|---|
| Kamaru Usman | -250 | +200 | Colby Covington |
| Rose Namajunas | -125 | +100 | Zhang Weili |
| Justin Gaethje | -175 | +125 | Michael Chandler |
| Sean Strickland | -175 | +150 | Luke Rockhold |
| Marlon Vera | -150 | +125 | Frankie Edgar |
Make sure you confirm all UFC odds before settling on any UFC picks. These lines will move at Betonline and other top online sportsbooks before the opening bell. We also recommend perusing through the best UFC betting apps in order to capitalize on any deposit bonuses or specials that might apply.
UFC 268 Betting Breakdown
- When: Saturday, November 6
- Time: 8 p.m. EST
- Where: Madison Square Garden in New York City, New York
- Watch: Pay-Per-Per View
Kamaru Usman (-250) vs. Colby Covington (+200)
The UFC Welterweight Title is once again on the line in this fight between Kamaru Usman, the reigning champ, and Colby Covington. Last time these two met, back at UFC 245, they looked like they'd be going the distance to a decision. But then Usman delivered a knockout punch to Covington with just 50 seconds remaining in the final round. It was an epic moment for UFC and all but guaranteed these two would end up meeting again down the road.
It has taken nearly two years, but here we are. And yet, despite how the last matchup ended, oddsmakers are heavily favoring Usman and treating Covington like a semi-long shot. That feels bizarre on its face.
Then again, maybe not.
Covington has fought just once since that 2019 bout. Usman, by comparison, has rattled off another three victories during this span, two of which have come by knockout. What's more, he continues to land a much higher percentage of his significant strikes per minute than Covington while also remaining impossible to take down.
Far be it from us to entirely discount Covington. He went almost the full five rounds with Usman last time. But that was forever ago at this point, and Usman is an even better fight now. Not only do we expect him to retain his Welterweight title, but we'd guess this tilt is over fairly quickly.
OSB Prediction: Kamaru Usman (-250)
Rose Namajunas (-125) vs. Zhang Weili (+100)
The last time Rose Namajunas and Zhang Weili entered the Octagon in an official capacity, it was against each other. They met previously at UFC 261, in what was another Strawweight Championship event. What fans remember most is how quickly it came to a screeching halt. Namajunas landed a well-placed kick that knocked out Weili less than 80 seconds into the first round.
Since then, Namajunas has been on a trash-talking tour, criticizing everything from Weili's fighting style to her politics. In doing so, she has succeeded in painting Weili as a "communist villain" of sorts within certain UFC circles. But whether that's a harbinger of what's to come in the Octagon remains to be seen.
Our guess currently differs from consensus. We don't want to call Namajunas' first win a fluke, but it was not indicative of any real gap between her and Weili.
On the contrary, Weili remains the more accurate striker. Her strike defense can be shaky, but she's among the best takedown evaders in the sport. Oddsmakers would call this pick an upset, but we don't think it's that much of a stretch.
OSB Prediction: Zhang Weili (+100)
Justin Gaethje (-175) vs. Michael Chandler (+125)
Michael Chandler was on a three-fight winning streak until he got knocked out by Charles Oliveira at UFC 262. And if we're being honest, a matchup with Justin Gaethje isn't exactly the ideal return to action for him.
Sure, Gaethje is working off a loss of his own and hasn't fought since UFC 254. But no one's dinging him for losing to Khabib Nurmagomedov. His style will hold up much better against Chandler. After all, Gaethje's speed continues to be divine; he's landing nearly 7.5 significant strikes on opponents per minute.
OSB Prediction: Justin Gaethje (-175)
Sean Strickland (-175) vs. Luke Rockhold (+150)
Luke Rockhold is currently on a losing streak, and Sean Strickland is not the person against whom he figures to end it.
Strickland can be a little erratic, but he's also relentless. He is still landing roughly 5.5 significant strikes per minute despite connecting on them at a below-average clip, and opponents have routinely struggled to hit him on the move.
If that's not enough to sell you, the fact he's won his last five matchups should be.
OSB Prediction: Sean Strickland (-175)
Marlon Vera (-150) vs. Frankie Edgar (+125)
Underdog enthusiasts might be tantalized by the power Frankie Edgar generates behind his combinations. But then they'll see his odds. And a prospective 1.25-to-1 payout just isn't enough to roll with him.
For as lethal as Edgar can be, he lacks accuracy. He's converting fewer than 40 percent of his strike attempts. Marlon Vera is neither the fastest nor most explosive opponent, but he's a far more fundamentally sound vertical fighter. We'd recommend jumping on his odds before they shift even further away from even money.
OSB Prediction: Marlon Vera (-150)
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