Kentucky Derby 2025: Burnham Square can work the right trip

Rowan Ward
By , Updated on: Apr 29, 2025 12:00 AM
Kentucky Derby Burnham Square right trip

Whether you’ve been betting horses for years or you’re curious to do it for the first time, betting the Kentucky Derby is an opportunity you cannot miss! The race happens Saturday, May 3 at Churchill Downs, and it’s the best betting race of the year. 20 of the best three-year-olds line up to go a demanding 1 ¼ miles on the dirt…at stake are the lion’s share of a $5 million purse, the iconic rose blanket, and a spot in the history of horse racing.

Burnham Square To win the Kentucky Derby
BetOnline
+1400

The best way to be a part of the Kentucky Derby action is to bet online! The race has the biggest field of any race in the United States all year long, and that means it has some of the biggest betting payouts all year long. You’ve found the best place to get expert analysis of the race, and of the best places to bet the race online.

Betting the 2025 Kentucky Derby Online

Before you make your selection in the Kentucky Derby, make sure to maximize your profits by choosing the best online sportsbook for betting the Kentucky Derby. Betting horse races is a lot more fun when you’re betting on a trusted online sportsbook with the best odds, a great user interface, and benefits you’ll never find at the track.

Our expert online sportsbook reviews will show you the bonus offers from each site, and help you figure out which one is the best for your betting style. Then, you can choose the signup bonuses, deposit bonuses, and horse racing rebates that can boost your Kentucky Derby bankroll by hundreds or even thousands of dollars!

These are the best online sportsbooks for betting the Kentucky Derby online.

Kentucky Derby Field

This is the official field for the 2025 Kentucky Derby including post positions, trainers, jockeys, and morning-line odds:

  1. Citizen Bull (Bob Baffert / Martin Garcia) - 20/1
  2. Neoequos (Saffie Joseph, Jr. / Flavien Prat) - 30/1
  3. Final Gambit (Brad Cox / Luan Machado) - 30/1
  4. Rodriguez (Bob Baffert / Mike Smith) - 12/1
  5. American Promise (D. Wayne Lukas / Nic Juarez) - 30/1
  6. Admire Daytona (Yukihiro Kato / Christophe Lemaire) - 30/1
  7. Luxor Cafe (Noriyuki Hori / Joao Moreira) - 15/1
  8. Journalism (Michael McCarthy / Umberto Rispoli) - 3/1
  9. Burnham Square (Ian Wilkes / Brian Hernandez, Jr.) - 12/1
  10. Grande (Todd Pletcher / John Velazquez) - 20/1
  11. Flying Mohawk (Whit Beckman / Joseph Ramos) - 30/1
  12. East Avenue (Brendan Walsh / Manny Franco) - 20/1
  13. Publisher (Steve Asmussen / Irad Ortiz) - 20/1
  14. Tiztastic (Steve Asmussen / Joel Rosario) - 20/1
  15. Render Judgment (Kenny McPeek / Julien Leparoux) - 30/1
  16. Coal Battle (Lonnie Briley / Juan Vargas) - 30/1
  17. Sandman (Mark Casse / Jose Ortiz) - 6/1
  18. Sovereignty (Bill Mott / Junior Alvarado) - 5/1
  19. Chunk of Gold (Ethan West / Jareth Loveberry) - 30/1
  20. Owen Almighty (Brian Lynch / Javier Castellano) - 30/1
  21. Baeza (John Shirreffs / Flavien Prat) - ALSO ELIGIBLE - 12/1

Baeza will only draw in if at least one horse scratches from the main field before 9:00 a.m. Friday morning, when Kentucky Derby betting begins.

Keep in mind that the morning line isn’t a guarantee for on-track odds, but rather the track handicapper’s estimate of what the board will look like. Betting online is better because you can lock in the best price in major races like the Kentucky Derby just by placing a bet. Then, you can watch the race confident in what you’ll get if you win!

These are the odds at the top of the Kentucky Derby market at the best online sportsbooks:

BovadaBetOnlineBetUS
Journalism+300+285+280
Sovereignty+600+600+600
Sandman+800+1000+800
Luxor Cafe+1200+1100+1100
American Promise+1200+1800+1400
Burnham Square+1400+1400+1400
Rodriguez+1400+1400+1200

Kentucky Derby Handicapping Tips

When evaluating the horses in the Run for the Roses, one of the best Kentucky Derby handicapping tips to keep in mind is that the winner of the Kentucky Derby usually runs well in their last prep race. Even long shots like Rich Strike, Country House, and Mystik Dan ran in the top three of their final prep, so looking for those last-out money finishers is key.

Make sure to pick a horse who has good stamina in his pedigree. No horse in the Kentucky Derby has tried 1 1/4 miles, but that is longer than most American horse races. If their parents have produced horses with a lot of stamina, or showed Classic stamina themselves, it is more likely that their progeny will run well in the Kentucky Derby.

Be sure to pay attention to Churchill Downs form as well. If a horse has run well at Churchill Downs, they are likely to run well at Churchill Downs again. If they have run poorly at Churchill Downs, it often suggests they do not like the track and will run poorly in the Derby.

Since the points system began in 2013, the first six winners were favorites. However, the last six have been longer shots. Still, it can be smart to use the favorite in intra-race exotics: Fierceness in 2024 was the only Kentucky Derby favorite in the points era to miss the superfecta in the run for the roses.

Kentucky Derby Best Bet

Burnham Square is the best bet for the 2025 Kentucky Derby. He comes out of a victory in the Blue Grass, where he ran down a lone leader who was already a Grade 1 winner over the course. Yes, East Avenue went fast, but this time  he’ll have an even better pace behind a multi-way pace battle involving one-way speed like Citizen Bull, Rodriguez, Neoequos, and East Avenue.

Burnham Square To win the Kentucky Derby
Bovada
+1400

Though he needs one more step forward from a speed perspective, he is improving and it would be no surprise if he finds it. He has the tractability to work out a trip amid the chaos, and his jockey has been here before – he keeps the services of Brian Hernandez, Jr., who carved out a brilliant Kentucky Derby trip with winner Mystik Dan last year.

Kentucky Derby Market Leaders

Journalism is the Kentucky Derby favorite in all markets, and deservingly so. He is undefeated in two-turn races. Though he is a favorite, he isn’t one who needs it easy, since he overcame a messy trip in the Santa Anita Derby (G1) to win anyway. With good tactical speed and one of the best distance pedigrees in the field, it wouldn’t be a surprise if Journalism ran to the money.

Sovereignty is well regarded off of wins in both the Street Sense (G3) and Fountain of Youth (G2), and a credible second in the Florida Derby (G1). As a closer, he will get the right kind of trip in the Run for the Roses. His impressive score in the Street Sense shows he can handle the footing, and the wide post won’t be much of a problem for a horse who can settle back and close.

Sandman will also take betting interest and deserves a look, at least for underneath. He still has some mental growing up to do, as is pretty common for Tapit babies at this stage. But, he is a closer who reliably fires, he comes out of a good final prep effort, the pace is right, and he has a strong distance pedigree.

Kentucky Derby Bet-Againsts

The speed horses are going to burn each other out, making them smart to bet against since they haven’t proven they can switch up their running style against good horses. Rodriguez is likely the heaviest-bet of this group, though Citizen Bull may take some money since he was a top juvenile. East Avenue and Neoequos also fall into this category.

Owen Almighty has at least shown some grit. But, it’s never a good sign when connections say they’re not going to the Derby and then change their mind, and he does not likely have the stamina to stay 1 ¼ miles against a taxing pace.

Kentucky Derby Longshots

Chunk of Gold hasn’t been getting all the way there in stakes company, but he picked up second money in the last two preps at Fair Grounds. With a good pace setup likely, and under-the-radar connections likely to keep the price up (despite jockey Jareth Loveberry giving a great ride to Two Phil’s in the 2023 Derby), he appeals for exotics.

Grande is another who interests for exotics, especially if there’s a bit of friendliness to more forward horses. There’s so much speed that the frontrunners won’t likely stay, but Grande shouldn’t be too far off the pace, and should get the jump on closers. He cedes experience to his foes, but has an experienced rider, some distance pedigree, and tactical versatility.

Kentucky Derby Best Bets

You’ve made your account at the right online sportsbook, and you’ve gotten to know the Kentucky Derby field. Now all that’s left to do is place your bets on the Run for the Roses!

These are the expert bets for the 2025 Kentucky Derby:

  • $20 win/place/show: #9 Burnham Square
  • $1 Exacta Key: #9 Burnham Square with #8 Journalism, #18 Sovereignty, #19 Chunk of Gold
  • $1 Trifecta Key: #9 Burnham Square with #8 Journalism, #17 Sandman, #18 Sovereignty, #19 Chunk of Gold
  • $1 Superfecta Key: #9 Burnham Square with #8 Journalism, #10 Grande, #17 Sandman, #18 Sovereignty, #19 Chunk of Gold
Burnham Square To win the Kentucky Derby
BetOnline
+1400

Meet the author

Rowan Ward

Rowan has been a regular at the Chicago tracks for over a decade and has also been to some of the biggest racing events including the Breeders' Cup, Kentucky Derby, and Woodbine Mile. Since then their writing has appeared in their own blog and across the horse racing in...

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