The measuring stick for success in Hollywood is box-office numbers. Anyone that tells you otherwise — Rotten Tomatoes score or awards wins — is flat-out lying. Not surprisingly then, many top entertainment betting sites are offering special bets on which movies outperform one another at the box office. Keep reading to get free betting picks on these special wagers!
All bets being offered are head-to-head matchups. So bookies will select two movies opening in 2023 and peg which sells more tickets. All bets account for opening weekend only — not lifetime gross. Moreover, performance is restricted to the United States only, not overseas gross which is a big variable to account for. Let’s dive into our betting picks below:
Transformers vs. Indiana Jones Betting Pick
To absolutely no one’s surprise, the 2023 release calendar is filled with sequels and remakes. Two movies that fit that category are Transformers: Rise of the Beasts and Indiana Jones and the Dial of Destiny. Neither series has the diehard fanbase of, say, Marvel Universe, so this Transformers-Indiana Jones bet is closer to call, as seen in the near-even odds:
| Movie |  |  |
|---|---|---|
| Transformers: Rise of the Beasts | -140 | -140 |
| Indiana Jones and the Dial of Destiny | +100 | +100 |
We’ll be honest, we think the Transformers franchise is on a steep decline — not just critically, but more importantly for these purposes, commercially. The previous film in the series, The Last Knight, grossed $140 million its opening weekend in the US. That’s not bad on the surface, but when you consider its predecessor, Age of Distinction, did $245 million, things begin to look murky. That almost $100-million-less performance spells bad news for Rise of the Beasts. Arriving six years later, it lacks series momentum.
Indiana Jones, however, is a lot more uncertain. The fifth movie in the franchise is releasing 15 years after the last one. Not only that, it’ll be the first Indiana Jones without Steven Spielberg directing and George Lucas writing. Because of that, it’s harder to gauge the “pulse” of the series. Harrison Ford is back to play the titular character though in what’s being promoted as his last hoorah.
Dial of Destiny will be directed by James Mangold, who is familiar with the iconic character send-off movie, doing the same for Hugh Jackman’s Wolverine role in Logan. Ford is a legend, however, he is an aging legend. We can’t imagine the younger movie-going crowd being jazzed-up to see Indiana Jones — certainly less so than Transformers. That’s why we’re giving Rise of the Beasts the edge to win here.
Aquaman vs. Dune Betting Pick
| Movie | | |
|---|---|---|
| Aquaman and the Lost Kingdom | -130 | -130 |
| Dune: Part Two | -110 | -110 |
Both of these movies are the second installments of the franchise. Aquaman and the Lost Kingdom is a follow-up to the 2018 flick, which opened in the US to just under $68 million. The 2022 remake of Dune hit just over $40 million in opening weekend — however, this was also during pandemic times which skews things lower. So which sequel makes more money — Aquaman or Dune?
Welp, we talked about the younger crowd before, which is critical to modern-day box-office success. In that regard, Dune has a pair of heavy hitters to promote. Two of its stars — Timothée Chalamet and Zendaya — are Gen Z darlings, which could rally the TikTok-influenced crowd. Aquaman’s titular character, Jason Mamoa, lacks that appeal if we’re being honest. And ironically, Mamoa appeared in the first Dune but won’t be in the sequel.
But there is another factor that HAS to be accounted for: the release date. As it stands, Dune: Part Two is scheduled for a November 3 drop. Aquaman, meanwhile, has December 25 circled on the calendar. This is not a small difference. A Christmas Day release is massive as audiences are conditioned for high-profile movie releases around then. It’s for this reason that Aquaman is getting our money here.
Fast X vs. John Wick Betting Pick
| Movie | | |
|---|---|---|
| Fast X | -200 | -200 |
| John Wick: Chapter 4 | +150 | +150 |
Can you believe it? The Fast & The Furious franchise is about to hit the ten-movie mark. The small-time electronic thieves have become world-renown criminals over the course of the series, dominating at the box office during most of it. But dare we say fatigue is beginning to set in on the Fast franchise? We think so, which is why we’re betting John Wick can upset Fast at the box office.
Ultimately, we think Fast X will suffer because, well, it’s the tenth installment of the franchise. Naturally, audiences begin to get weary unless it’s the true series finale — which it is not since Fast & Furious 11 is being billed as that. That sort of makes Fast X a “lame duck” movie where audiences know another is on the way anyway.
On the flip side, John Wick has improved its opening weekend box office with each new installment. US grosses include $14.4 million then $30.4 million and most recently, $57 million. If this trend were to continue, Chapter 4 of John Wick could very well pull off the sneaky upset. We think the risk is worth taking here at plus-money odds.
How To Bet On 2023 Movie Releases?
Not all sportsbooks offer betting on movie releases. For the most part, these non-traditional types of bets are available at offshore betting sites only. If we were you, we’d start by checking the bookmakers listed underneath. As evident by our newest sportsbook reviews, these sites are industry leaders — and that goes for entertainment-based betting or regular sports.
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