- When: Thursday, April 6 at 7:20 PM ET
- Who: Padres at Braves
- Starting Pitchers: Blake Snell and Spencer Strider
- Where: Truist Park in Atlanta, Georgia
Spencer Strider leads the red-hot Atlanta Braves into this series against the San Diego Padres. Despite losing their Ace pitcher Max Fried on Opening Day, the Braves have started the season winning 5 of their first 6 games.
Braves manager Brian Snitker confirms Max Fried will spend time on the IL with a hamstring strain. pic.twitter.com/J5UFBq81Yf
— Bally Sports South (@BallySportsSO) April 1, 2023
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The Padres on the other hand are 3-3 and are looking for some indicators other than their payroll that they are a contender in the National League.
Regardless of starting the season slower than they expected, Padres fans are believing that this team could be different. Showing up to the ballpark in record numbers should only help this team win at home.
San Diego showed up and showed out for Opening Series! pic.twitter.com/L1WrOzTVpc
— Petco Park (@PetcoPark) April 3, 2023
Blake Snell will be looking for his first win of the season after falling to the Rockies 7-2 on Opening Day. Despite the loss, Snell did strike out 9 and had more whiffs (20) than any other pitcher on Opening Day.
Blake Snell should be at his best in this game as his ERA was nearly 2 runs better last season pitching night games (2.83) versus day games (4.79)!
Money Line
The Braves should win this game, however, it seems as if oddsmakers agree pricing this game at north of -160 odds.
Those don't seem like the best prices to back the Braves, but if you're interested in backing the underdog Padres at +145, it seems like a much more tempting bet.
I can't recommend betting on either one of these teams on the money line.
I don't like the odds for the Braves, even though I think they will win and I need to see more from the Padres before I back them on the road.
| Money Line |  |  |  |
|---|---|---|---|
| Padres | +139 | +148 | +145 |
| Braves | -165 | -161 | -165 |
Pitching Props
One of my favorite prop bets for baseball is pitcher strikeouts. There will be strikeouts in every game, the trick is trying to figure out how many.
For a flame-throwing pitcher like Spencer Strider, oddsmakers will most likely set his total at 7.5 strikeouts. This seems like a high total until you see Strider has averaged an insane 13.8 Ks/9 per start last season.
In addition to overpowering hitters, he's outsmarting them with off-speed stuff as you can see below.
Spencer Strider's Changeup whiffs from yesterday. pic.twitter.com/TUnTfXlfax
— Rob Friedman (@PitchingNinja) April 2, 2023
He started the season with 9 strikeouts against the Nationals. I would recommend betting over 7.5 strikeouts for Spencer Strider in this game.
| Strikeouts | | | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Strider O 7.5 | -115 | -115 | -115 |
| Strider U 7.5 | -105 | -105 | -105 |
Total Runs
This total is an interesting one because given the dominant pitching matchup of Strider and Snell one would lean towards an Under in this game.
The current total is 7.5 runs, which feels like a solid number. Both teams do hit well and have had no issues scoring runs.
| Total Runs | | | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 7.5 | -110 | -110 | -110 |
| Under 7.5 | -110 | -110 | -110 |
The Braves have the superior defense, but their offense is too good for me to believe they'll be held in check by Snell and the Padres.
The over is the play in this game.
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Best Bet
The Braves are operating like one of the best teams in baseball, I would advise taking the Braves on the money line, but the odds aren't too favorable for that.
The best bet for this game is the over on Spencer Strider's strikeouts.
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