MLB Betting News This Week | Surprise Teams World Series Odds, Market Watch & Betting Analysis | May 15, 2026

Would you believe us if we told you the 2026 MLB season is already past the quarter-pole mark? If you wouldn’t, you totally should. Because it’s there.

As they do every season around this time, Major League Baseball polled a bunch of front office executives on their biggest surprises, disappointments and other superlatives so far. Naturally, we consider it our life’s mission to parse the details and see whether the World Series betting markets have been impacted by these unforeseen developments.

Who knows, with the help of nearly two dozen MLB executives, we might just spot a bunch of advantages we can bring to the best baseball betting sites.

Who are MLB’s Biggest Surprises?

Registering as a surprise for the first 20 to 25 games of the season is one thing. Sustaining a torrid pace 40-plus tilts into the schedule is a different beast altogether. These five teams received the most votes for biggest surprise of the year. We have included their World Series odds as of May 15, 2026.

1. Pittsburgh Pirates (+5000): The Pirates have not won 80 games since 2018. Hopes were not high for them entering this season. They are considered to be a perpetual rebuilding squad. Or rather, that’s how they used to be seen. Pittsburgh is sitting above .500 and on pace to flirt with 90 victories. That would be its highest total since 2015. Sportsbooks don’t yet seem to be giving them as much love as the record implies. They are still +5000 to win it all at Bovada. Such is life in the NL Central, though. Despite all four of their infield position players—Brandon Lowe (2B), Konnor Griffin (SS), Spencer Horwitz (1B) and Nick Gonzales (3B)—posting absurd Wins Above Replacement (WAR) numbers, the Pirates are still fourth in the division.
2. Cincinnati Reds (+6000): Speaking of the NL Central, at least one other team was seemingly destined to join the Pirates near the bottom of the barrel. With Pittsburgh outperforming projections yet still in second-to-last place, you might think the last-place team would be awful. Instead, we have the Reds. They were projected to win around 75 games and are instead on pace to rattle off 84 to 85 Ws.
3. Atlanta Braves (+1000): Allow us to list off every single MLB team with a better run differential than the Braves. Okay, here it go—ah, crap, wait. We can’t build the list. It doesn’t exist. Atlanta has outscored opponents by 91 runs on the season. That isn’t just the best mark in baseball; it’s 25 more than the No. 2-ranked Los Angeles Dodgers. We know the Braves were supposed to be good, but them not finishing first on the list of surprises is, well, surprising. Oh, and as if this isn’t enough, Atlanta may or may not be favorites to land Rafael Devers from the San Francisco Giants before the trade deadline:

🚨 Bleacher Report lists the Atlanta #Braves as the No. 1 landing spot for Rafael Devers if he’s traded after a rough start with the San Francisco Giants 👀

Can you imagine this Braves lineup with Devers added to it? 😳🔥 pic.twitter.com/dBXYYPzaZK

— ATL Sports Zone (@ATLSportsZone) May 14, 2026

1. 1. Minnesota Twins (+10000): We have some questions here. Though the Twins were tearing it up to start the year, they have since crashed back down to solid ground, settling in four games under .500. That’s still better than they were expected to be, but we have officially entered “Will Byron Buxton waive his no-trade clause?” territory. Buyer beware at the sportsbooks.

• Athletics (+5500): Anyone else still not used to leaving off “Oakland” or writing any city name next to the Athletics? Bueller? Anyone? Just me? Sorry, we digress. Raise your hand if you had the Athletics leading the AL West division nearly 50 games into the season. Anyone with their hand up, congratulations on being a liar.

Who are MLB’s biggest disappointments?

Slow starts can give way to optimism. Time is on your side 20 to 25 games into the season. Now, though, MLB’s biggest floppers officially need to panic. Which squads ranked as the biggest disappointments on the league’s executive poll? Get a bottle of soap and be prepared to wash out your eyes before proceeding.

1. New York Mets (+3300): No surprises here. The real surprise is that the Mets only received 62.5 percent of available votes as the biggest disappointment. They might be on a three-game winning streak as you read this, but the team with the league’s highest payroll by over $35 million is currently last in the NL East. That Bovada has them with better world series odds than the pesky Pirates is frankly insulting…to the Pirates.
2. Boston Red Sox (+5000): If you needed a reminder on why you can’t ever trust the Red Sox, go ahead and look at their Fenway Park offensive splits. Boston has a team wRC+ under 70 when hitting at home this year. To answer your question, yes that is the absolute worst in the league.
3. Philadelphia Phillies (+2500): If you are looking for a silver lining in Philadelphia after they fired manager Rob Thomson, it’s that they are winning over 75 percent of their games under interim head honcho Don Mattingly. We don’t need to ask whether this is sustainable. It’s not. The Phillies have enjoyed a cupcake schedule over the past few weeks. Even so, it’s nice to see the offense have a pulse again.

The Red Sox just keep piling up series losses, and keep playing some of the worst most unwatchable garbage baseball you’ve ever seen pic.twitter.com/6MrIaHHOV4

— Hogdale (@Hogdale_) May 15, 2026

1. Toronto Blue Jays (+3000): At first glance, the Blue Jays finishing fourth feels a bit harsh. Then again, Vladimir Guerrero Jr. is hitting under .120 since the start of May and the team’s overall offense has been dog-you-know. So, maybe this is deserved.
2. Seattle Mariners (+1300): The Mariners came within one victory of a World Series appearance last year. This season, they are struggling to keep pace with the [checks notes] Athletics. For all the betting trends and statistics dorks out there (I say this with love; I am one, too), Seattle is also tied for the worst cover percentage in the league.

MLB MVP watch: Can anybody catch the GOATs?

Welcome to our regular check-in on the AL and NL MVP races. So far, this section has boiled down to a “Can anybody catch Aaron Judge of the New York Yankees (AL) and Shohei Ohtani of the Los Angeles Dodgers (NL)?” segment. Will that ever change?

Let’s have a looksy at the top-five candidates in each league, beginning with the AL:

Judge has seen his odds shorten a bit, going from +190 last time around to even money now. With that said, he does not feel untouchable. Yordan Alvarez has been surging, it’s nice to see Mike Trout enter the chat again, and Judge’s teammate, Ben Rice, has started to make waves, too.

Here are the top-five candidates for the NL MVP award:

Ohtani remains unbeatable if he remains healthy. Even so, we’d keep an eye on Matt Olson. Offering 9-to-1 odds is excellent betting value. The Braves are arguably the best team in baseball, and many voters default to the best player on the best team for their ballots.

The Seattle Mariners are…more popular?

Perhaps you were thinking the Mariners’ slow start for the first one-quarter of the season would have the action on them slowing down. Not so much.

On the contrary, their World Series odds are holding serve right around +1300. That shows there’s still plenty of interest in their futures.

That isn’t all, either. According to Sports Illustrated, the masses have rallied around Seattle’s odds for recent road games against the Chicago White Sox and Houston Astros.

This might say a great deal about the national sentiment surrounding the Mariners. But it also might speak to another trend MLB fans are picking up on…

MLB Betting Trend to Watch: Are Road Teams Providing Killer Value?

Some MLB bettors can’t help but fade road underdog teams. That strategy is…not paying off this season.

Sure, if you are betting the moneyline you are in good shape. Road underdogs win games only 39.5 percent of the time this season. 

However, run spread bets are more popular in this instance. They allow for more wiggle room in the outcome. Yet, people still gravitate toward betting MLB home favorites to cover the spread.

Well, this year, road underdogs are covering the spread a whopping 56.3 percent of the time. We aren’t yet deep enough into the season to declare this an unassailable pattern, but it’s food for thought as MLB inches closer toward the halfway point.

Previous MLB Betting News Updates

[April 15-22] The Minnesota Twins moved into the top 15 of World Series betting odds, but experts are skeptical of whether they can stay there.

[April 8-15] Oddsmakers are starting to show distrust in the Seattle Mariners. They have seen their World Series odds ever so slightly start to shift after a shaky start, dipping from +1000 to +1100 this past week.

[April 1-7:] Los Angeles Dodgers superstar Shohei Ohtani is officially paying out less than even money to win NL MVP. If he stays healthy, it seems the NL’s MVP race may already be a wrap.