- When: Tuesday, August 29 at 8:05 PM ET
- Who: Milwaukee Brewers at Chicago Cubs
- Starting Pitchers: Corbin Burnes and Justin Steele
- Where: Wrigley Field in Chicago, IL
Fellow sports fans, baseball lovers, and betting enthusiasts, the stage is set for a thrilling duel in the heart of the Windy City.
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The Milwaukee Brewers are rolling into town, riding a wave of a nine-game winning streak, ready to lock horns with the Chicago Cubs.
But let's not forget that the Cubs are also in stellar form, winning seven of their last nine games. Sounds like a toss-up. Not quite.
With a showdown at Wrigley Field on the horizon, my money's on the Chicago Cubs to claim the win over the Milwaukee Brewers in this critical NL Central race.
Taking a look at the moneyline odds in this matchup between the Brewers and Cubs, has the Brewers has underdogs. They are priced at +120 odds at BetUS to win this game, indicating an implied probability of 45%.
This is interesting to me because the Brewers are leading the Cubs by 5 games in the division. They've also won 9 games in a row. However, the Brewers are turning to their pitching ace Corbin Burnes.
Here's the deal: Corbin Burnes, the Brewers starting pitcher, has been turning heads this season with a solid 3.65 ERA and 1.08 WHIP, but don't let those numbers fool you.
9 straight W's for the Brew Crew! pic.twitter.com/ZcgTJjV9WS
— MLB (@MLB) August 29, 2023
Although a bit quiet in recent times, the Cubs' bats have shown glimpses of their former glory. Remember, this is the team that led the league with a WRC+ over 130 in the second half of the season.
Sure, they've hit a bit of a slump lately, with their WRC+ dropping to 84 in the past two weeks, but what's a season without a bit of drama?
Let's talk about the elephant in the room - the Brewers' offense. Despite looking solid on paper and passing the eye test, they've been below the league average in wRC+ (95) this month.
Who's on the mound for the Cubs tonight? You guessed it - Justin Steele, a lefty, who has been magnificent this season, recording 14 wins and 3 losses along with a 2.80 ERA.
Here's where things get interesting. Steele has won 5 of his last 7 starts and with the Brewers' lineup due for some regression of their own, this could be the perfect storm for a Cubs victory.
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Now, let's talk about that total of 7 runs, which might seem low at first glance, but it starts to make sense when you factor in the excellent pitching expected in this matchup. Both Burnes and Steele are the best pitchers on their teams.
|Over 7 Runs||-115||-115||-115|
|Under 7 Runs||-105||-105||-105|
Now, I'm not saying this game won't be a nail-biter. Both teams are playing some of their best baseball, and the Brewers certainly won't go down without a fight. But when you consider all the facts, the scales tip slightly in favor of the Cubs.
— Chicago Cubs (@Cubs) August 29, 2023
The total for the game is set at 7 runs. Both pitchers have been good this season, hence the low total. But I'm banking on this one to go over at -110 odds easily. Why? Simple.
With the Cubs' bats showing signs of life and the Brewers' offense due for a reality check, there's a good chance we'll see more runs than expected.
So, there you have it. Put your money on the Cubs, and thank me later. This is gonna be a game you want to attend.
I would recommend betting Over 7 runs in this game at -110 odds at BetUS.
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