2024 AL MVP Picks: Soto leads a crowded field

Reigning AL MVP Shohei Ohtani has made a significant move to the National League with the Los Angeles Dodgers. At the same time, Juan Soto, a perennial candidate, now finds himself with the New York Yankees after a notable trade.

2024 American League MVP Odds

Player
Aaron Judge	+550	+550	+550
Juan Soto	+600	+600	+600
Yordan Alvarez	+750	+700	+800
Julio Rodriguez	+800	+800	+850
Corey Seager	+1200	+900	+700
Bobby Witt Jr.	+1400	+1500	+1600
Adley Rutschman	+1600	+1200	+1200
Gunnar Henderson	+1800	+1600	+1500
Mike Trout	+2000	+2000	+1800
Kyle Tucker	+2000	+1600	+1400
Vladimir Guerrero Jr.	+2200	+2200	+2500

Juan Soto

Soto's move to the Yankees presents a favorable environment for his hitting abilities. Yankee Stadium is known for its friendliness to left-handed hitters, potentially boosting Soto's home run numbers.

This rules, and also puts in context how crazy it is that Juan Soto hit an extremely similar home run… oppo pic.twitter.com/G0tjK1UVJi

— Yankees Files (@YankeesFiles) March 16, 2024

With 23 road home runs in 2023, Soto could excel with the Yankees and potentially hit over 50 home runs in 2024.

Juan Soto To win AL MVP

+600

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Julio Rodriguez

Rodriguez is projected to achieve 30 home runs and 30 stolen bases, a rare feat.

The Mariners' projected success (86-76) could bolster Rodriguez's MVP case, as he may be seen as pivotal to their achievements.

Come for the Julio Rodríguez double, stay for J.P. flying around the bases pic.twitter.com/TMV588xu0V

— ROOT SPORTS™ | NW (@ROOTSPORTS_NW) March 16, 2024

With limited MVP competition on his team, Rodriguez stands out as a strong bet, especially if the Mariners perform as expected.

Julio Rodriguez To win AL MVP

+800

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Yordan Alvarez

Yordan Alvarez's offensive prowess is highlighted by an impressive eight fWAR season. He ranks second in xwOBA since 2022, just behind Aaron Judge.

Yordan's wRC+ score of 178 over the same period trails only Judge. His stats include a .295/.390/.588 slashline with 43 HR and 128 RBI in a 162-game average.

Yordan's numbers are on par with Juan Soto's. The Astros have a better shot at winning their division compared to the Yankees.

Yordan Alvarez is an attractive bet with good health entering the season and odds over +750.

Yordan Alvarez To win AL MVP

+750

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Adley Rutschman

The odds presented are quite off by a noticeable margin. Historically, it's challenging for a catcher to win the MVP award.

Out of the 18 MVP Awards earned by catchers, legends like Yogi Berra, Roy Campanella, Johnny Bench, and Mickey Cochrane claimed 10.

The most recent catcher to win an MVP was Buster Posey back in 2012.

Comparatively, in Adley Rutschman's rookie season, he achieved a 5.4 fWAR in 113 games.

During his "sophomore slump" year, Adley posted a 5.1 fWAR, showcasing slightly diminished offensive and defensive performance from his rookie year.

However, there's potential for improvement, particularly in his offensive game, suggesting room for growth.

Adley Rutschman's performance didn't quite align with the exceptional contact quality he displayed from both sides of the plate.

Metrics like xBA (expected batting average) and xSLG (expected slugging percentage) were notably higher, around 30 points, than his actual batting average and slugging percentage.

His xwOBA (expected weighted on-base average) stood at .373, surpassing notable players like Austin Riley, Pete Alonso, and Fernando Tatis Jr.

When it comes to MVP voting, fWAR (Wins Above Replacement) holds significant weight.

According to several Fangraphs projection systems, Adley is projected as high as the third spot in projected fWAR for the National League.

If he manages to deliver a seven-win season for a leading AL East Orioles team, he could very well be in contention for the MVP award.

Adley Rutschman To win AL MVP

+1600

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Mike Trout

Despite potential decline concerns, Trout's odds are intriguing due to no longer splitting votes with Ohtani.

With the Angels relying heavily on Trout and his ability to lead the team to around 80 wins, he could become a favorite if he returns to form.

Here's our Top 10 center fielders in the game right now 👀 @JoelReuterBR pic.twitter.com/aVu0IfoRo2

— B/R Walk-Off (@BRWalkoff) March 19, 2024

Some teams have multiple players in the top 10 for MVP odds, such as the Yankees, Astros, and Orioles.

It's a competitive field with standout players like Soto, Rodriguez, and Trout, making for an exciting MVP race in the upcoming 2024 MLB season.

Mike Trout To win AL MVP

+2000

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