Red Sox to upset Yankees in Game 1 of AL Wild Card Series

Baseball's most storied rivalry will resume on Tuesday as the Yankees welcome the Red Sox to the Bronx for Game 1. While New York finished five games ahead in the AL East standings, Boston won nine of 13 meetings between the clubs this season.

Let's look at the latest betting odds for Game 1. Odds are subject to change.

	Spread	Money Line	Total Runs
Boston Red Sox	+1.5 (-195)	+114	Ov 7.0 (-115)
New York Yankees	-1.5 (+165)	-136	Un 7.0 (-105)

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Yankees Favored in Game 1

New York is a -136 money line favorite to win the opening game of best-of-three Wild Card Series. Led by Aaron Judge and Giancarlo Stanton, the Yankees are currently riding an eight-game winning streak.

Boston is a +114 underdog in game 1 despite eliminating their rivals the last three times they’ve matched up in the playoffs (2021, 2018 and 2004).

Aaron Judge's final 2025 numbers jump off the page 😮 pic.twitter.com/mpPLO6eD5f

— MLB (@MLB) September 29, 2025

Starting Pitching Matchup

Garrett Crochet (18-5, 2.59 ERA) went 3-0 with a 3.29 ERA versus the Bronx Bombers this season, striking out 39 and walking four in 27 1/3 innings. The Red Sox lefty led the MLB with 255 strikeouts. Best of all, he dominated Aaron Judge, who was 2-for-13 with 10 strikeouts against Crochet in 2025.

Max Fried (19-5, 2.86 ERA) established new career highs in wins (19), starts (32), innings (195 1/3) and strikeouts (189) after signing an eight-year, $218 million contract with New York. The 31-year-old lefty has tons of postseason experience, suiting up for the Braves in seven consecutive Octobers and winning a World Series ring in 2021.

Power Surplus

Teams that out-homer their opponents in October are 95-20 over the past four years. That's good news for New York, who has the most home runs in baseball and lead the league in OPS.

However, no playoff team has a worse bullpen ERA than the Yankees. With set-up man Garrett Whitlock and closer Aroldis Chapman, the Red Sox will hold a big edge in the eighth and ninth innings. But after leading the league with 116 errors, Boston will have to play much better on defense to pull off the upset.

Garrett Crochet dominated in his first season in Boston!

He finishes 2025 with the most strikeouts in baseball 🐷 pic.twitter.com/N5URbc6PcR

— MLB (@MLB) September 29, 2025

Historic Rivalry

Boston has won their three straight postseason meetings with their rivals, starting with the historic comeback from 3-0 down in the 2004 ALCS. Their most recent matchup came in 2021 with the Red Sox winning a one-game Wild Card playoff 6-2 at Fenway Park.

The Red Sox went 9-4 against the Yankees this season, including 5-2 in the Bronx.

New York Yankees vs Boston Red Sox Game 1 Picks

Given Garrett Crochet's dominance against Aaron Judge and the Yankees this year, we love the Boston Red Sox to cover +1.5 (-195) and win Game 1 (+114) with the UNDER 7 (-105).

Boston Red Sox to win Game 1 vs Yankees

+114

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