Red-Hot Mets Go Into San Diego As Road Underdogs To Padres

What: New York Mets at San Diego Padres MLB betting
When: Monday, July 28th at 9:40 PM ET
TV/Streaming: MLB Network
Starting Pitchers: Frankie Montas vs Dylan Cease
Where: Petco Park in San Diego

The New York Mets may be baseball's hottest team, but according to the MLB betting picks, they will also be underdogs as they begin a three-game series at the San Diego Padres.

New York has won seven games in a row. The Padres have won two straight and are being set as -124 home favorites in Monday's series opener.

San Diego is an impressive 31-18 straight up at home this season. The Mets, meanwhile, are a disappointing 25-28 SU away from home in 2025.

Let's look at the latest betting lines on this game. Remember, odds are always subject to change.

	Spread	Moneyline	Total
New York Mets	+1.5 (-200)	+104	U 8 (-105)
San Diego Padres	-1.5 (+170)	-124	O 8 (-115)

The NL East-leading Mets (62-44) are 3.5 games ahead of the Philadelphia Phillies in the standings. San Diego (57-49) is currently clinging to the fourth and final NL Wild Card playoff spot, one game ahead of the surging Cincinnati Reds.

Things To Keep In Mind When MLB Betting

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Meta vs Padres MLB Betting Trends

The Mets are 8-5 SU in the past 13 meetings with the Padres. In San Diego, the Padres hold a 6-4 SU edge over the Mets in the past 10 games. New York is 11-4 SU in 15 games against California-based MLB clubs. That includes an active five-game win streak.

The Mets are 7-0 SU in their last seven games. On the road, they also seem to be finding their footing. New York is 3-0 SU in the last three away games, and 5-1 SU through their past six road contests.

The Padres are 2-4 SU in their past six games. San Diego is returning home from a 10-game road trip in which the club was 5-5 SU. They are 6-4 SU over their last 10 home games.

The over holds a 3-2 edge on the total in the last five Mets vs Padres games. In San Diego, the total is 3-4-1 in the past eight games.

The over is 2-1-1 in the past four Mets games. Five of New York's past nine road games went under.

The under is 5-2 in the last seven Padres games. Three of San Diego's last four home games also went under on the total.

The Padres are 29-23 SU as the betting favorite this season. San Diego is 21-29 against the spread as the home team. New York is 25-27 ATS as the away club. The Mets are 12-16 SU when listed as the underdog in the betting line.

Starting Pitching Matchup: Frankie Montas vs Dylan Cease

Mets starter Frankie Montas is unbeaten in his career at San Diego's Petco Park. His opposite number, Dylan Cease of the Padres, has never managed to beat the Mets.

Pitcher Spotlight: Frankie Montas

While Montas is 3-1 in five starts this season, the right-hander is showing a 4.62 ERA and 1.30 WHIP. He's 3-0 with a 3.86 ERA during July.

"Definitely feel better every time I step on the mound"

Frankie Montas talks about how he's feeling with five starts under his belt this season: pic.twitter.com/XcW9T9mLcw

— SNY (@SNYtv) July 23, 2025

In his last start against the Los Angeles Angels, Montas got the win, allowing a season-high eight hits while striking out a season-high six batters. Four of those eight hits went for extra bases. He's yet to complete six innings in any of his five starts.

In three career starts facing the Padres, Montas is 1-0 with a 3.86 ERA. He's 1-0 with a 1.35 ERA in his lone start at Petco Park.

Pitcher Spotlight: Dylan Cease

Veteran right-hander Cease (3-10, 4.59 ERA) is enduring a rough 2025 campaign. He's lost his last four decisions and taken the loss in four of his past five trips to the mound.

Dylan Cease has been the unluckiest pitcher in baseball this season ‼️

While he has a 4.59 ERA, he has some of the best peripherals of his career, owning a 3.48 xERA, 3.10 FIP, 3.44 xFIP, 3.41 SIERA, and 2.2 WAR

Matt Blake and Yankees co could do WONDERS with a talent like… pic.twitter.com/gbXfSd7kSN

— The Yankee Report (@YankeeReport_) July 27, 2025

Cease last tasted victory on June 21. He's served up eight home runs through his past 26.1 innings of work. However, he's been looking better in his past two starts, offering hope that he might finally be turning the corner toward respectability.

He's 2-1 in his past three decisions at Petco Park. Cease has never beaten the Mets, going 0-3 with a 6.88 ERA in three career starts.

MLB Betting Picks

Are the Mets finally solving their road woes? New York is 2-1, three games into this current trip. The Mets are 3-1 SU the last four times they've been the underdog in the betting line.

San Diego Padres To defeat New York Mets

-124

Bet Now!

As a betting favorite this season, San Diego has won 57.4% of the time (31 of 54 games). The Mets, meanwhile, are just 13-31 (41.9%) as a betting underdog. Go with the percentages and take the Padres over the Mets in the Monday MLB betting picks.