Australian Open Picks: Tiafoe has value vs. Khachanov

Karl Rasmussen
By , Updated on: Jan 19, 2023 07:00 PM
Australian Open Picks: Tiafoe has value vs. Khachanov
  • What: Australian Open Men's Singles Third Round - Karen Khachanov vs. Frances Tiafoe
  • When: Friday, Jan. 20, 2023, at 7:00 p.m. EST 
  • Where: Melbourne Park, Melbourne, Victoria, Australia
  • How to Watch: ESPN, ESPN+

The third round of the 2023 Australian Open is shaping up to be a good one, with the first two rounds of the men's singles tournament finishing up on Wednesday night. on Tuesday. The Jan. 20 slate is full of exciting matchups, including what figures to be a closely contested fixture between Frances Tiafoe and Karen Khachanov. We're going to dive into the matchup and make some Australian Open Men's Singles picks for the Tiafoe-Khachanov clash on Friday.

Before diving into the Australian Open Men's Singles picks, make sure to check out our tennis betting guide to get all the information you need, as well as our Australian Open betting guide, which is full of useful tips and tricks.

Australian Open Odds - Khachanov vs. Tiafoe

BovadaSpreadMoney LineTotal
Karen Khachanov0.0 (-120)-115O 41.0 (-115)
Frances Tiafoe0.0 (-110)-105U 41.0 (-115)

Heading into the matchup, there's not much separating these two in the third round of the Australian Open. Frances Tiafoe (-105) is a slight underdog against Khachanov (-115) in their men's singles clash. The spread is set at 0.0, indicating just how closely matched up these two are. This game also figures to be a long one, with the total games set for 41.

Karen Khachanov Best Bets

Karen Khachanov has cruised into the third round of the 2023 Australian Open, losing just one set across his first two matches. In his first game, the Russian disposed of Bernabe Zapata Miralles in straight sets, winning 12 of 14 games across the final two sets of the match. In his second-round showdown, Khachanov upended Australian native Jason Kubler in four sets. While Kubler proved more of a challenge for him, he ultimately advanced to the third round without much issue.

Looking solid in his first two appearances of the Men's Singles tournament, Khachanov faces his toughest test yet in the American Tiafoe. Khachanov entered play as the Australian Open's No. 18 seed, while Tiafoe is the No. 16 seed of the tournament. In terms of ATP World Rankings, Tiafoe is heralded as the world's No. 17, while Khachanov is shortly behind him at 20th.

It's been more than four years since Khachanov's last men's singles title. He won three times in 2018, but has failed to take home a trophy in men's singles play since. Advancing against Tiafoe could put him in a position to turn that poor form around in Australia. The 26-year-old has faced off against Tiafoe two times in his career in men's singles, winning both of their head-to-head showdowns.

Because of his strong history against Tiafoe, it wouldn't be a big surprise to see Khachanov pick up a win in the third round. Despite that, I actually believe Tiafoe will take home career win No. 1 against the Russian. Still, this figures to be a close matchup, so there are two bets I'm looking at for Khachanov.

The first bet I'm targeting is Karen Khachanov first set Money Line at (-120). I'm expecting the Russian to win the first leg of their matchup, something he's done in each of his first two appearances in Melbourne.

Karen Khachanov To win first set vs. Frances Tiafoe

The second bet I'm looking at for this matchup is Karen Khachanov OVER 20.5 total games. I'm expecting a long, tight matchup between these two top players, and it could result in a high-scoring matchup with both players picking up plenty of game wins. Khachanov over 20.5 gameswill require this match to run long, but with two evenly matched opponents, that's certainly possible.

Karen Khachanov Over 20.5 games vs. Frances Tiafoe

Frances Tiafoe Best Bets

We've already touched on Tiafoe's lack of success in the head-to-head matchup against Khachanov, but I believe that will only have him more determined to pick up a win and solidify his place ahead of the Russian in the world rankings.

Frances Tiafoe made quick work of his first two opponents. In the first round of the 2023 Australian Open, Tiafoe defeated Daniel Altmaier in four sets. It wasn't his cleanest win, as he let the German claw back into contention late into the match, but managed to pick up the victory nonetheless. His second-round matchup will have him feeling more confident. Tiafoe defeated Juncheng Sheng in straight sets, losing just nine games throughout the entire match.

Tiafoe has just one career title, but a deep run at the Australian Open would do wonders for his career. The 24-year-old has a difficult matchup against Khachanov, but he could secure his first win against the Russian if he plays at his best. There are two bets I'm targeting for Tiafoe in this one.

The first bet ties into the previous Khachanov wager. As previously mentioned, I'm anticipating a first-set victory for Khachanov, but Tiafoe to win the match. There is a prop for exactly that scenario at (+550 odds). The first bet is Frances Tiafoe to lose the first set but win the match (+550).

Frances Tiafoe To lose first set but win match vs. Karen Khachanov

The second bet I'm looking at is far simpler, a simple Frances Tiafoe Money Line wager. I'm expecting the American to win the showdown against Khachanov, and at the odds are favorable at (-105).

Frances Tiafoe To beat Karen Khachanov

Before diving in and making your Australian Open picks, make sure to check out our top sportsbook reviews in order to find the best fit for your betting needs.

Meet the author

Karl Rasmussen

Karl Rasmussen leverages his journalism degree and passion for sports in his expert coverage of Major League Soccer (MLS) and fantasy leagues. Hailing from Denmark but a longtime resident of the Pacific Northwest, Karl brings an international perspective to his analysis...

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