UFC 261 Betting Picks

Quinn Allen
By , Updated on: Sep 4, 2022 08:00 PM
UFC 261 Betting Picks

Every UFC fan wants to see whether Jorge Masvidal can put up a better fight against Kamaru Usman, and at UFC 261, they'll finally get their shot. Not only that, but MMA heads will also be treated to three other marquee matchups. And on top of all this great news, we've got UFC 261 betting picks fresh out of the oven and made just for you.

Let's take a look at the latest UFC 261 betting odds courtesy of Bovada:

Kamaru Usman-400+300Jorge Masvidal
Valentina Shevchenko-400+300Jessica Andrade
Weili Zhang-185+150Rose Namajunas
Uriah Hall-115-105Chris Weidman

With a few weeks to go until the opening bell, don't make any UFC 261 picks without confirming these odds first. They will move in the interim and could differ from UFC 261 betting lines you'll see at other trusted UFC betting apps.

Using the most current odds, though, here's who we believe will win the top four bouts.

UFC 261 Betting Picks

  • When: Saturday, April 24
  • Time: 8 p.m. EST
  • Where: VyStar Veterans Memorial Arena in Jacksonville, Florida
  • Watch: Pay-Per-View

Kamaru Usman (-400) vs. Jorge Masvidal (+300)

If you base your decision on this Usman-Masvidal rematch solely on their first meeting, you actually don’t have much of a choice to make.

Usman, who is making his fourth title defense of the Welterweight belt, made quick work of Masvidal, winning in a unanimous decision. He was, at that moment, much too quick for the 36-year-old challenger.

But Masvidal accepted the fight on just six days' notice, during which time he needed to both come up with a game plan and shed 20 pounds to make weight. That is, objectively, ridiculous. Though Usman believes Masvidal only took the matchup in the first place so he’d have a built-in excuse when he lost, the latter has enjoyed much more time to prepare his body and hone his strategy this time around.

Oddsmakers are still heavily favoring Usman. We understand that slant. Masvidal is a better wrestler than a pure MMA fighter. He is landing only 47 percent of his strikes and doesn’t put together the same quick and powerful combinations when targeting from the shoulders up. Usman is the far more precise and potent striker and has a longer reach.

Kamaru Usman odds

It’s definitely worth noting that Masvidal pushed their last fight to a decision at all despite having such little time to prepare. That’s an accomplishment by itself considering the circumstances. But Usman has never lost a professional MMA fight as the favorite. We don’t expect that to change here.

OSB Prediction: Kamaru Usman (-400)

Kamaru Usman To beat Jorge Masvidal

Valentina Shevchenko (-400) vs. Jessica Andrade (+300)

Valentina Shevchenko is putting her Flyweight championship on the line, and while the oddsmakers peg her as the overwhelming favorite, we’re not so sure.

Jessica Andrade, the former Strawweight champion, just dispatched Katlyn Chookagian in a single round while almost exclusively using her new striking form. Perhaps that’s a one-off situation, but Andrade sure looks the part of a potent speedster now. She’s currently landing over 6.5 strikes per minute, which is nearly double that of Shevchenko.

The reigning champion no doubt will be in control when grappling, and the longer this match goes on, the better for her it’ll be. But we can’t shake this feeling that Andrade’s turned a corner.

At the very least, speculation of her demise was ill-thought. She beat Rosie Namajunas once, before then falling to her in a rematch and losing to current Strawweight champion Weili Zhang, who is on a 21-fight winning streak.

Those are immensely tough pulls. Her fighting style is more suited to finagling the upset here.

OSB Prediction: Jessica Andrade (+300)

Jessica Andrade To beat Valentina Shevchenko

Weili Zhang (-185) vs. Rosie Namajunas (+150)

The build-up to this fight has mostly focused on Rose Namajunas getting personal with Weili Zhang, who is making her second Strawweight title defense.

Namajunas claims she isn’t just trying to regain the belt she lost a while back to Jessica Andrade; she says this is her stand against communism. That is...something.

weili zhang odds

Regardless of the motivation she has, though, it’ll be tough to bag a victory. Zhang is connecting on over five strikes per minute entering UFC 261 and boasts a significant north-south agility edge on Namajunas. The latter has some understated lateral quickness to her credit, but unless she’s able to bring Zhang to the floor, she’ll be hard-pressed to pick up a win.

OSB Prediction: Weili Zhang (-185)

Weili Zhang To beat Rose Namajunas

Uriah Hall (-115) vs Chris Weidman (-105)

While the bout between Uriah Hall and Chris Weidman is the only non-title fight of the four marquee matchups, it is probably the most tightly contested one.

Hall appears to have the early advantage, even if only a slight one. He is working on a three-fight winning streak and has done a much better job of landing his combinations, hitting on 51 percent of his strike attempts overall. 

There is a tendency for Hall to let a few too many opposing strikes hit before turning into the aggressor, so we’re reluctant to say this will be an easy win. Weidman also plays some of the best defense in the business. He might even be our pick if his own striking wasn’t so haphazard.

OSB Prediction: Uriah Hall (-115)

Uriah Hall To beat Chris Weidman

Check out this list of the best online sportsbooks so you can decide which one to use for all your UFC betting:

Meet the author

Quinn Allen

Quinn Allen leverages his broadcast journalism degree and passion for sports in his betting previews and analysis. Based in Kelowna, Canada, he has emerged as an expert voice with picks featured on OSB, MTS, SBD, and as a ClutchPoints editor. With a lifelong fandom of...

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