The Danish section of the 2022 Tour de France is completed, so with the first race break in the tour, it’s the ideal time to take a look at the betting for the remainder of the race.
Monday was officially a transfer day, as opposed to a rest day. The riders are transferring from the Danish town of Sonderborg (the finish of the 3rd Stage) to the French coastal city of Dunkirk for the start of Stage 4 later today.
???????? ➡️ ???????? After 3 stages in Denmark, riders will continue to write the #TDF2022's story in France
???????? ➡️ ???????? Après 3 étapes au Danemark, les coureurs se donnent rendez-vous en France pour continuer à écrire l'histoire de ce #TDF2022 pic.twitter.com/hFislnoSS8
— Tour de France™ (@LeTour) July 4, 2022
The transfer day gives us a chance to look back at how the early skirmishes have played out and see if anybody has managed to gain an advantage. There isn’t usually anything significant happening in the early days of the tour, and it’s generally a time for the sprinters.
The main things that can happen in these early stages are crashes. So it’s a time of the race where the GC riders try to keep themselves out of trouble, as there is little to gain, but a hell of a lot to lose from them if they get themselves caught up in a tangle.
Tour de France: Tadej Pogačar, Chris Froome, Dani Martínez, Ben O’Connor involved in late crashhttps://t.co/bXI1Qf0EIm #TDF2022 pic.twitter.com/6F7phVpsLP
— VeloNews (@velonews) July 2, 2022
Pogacar already Taking Time out of GC Rivals
In the fight to top General Classification (Yellow Jersey), it’s been a good first three days for all the main contenders. I say that from the point of view that all the main pre-race favorites are still in one piece, and still in the race.
On the flip side, it’s not great news for all of those guys, as Tadej Pogacar, the defending champion has already managed to sneak a few seconds ahead of his main rivals.
Day 2 @LeTour ✅
Blown away by the crowds here in Denmark ???????? pic.twitter.com/pQr6tyICuf
— Tadej Pogačar (@TamauPogi) July 2, 2022
The UAE Team Emirates rider currently sits 3rd in GC, just 14 seconds behind Wout Van Aert, and just 7 seconds behind Yves Lampaert in second place. Neither of those two is expected to trouble the GC. For example, if you think Van Aert can hold onto Yellow Jersey, he is +5000 to win the Tour de France, so get on him.
In truth though, backing Van Aert to win the tour, is like backing Roger Federer to beat Mike Tyson in a boxing bout. Van Aert can’t climb, and so will be dropped like Federer would be by a Tyson punch when the riders get to the mountains.
Latest GC Tour de France Betting
| 2022 Tour de France Winner Betting |  |  |
|---|---|---|
| Tadej Pogacar | -140 | -140 |
| Jonas Vingegaard | +500 | +475 |
| Primoz Roglic | +550 | +475 |
| Geraint Thomas | +2500 | +2200 |
| Alexander Vlasov | +2800 | +2500 |
| Daniel Martinez | +4000 | +2800 |
| Ben O'Connor | +6600 | +2800 |
| Adam Yates | +8000 | +2500 |
| Romain Bardet | +8000 | +5000 |
| Enric Mas Nicolau | +10000 | +8000 |
| Wout van Aert | +12500 | +12000 |
| Nairo Quintana | +15000 | +5000 |
| David Gaudu | +15000 | +12000 |
| Ruben Guerreiro | +15000 | +15000 |
It’s the fact that Pogacar has opened up a small lead over his GC rivals that must make his fellow GC hopefuls despair, and we haven’t even reached the mountains yet.
In the latest cycling betting, Pogacar is -140 to win his third tour in as many years, and he has only opened up a lead of 8 seconds over pre-race second favorite Jonas Vinegaard and a 9-second lead over the third podium candidate, Primoz Roglic.
The lead over the Ineos Grenadiers trio of Geraint Thomas, Daniel Martinez, and Adam Yates is slightly more significant though. Already Pogacar leads Yates by 16 seconds, Thomas by 18 seconds, and Martinez by 37 seconds. While that might not sound much, in a race of close margins, that’s a decent head start before the mountains are even reached.
I’m not sure it’s a significant enough lead over Vinegaard and Roglic to justify a huge change in the betting odds yet. But if nothing else, Pogacar has already sent a strong message out to
his GC rivals.
Wout Van Aert; The Early Points Classification Leader
Elsewhere, and in the Points Classification, Wout Van Aert’s electric start to the race has seen his Tour de France betting odds cut to just -250 to win Green Jersey. Van Aert is the Points Classification leader, but as the current wearer of the Yellow Jersey, he won’t be seen in Green until he relinquishes the race lead, as the Yellow Jersey takes precedence over the Green one.
Van Aert has already scored 107 points in the first three stages and leads Netherland’s Fabio Jakobsen (90 points) by 17, and is a massive 57 points clear of Dylan Groenewegen, who sits in third place on 60 points.
So far, Van Aert has finished second in all three stages. The Belgian sprint ace is yet to win a Green Jersey at the tour. He will probably never get a better chance than this year, and it seems that the best cycling betting websites agree, with his odds set at -250.
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Can Peter Sagan Roll Back the Years?
One man who could potentially put a stick in the spokes of Van Aert’s bike wheel is Peter Sagan. The Slovak cyclist has won the Green Jersey on seven previous occasions and sits ominously in fourth position this year.
Sagan is only on 54 points and is already 53 behind Van Aert. But this guy knows how to win Green Jerseys. Sagan is the third favorite in the betting to win the Points Classification at +750, with Fabio Jakobsen second at +400.
The last of Sagan’s seven Green Jersey wins did come in 2019, and we are a long way away from his dominant days when he won the jersey for five successive years from 2012 to 2016. But Sagan is only 32, and he has been in woeful form of late. So if he is finally discovering his old self, Sagan could yet prove dangerous to Van Aert’s Green Jersey chances.
If Sagan is looking for inspiration, he needs to look no further back than last year’s tour. 12 months ago Mark Cavendish won 4 stages and the Green Jersey at the grand young age of 36. So at the sprightly age of just 32, Sagan could well have a part left to play in this year’s race.
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