After an enthralling race in Austin, the F1 roadshow heads south this week for the 2023 Mexico City Grand Prix. Max Verstappen (-325) is the favorite to win again. But after struggling in the USA last Sunday, he's not as short in the betting to win this weekend as he usually is. Here, we look ahead to the race and name our expert Formula One betting picks for the Mexican Grand Prix.
- What; 2023 Mexico City Grand Prix - Round 20
- Where; Autódromo Hermanos Rodríguez, Mexico City, Mexico
- When; Sunday, October 29th, 2023
- Time; 3 pm ET
- Laps; 71
- Track Length; 4.304 km
- Race Distance; 305.354 km
- Most Constructor Wins; Red Bull and Lotus 4
- Most Driver Wins; Max Verstappen 4
Last weekend we saw a boring Sprint race dominated and won by Max Verstappen, but a far more interesting Grand Prix that was ultimately still won by Max Verstappen - his 15th win this season, and 50th race win in total.
MAX VERSTAPPEN WINS THE US GRAND PRIX! HIS 50TH RACE WIN! 🇺🇸 pic.twitter.com/ZToRTTVlMm
— Sky Sports F1 (@SkySportsF1) October 22, 2023
But, the Dutchman was far from happy with his car, and if Mercedes had got their pit stop strategy correct, Lewis Hamilton would probably have won the race.
Hamilton was a couple of laps too late coming in to change tires. This delay was enough to see Verstappen hold on to the lead at the end as a charging Hamilton closed the gap to just 2.2 seconds. Had the race lasted a couple more laps, Hamilton would have caught the Dutchman and very likely passed him for a first Grand Prix win in two seasons.
Sergio Perez the big winner
In the end, it didn’t matter anyway, as Hamilton (and Charles Leclerc) were both disqualified for essentially failing plank checks. This is not a reflection of their intelligence. But believe it or not, F1 cars have planks down the middle to stop them from being too close to the floor. Hamilton and Leclerc’s planks were deemed to be too thin, and as a result, they were both kicked out of the race.
— Formula 1 (@F1) October 23, 2023
Lewis Hamilton’s disqualification is crucial in the betting to win the Driver’s Championship without Verstappen. He would have been closing in on Sergio Perez had his second-place finish (worth 18 points) stood. But in the end, Hamilton scored zero points, and Perez was elevated up to fourth position and scored 12 points.
Perez now has 240 points to Hamiltons 201. But in the betting, Perez hasn’t moved since last weekend. He is still at -400, with Hamilton at +275. The best Formula 1 online betting sites are saying that Hamilton still has a chance of catching Perez across the last four races of the season.
Betting to Win the 2023 Mexico City Grand Prix
In 2022, Max Verstappen was victorious at the Autódromo Hermanos Rodríguez. The Dutchman finished ahead of second-placed Lewis Hamilton, with his Red Bull teammate Sergio Perez finishing third. Verstappen started on the pole, and the fastest lap was by George Russell.
The race was dominated by Red Bull and Mercedes. And this is reflected in the betting 12 months on.
Also playing a part in the betting odds are the respective performances of Red Bull and Mercedes last weekend in Austin. Max Verstappen wasn't happy with his car, and as mentioned earlier, would almost certainly have been caught by Hamilton had the race been a couple of laps longer.
This weekend Verstappen is -325 to win the race. Yes, that's very short. But not as short as the -450 he was this time last week to win in Austin. Verstappen is usually -450 to win most weeks.
Second in the betting this weekend is Lewis Hamilton at +900, with Sergio Perez at +1000. After his (promoted to) second-place finish in the USA Grand Prix, it’s strange to see Lando Norris out at +1400 this weekend. But he was passed with relative ease by both Verstappen and Hamilton at Austin, showing his McLaren wasn’t able to mix it with the other two constructors.
Full Mexican Grand Prix betting is available on our F1 odds table. More information about the bookmakers we use is on our betting bonuses and promotions page.
Our Mexico City Grand Prix Picks
We backed McLaren last week, thinking the high-speed corners would give them a better chance, and maybe they could upset Red Bull. It seems pointless picking anybody else to win a Grand Prix, as the Max Verstappen/Red Bull combination is just too strong. So instead this weekend, we are looking at the top three finish betting.
Verstappen is -700, Hamilton is -150, Perez is -150, and Norris is +120. This is the home Grand Prix of Perez, but how could anybody back him at odds on given his recent form?
Mercedes seems on the up, so we are prepared to back Lewis Hamilton. But we are making Lando Norris to finish in the top three our main pick. He has been in the top three in his last four races. And we feel he is a better bet than the underperforming Perez to be standing on the podium.
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