With Max Verstappen set to dominate the 2024 F1 season, we look at the betting to win the Drivers’ Championship without Verstappen in our latest Formula futures. Sergio Perez leads the way. But the two Ferraris of Charles Leclerc and Carlos Sainz look better value picks at this early stage of the season.
- Max Verstappen dominated the 2023 F1 season, winning all but three of the 22 races and standing on the podium 21 times.
- Verstappen looks set to dominate again this year and with his odds to win the Championship already at -800, that betting market looks dead.
- In the betting to win the Championship without Verstappen, Sergio Perez leads the way. But the Mexican has plenty of company, with the two Ferrari drivers set to be his biggest rivals.
Pre-season testing for 2024 told us that Ferrari is in the best position to pick up any scraps Red Bull might leave behind.
But in testing, Red Bull held back. This gave everyone a glimmer of hope that it wasn’t Red Bull sandbagging and that the car wasn’t as fast as we all expected.
As a result, the new season began with a tinge of optimism that this wouldn’t be another procession. But after only ten laps of the Bahrain Grand Prix, it was already obvious what was going to happen. And that looks set to be the tone for the rest of the 2024 season.
Betting to win the 2024 F1 Drivers’ Championship
Max Verstappen coasted to a comfortable victory in the opening race of the F1 season in Bahrain last Saturday.
MAX VERSTAPPEN WINS the 2024 Bahrain Grand Prix for RED BULL at the season-opening race!
It's his 55th win, picking up where he left off 2023.
He gets the EXTRA POINT for FASTEST LAP 1:32.608#F1 #F124BAH #BAH #BahrainGP #Formula1 #MV1 #MV33 #win #podium #points #fastestlap pic.twitter.com/OXNHcrO2Ei
— F1 Racing (@F1racing) March 2, 2024
His win was over 20 seconds ahead of Sergio Perez, who again looked miles away from possibly challenging his vastly superior teammate. The best way to sum it up was to say it was just a continuation of the 2023 season.
Max Verstappen is already -800 to win the Drivers’ Championship this year. He was -375 at the end of the 2023 season. And he went into preseason testing at the same odds. After testing, Verstappen’s odds were cut to -700. And after the opening race, a further trim to -800.
But the reality is that the best Formula 1 online betting sites already knew what would happen before the Bahrain race. All the result has done is confirm what everybody was thinking would happen.
Verstappen’s closest rival in the betting is Charles Leclerc. The Monégasque is +1200. Lando Norris and Lewis Hamilton are next at +2200. Carlos Sainz is at +2800, with George Russell and Sergio Perez at +4000. The 2024 championship already looks all over.
Betting to win the Drivers’ Championship without Max Verstappen
In the betting to win the Drivers’ Championship without Verstappen, Sergio Perez is the favorite at -120.
It seems strange to see Perez second in this market when he is out at +4000 to win the Drivers’ Championship. But this is because even if the race between Verstappen and Perez is close, Red Bull would instruct Perez not to attack his team leader. Meaning Perez simply wouldn’t be allowed to finish above the triple-world champion.
Following on from Perez in the betting is Charles Leclerc at +300. Leclerc is the No.1 driver at Ferrari. And he would also benefit from team orders. Although, with Carlos Sainz leaving the team after the season, it’s debatable if the Spaniard would follow any instructions from his pit lane in close races.
Lando Norris and Lewis Hamiton are next at +1000, with Carlos Sainz at +1400. Full odds are available on our F1 odds table. For more information about the bookmakers on our Formula 1 odds table, please check out our betting bonuses and promotions page.
| Driver |  |  |  |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sergio Perez | -120 | -120 | -120 |
| Charles Leclerc | +300 | +300 | +300 |
| Lewis Hamilton | +1000 | +1000 | +1000 |
| Lando Norris | +1000 | +1000 | +1000 |
| Carlos Sainz | +1400 | +1400 | +1400 |
| George Russell | +2500 | +2500 | +2500 |
| Oscar Piastri | +2800 | +2800 | +2800 |
| Fernando Alonso | +4000 | +4000 | +4000 |
| Daniel Ricciardo | +10000 | +10000 | +10000 |
| Alexander Albon | '+25000 | '+25000 | '+25000 |
Our Pick
Charles Leclerc looks the better value bet to win the Drivers’ Championship without Max Verstappen. The odds on Perez are too short, and he is too unreliable.
In 2023, after the first four races, Sergio Perez was -1000 in this market. By the end of the season, he was hanging on to second place in the Drivers’ Championship by the skin of his teeth.
Any Perez backers must have been combusting.
Charles Leclerc had a shocking first half of the season in 2023. There is no way Ferrari can let that happen again in 2024. They are awaiting the arrival of Lewis Hamilton in the new year, and they don't want the seven-times World Champion turning up with the team in a mess.
⚠️ | Charles Leclerc was losing an estimated 6-tenths per lap in the first 20 laps at Bahrain.
“He had the problem throughout the race. We have to make sure that nothing like this happens again,” said Fred Vasseur.
“We have to have clean races.”
Ferrari will also bring a new… pic.twitter.com/RmBmTntU7k
— Fastest Pitstop (@FastestPitStop) March 4, 2024
Even with the brake issues that cost Leclerc up to six-tenths of a second per lap in Bahrain, the Monégasque still managed to finish fourth. Once those issues are fixed, we expect Charles Leclerc to compete with Perez for second place behind Verstappen.
And with the Ferrari driver at the better odds, we make Charles Leclerc our betting pick.
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