California Sports Betting Push Could Get Ugly

It may be time to rethink the inevitable push to legalize California sports betting again.

Despite the failure to get one of two legislative measures over the hump in 2022, optimism is generally on the rise about the future of sports betting in The Golden State. Tribal nations and some of the biggest online sportsbooks in the United States are better terms. Collaboration is no longer a theory. It is a reality.

Certain sportsbooks have gone as far as hiring executives with ties to tribal nations. The endgame is obvious: They want to get California sports betting over the hump in any way they can.

Or so we thought.

More than anything, the uptick in collaboration between tribes and sportsbooks supposedly suggests the latter is willing to legalize sports betting in California on the former’s terms. This means that corporate sportsbooks would enter the market in a purely supportive capacity. They could help tribal nations operate online sportsbooks, much like Hard Rocket Bet does for the Seminole Tribe in Florida. They would not, however, be able to independently provide sports gambling services.

Traveling this route would mark a huge concession on the part of sports betting sites. They blanched at this proposal back in 2022. The thinking is that they now understand getting even a small cut of California sports betting market beats an equal share of no California sports betting at all.

Yet, the assumption all along was sportsbooks would get on board with tribal nations’ plans so long as they might one day have the availability operate on their own. Based on the latest comments and developments, though, it is not clear whether this dynamic is as amicable as many believe.

A New California Sports Betting Alternative is Throwing a Wrench in Optimism

The rise of sports predictions markets—or, event-based contracts—is beginning to grate on tribal operators. This is not particularly surprising.

Operators offering event-based contracts argue their transactions are trades rather than sports bets. This, they argue, means they are subject to federal regulation, and don’t need a sports betting license that have (or even have not) legalized wagering. If this sounds familiar, that’s because it is familiar. Daily fantasy sports sites like PrizePicks and Underdog for so long existed in a similarly gray area. California eventually took action against them. As GH.org’s Brian Pempus writes, prediction markets may garner a decisive response from lawmakers and tribal nations in The Golden State:

“The online betting industry suffered a humiliating defeat at the ballot box in 2022. It became clear that the California tribal gambling industry is too powerful and united. They won’t allow betting app firms to seize part of their turf. As part of the turf war, California Attorney General Rob Bonta wrote in July 2025 that daily fantasy sports (DFS) platforms (for example, PrizePicks) constitute illegal sports gambling under state law.

‘[However, now] so-called ‘prediction’ platforms like Kalshi and Polymarket have circumvented California law to offer online sports betting. In August 2025, Robinhood announced the launch of nationwide NFL betting under a partnership with Kalshi. Also in August, California policymakers were considering legislation to ban so-called sweepstakes sportsbooks, such as Sportzino, Fliff Sportsbook and Stake, which have used a free-play loophole to circumvent state law.”

These prediction-market operators are notable because they engender further discussions about why California sports betting should be limited to tribal operators, since it would be, in theory, more responsibly regulated.

FanDuel will be a Gauge for the Future of California Sports Gambling

Equally important, some of these event-based-outcome operators could one day seek a California sports betting license if the laws ever change. By working around the current laws, though, they are seemingly putting their longer-term future at risk.

That brings us to FanDuel.

They are among the operators who have most aggressively pushed tribal collaboration. However, they have also recently entered the predictions-market game themselves. In fact, they have launched event-based-contract services in every state that has yet to legalize sports betting—with the exception of California.

It does not take a genius to connect the dots here. Tribal nations are more powerful in The Golden State than anywhere else. Given their influence over policymakers, California sports betting is not getting legalized, in all likelihood, unless they are on board. If FanDuel wants to remain in their good graces while they bide time for sports betting in The Golden State to get legalized, rolling out prediction-market transactions is the exact opposite way of doing that.

Still, it’s tough to say whether California tribal nations will appreciate the gesture of FanDuel excluding them from general sports betting circumvention. What’s more, we can’t even be sure FanDuel keeps prediction-market transactions out of The Golden State Forever. Texas is another highly sought after market dripping in sports betting legalization controversy, and FanDuel’s prediction markets are live there anyway.

Are FanDuel’s Actions Proof California Legalization Could be Coming Soon?

Perhaps this says something about the state of California sports betting discussions. Where Texas feels years away from changing its tune, The Golden State could revamps its laws as early as 2026. By staying out of the market with their event-based contracts, FanDuel could be nodding toward imminent legalization.

Then again, FanDuel and others could eventually decide to throw their patience by the wayside. Certain courts have already temporarily upheld prediction markets in states contesting them. If California doesn’t make headway on sports betting legislation in 2026, we could see FanDuel tossing its prediction-market restraint out the window and entering the market anyway.

This is what to watch for more moving forward. The actions of FanDuel, specifically, could be the bellwether on the entire California sports betting conversation.

Take a look at this list of the top online sportsbooks so you can find one that works for all of your sports betting needs: