Premier League Darts Picks; MVG favored again, but he's not the value bet

Dean Etheridge
By , Updated on: Apr 3, 2023 08:00 PM
Premier League Darts Picks; MVG favored again, but he's not the value bet

After a foray into Germany for Night Nine, the 2023 Premier League Darts roadshow is back in the UK, with Birmingham hosting the Night Ten action. Jonny Clayton took the honors in Berlin, and in winning on the night, he brought to an end a five week sequence of wins for Michael Van Gerwen and Gerwyn Price. Will we see another different winner in Birmingham? Or will normal service resume with one of MVG or Price winning again? Here we take a closer look with our latest darts betting picks.

  • What; Premier League Darts - Night Ten
  • Where; Utilita Arena, Birmingham, Germany
  • When; Thursday, April 6th, 2023
  • Time; 2 pm ET

Although he fell at the semi-final stage in Germany in last week’s Premier League, it’s fair to say that Gerwyn Price is currently on fire in the PDC. On Sunday night in Riesa, he defeated Michael Van Gerwen 8-4 to complete a convincing victory, and make it back-to-back titles on the PDC European Tour.

Price averaged more than 105 on his way to his second European Tour victory in as many weeks. Along with his recent back-to-back wins in the Premier League, this underlines just why Price is the in-form player in world darts at the moment.

Betting to win Night Ten

Ahead of Night Nine, Gerwyn Price was third in the betting to win on the night. Last week in Germany, Price went into the night’s action as the +350, third favorite. This week he is the +275, second favorite.

As is the case every week in the 2023 Premier League Darts season, Michael van Gerwen is the favorite. This week the Dutchman is +175, the same odds he was last week.

Current world champion and world number one, Michael Smith is third in the betting at +400. Smith has been struggling of late, but he has shown some signs of coming back to form over the past 10 to 14 days.

Full betting for Night Ten can be found below. These odds are taken from the best darts betting sites. More information about these bookmakers can be found on our online sportsbook review page.

Premier League Darts; Night Ten Winner BettingBetOnlineBovadaMyBookie
Michael van Gerwen+175+175+175
Gerwyn Price+275+275+275
Michael Smith+400+400+400
Jonny Clayton+900+900+900
Peter Wright+1200+1200+1200
Dimitri Van den Bergh+1200+1200+1200
Nathan Aspinall+1200+1200+1200
Chris Dobey+2000+2000+2000

Night Ten Winner Pick

Onto the night’s action, and MVG finds himself in the favorable half of the draw this week. Mighty Mike seems to have a clear pathway to the final, with Chris Dobey in the quarter-finals, and either Aspinall or Clayton in the last four.

Quarter-Finals

  1. Michael van Gerwen vs Chris Dobey
  2. Nathan Aspinall vs Jonny Clayton
  3. Dimitri Van den Bergh vs Gerwyn Price
  4. Peter Wright vs Michael Smith

Semi-Finals

  1. Michael van Gerwen/Chris Dobey vs Nathan Aspinall/Jonny Clayton
  2. Dimitri Van den Bergh/Gerwyn Price vs Peter Wright/Michael Smith

But as we seem with Jonny Clayton’s win in Berlin, it doesn’t always play out this way. Clayton defeated MVG, Price, and then Michael Smith in the final on his way to an amazing Night Nine win.

This makes picking a winner this week extremely hard, that’s for sure. Any of the five guys outside of the big three are good value, as all are at double figures. But how can we select any of them? The in-form guy is Gerwyn Price, but it’s like when MVG is playing well, they can’t win everything every week.

We’re going to have to stick with Gerwyn Price though, due to his form. But we’re only making him our lukewarm pick this week.

Gerwyn Price To Win Night Ten
+275
BetOnline

Now, onto Night Ten’s quarter-final matchups.

Michael van Gerwen -319 vs Chris Dobey +264

It’s fair to say that MVG has no value at -319 on the moneyline. The Dutchman is -108 to win from -2.5 legs on the handicap. That means he needs to win 6-3 for this bet to come in.

Chris Dobey is -122 with the start. He lost 6-4 to Aspinall in his quarter-final last week. We expect MVG to win, but the bet here is for over 5.5 match 180s at -115.

Over 5.5 180s MVG vs Chris Dobey
-115
BetOnline

Nathan Aspinall +102 vs Jonny Clayton -122

As we’ve just mentioned, Jonny Clayton won in Berlin. On the same night Aspinall lost his semi-final 6-4 to Michael Smith with a 98.91 average.

Clayton should win on form, but as we’ve seen the Premier League can throw up odd results. We’re going for Aspinall to bring Clayton back down to earth with a bump.

Nathan Aspinall To beat Jonny Clayton
+102
BetOnline

Dimitri Van den Bergh +200 vs Gerwyn Price -240

Gerwyn Price is just red hot at the moment. On the handicap line, the best online sports betting sites make Price +125 from -2.5 legs. Is that a good value bet? We think at odds against, it’s just worth the risk. Take the Icemen to win on the handicap.

Gerwyn Price (-2.5) To beat Dimitri Van den Bergh
+125
BetOnline

Peter Wright +167 vs Michael Smith -192

Finally, the hapless Peter Wright. Last week Wright lost 6-3 to Price in the quarter-finals with an average of just 92.78. Snakebite is really going through it lately. And even though he showed plenty of fight to get to the quarter-finals of the weekend’s European Tour event, he went out by losing 6-0 to MVG.

In the same event, Michael Smith lost 6-1 to Mike De Decker in the last 32. Neither of these guys are in great form, but Smith did make the Premier League final in Berlin last week.

We can’t be backing Smith at -192 though. But he is -122 to win from -1.5 legs on the handicap. That’s the difference between winning 6-5, and 6-4, so we’ll take Smith to win on the handicap for our final pick.

Michael Smith (-1.5) To beat Peter Wright
-122
BetOnline

Meet the author

Dean Etheridge

Dean Etheridge has over ten years of writing experience in the world of sports betting. Starting out as a hobby on his own soccer betting website, Dean has now seen his picks published across various affiliate sites along with The Sun and TalkSPORT where he writes regul...

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