Idaho Sports Betting Alternative Could Force Change

The future of Idaho sports betting has remained shrouded in outward defiance for as long as anyone can remember. On the surface, this is not going to change anytime soon. Yet, as it turns out, policymakers may have no choice other than to address it. If the current climate keeps up, the rise of prediction markets could force their hands.

What that actually looks like is anyone’s guess. The launch of sports betting alternatives could cut one of two ways. The Gem State could try to excise prediction-market operators from the region. Or these companies could prompt lawmakers to consider the legalization of sports betting in Idaho for the first time ever.

Regardless of the path chosen, rest assured the latest market developments will incite some kind of action.

Prediction Markets are Officially Live in The Gem State

Over the past two years or so, prediction markets have crept (and then exploded) into the mainstream consciousness. To close out 2025, they finally went live in The Gem State, billing themselves as an Idaho sports betting alternative without actually saying as much.

Certain experts and industry stakeholders initially elected not to make much of prediction markets. They did not, and some still do not, see it as a threat to conventional sports betting. But these sentiments got flipped on their head the moment that sportsbooks started offering their own prediction markets.

DraftKings and FanDuel closed out 2025 by launching their own prediction markets. They specifically did so to target states that have yet to legalize sports betting. This includes Alaska, Hawaii, California, Georgia, Texas, Minnesota, and yes, also Idaho.

It is harder to dismiss the sustainability and popularity of prediction markets when premier sportsbooks are boarding the bandwagon. At the very least, this suggests prediction markets are here to stay. At its most impactful, these transactions could undermine the traditional sports betting industry.

What Exactly Are Prediction Markets?

If you do not yet see the connection between Idaho prediction markets and how it could influence sports betting policy, do not worry. You are not alone. It requires some explaining.

Let’s begin with the most common question: What exactly are prediction markets, and how do they differ from illegal Idaho sports betting?

Prediction markets allow customers to place “trades” on yes-or-no event outcomes. “Will Boise State beat Oregon?” is one such example. Unlike conventional sports betting, the payouts on these transactions are determined by public investments. Ergo, the more people who “trade” on Boise State beating Oregon, the lower the prospective payout becomes. Prediction-market traders make their money by spotting undervalued investments on events. So, in this case, you would be sitting pretty if you believe Oregon will beat Boise State.

As part of this process, users are not betting against “The House.” Prediction-market companies take a cut of the transaction. But the vast majority of the money exchanging hands is between “traders.” It is similar to how the stock market works. That’s why they are regulated by the Federal Trades Commission. Idaho sports betting would instead be subject to state oversight. The latter is more expensive and restrictive, and of course, gives The Gem State’s policymakers more power. The looser guidelines of federal regulation have many wondering whether companies could look to replace sportsbook operations with prediction markets.

That sentiment likely goes a touch too far. Sportsbooks are in position to make more money per transaction. Remember, prediction markets are largely collecting a per-transaction fee. The United States’ top sportsbooks, on the other hand, rake in all the money off an unsuccessful wager.

The launch of prediction markets has to register as a real concern for Idaho lawmakers. And it’s not just because of the prospective tax revenue

Here’s How Prediction Markets Could Influence Idaho Sports Betting Policy

Make no mistake, this is part of it. The absence of Idaho sports betting has not stopped gambling altogether. Residents can cross state lines to place wagers. There are also plenty of reputable offshore betting sites sports fans can use, too.

Adding a legal alternative to the fold only stands to increase, let’s call it, sports betting-adjacent activity. People on the fence about Idaho sports betting might be swayed by a certain “Well, if it’s happening at a larger scale, the state might as well have more control and yield more revenue from it” logic.

Beyond that, there is also a feeling of impotence with regard to prediction markets. Idaho has successfully stymied not only traditional sports betting, but also daily fantasy sports. But because prediction markets are federally regulated, they will have a tougher time shutting them down.

Other states can speak to that difficulty. Multiple motions have been filed against prediction-market operators by numerous states. Much of the litigation remains pending. In every case, however, prediction markets are allowed to continue offering their services inside these states.

Most within the industry do not see states making much headway on this matter for a few years. See, the rise of prediction markets has coincided with President Donald Trump’s second term. This regime is more pro-corporation than the first time around. It also doesn’t hurt that President Trump’s son has an ownership stake in one of the most population prediction-market companies.

So, in the event The Game State can’t put a stop to prediction markets, they have one of two options. They could do nothing, or they could reconsider their Idaho sports betting stance. As for which path they’ll choose, we’ll just have to wait and see.

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