2026 MLB Most Home Runs Picks

Cal Raleigh's 60 home runs led major league baseball last year, but Aaron Judge is the favorite to smash the most dingers in 2026 after going deep a combined 111 times over the past two campaigns.

Let's check the latest futures and uncover some long shots to lead the league in long balls next season.

To Hit the Most Home Runs
Aaron Judge (NYY)	+350	+350	+350
Shohei Ohtani (LAD)	+400	+400	+400
Kyle Schwarber (PHI)	+800	+800	+800
Cal Raleigh (SEA)	+900	+900	+900
Pete Alonso (BAL)	+1100	+1100	+1100
Junior Caminero (TB)	+1200	+1200	+1200
Nick Kurtz (ATH)	+1400	+1400	+1400
Juan Soto (NYM)	+1500	+1500	+1500
Vladimir Guerrero Jr. (TOR)	+2200	+2200	+2200
Matt Olson (ATL)	+3000	+3000	+3000
Fernando Tatis Jr. (SD)	+4000	+4000	+4000
Ronald Acuna Jr. (ATL)	+4500	+4500	+4500
Brent Rooker (ATH)	+5000	+5000	+5000
Yordan Alvarez (HOU)	+5000	+5000	+5000
Julio Rodriguez (SEA)	+5500	+5500	+5500
Eugenio Suarez (SEA)	+6000	+6000	+6000
Rafael Devers (SF)	+6000	+6000	+6000
Bryce Harper (PHI)	+8000	+8000	+8000
Jo Adell (LAA)	+8000	+8000	+8000

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Aaron Judge favored for most home runs

Aaron Judge (+350) smashed 52 home runs in 2025 and led the league the previous season with 58. The reigning two-time American League MVP's career high came in 2022 when he went yard on 62 occasions. He also paced MLB in slugging percentage by wide margins in 2022 (.686), 2024 (.701) and 2025 (.688).

The only blip on the radar came in 2023 when the Yankees slugger tore a ligament in his toe, causing him to miss 56 games. Even then, Judge still managed 37 HRs with a .613 slugging percentage.

My last tweet of 2025. Aaron Judge

pic.twitter.com/Jfztrvrewq

— Jason (@JasonTalksYanks) January 1, 2026

Other top contenders

Shohei Ohtani (+400) has hit 109 home runs in his first two years with the Dodgers, only two shy of Judge's 111 over the past two seasons. Kyle Schwarber (+800) finished runner up with 56 taters in 2025. The 32-year-old has put up monster power numbers since joining the Phillies, swatting 187 homers over the last four years.

Cal Raleigh (+900) led the MLB with 60 moon shots last year. That was 26 more than the Mariners catcher hit the previous season so buyer beware. The Orioles' prized free agent signing Pete Alonzo (+1100) hit 34 or more home runs in six of seven campaigns with the Mets. But his career high of 53 came way back in his 2019 rookie year.

Best longshots

Junior Caminero (+1200) hit 45 home runs in his first full season with the Tampa Bay Rays. The 22-year-old Dominican could make another giant leap in production in the year ahead. Similarly, the sky's the limit for Oakland A's rookie Nick Kurtz (+1400), who parked 36 balls in the bleachers in just 117 games.

Vladimir Guerrero Jr. (+2200) tied for the league lead in long balls (48) back in 2021. While he hasn't hit more than 32 over the next four seasons, the Blue Jays first baseman launched 8 HRs in 18 October games in Toronto's run to the World Series.

It’s Shohei Day! ⚾

Relive some of Ohtani’s best moments all day on MLB Network 📺 pic.twitter.com/UsDU93DDHj

— MLB Network (@MLBNetwork) January 7, 2026

It feels irresponsible to pick anyone other than Judge (+350) or Ohtani (+400) with both sluggers still squarely in their prime. However, Caminero (+1200) and Kurtz (+1400) offer much more value heading into the season.

Junior Caminero Most Home Runs