Will Francesco Bagnaia Pick Up Another Win at the 2024 MotoGP Portugal Grand Prix?

Dan Favale
By , Updated on: Mar 20, 2024 08:00 PM
Will Francesco Bagnaia Pick Up Another Win at the 2024 MotoGP Portugal Grand Prix?

Can anyone stop Francesco Bagnaia from winning a third straight MotoGP World Riders’ Championship? That’s the question everyone was asking to begin the season. And it’s the same one they’re asking ahead of the 2024 MotoGP Portugal Grand Prix this weekend.

  • What: Portugal Grand Prix
  • Date: Sunday, March 24
  • Time: 4 p.m. GMT / 12 p.m. EST
  • Where: Algarve International Circuit
  • Favorite to Win: Francesco Bagnaia (+120)
  • Reigning Portugal Grand Prix Winner: Francesco Bagnaia

Don’t expect the hype surrounding Bagnaia to subside anytime soon. He isn’t just favored to win it all this year. He is the heavy favorite to win the 2024 MotoGP World Championship. Heck, the fact that he’s paying out better than even money to win the 2024 Portugal Grand Prix feels like a minor miracle. He’s been that dominant. 

That’s not to say no one else has a chance. The latest online MotoGP betting odds have a handful of other worthwhile options on the board:

To Win Qatar Grand PrixBovadaBetOnlineMyBookie
Francesco Bagnaia+120+120+120
Jorge Martin+275+275+275
Marc Marquez+300+300+300
Brad Binder+700+700+700
Luca Marini+1000+1000+1000
Pedro Acosta+1600+1600+1600
Alex Marquez+1800+1800+1800
Fabio Di Giannantonio+3300+3300+3300
Enea Bastianini+5000+5000+5000
Alex Espargaro+5000+5000+5000
Maverick Vinales+5000+5000+5000
Fabio Quartararo+7500+7500+7500
Marco Bezzecchi+7500+7500+7500
Miguel Oliveira+10000+10000+10000
Jack MIller+10000+10000+10000
Raul Fernandez+15000+15000+15000
Alex Rins+20000+20000+20000
Johann Zarco+50000+50000+50000
Franco Morbidelli+50000+50000+50000
Augusto Fernandez+50000+50000+50000

Always remember to double-check these odds to win the 2024 Portugal Grand Prix until you actually submit your wager. Our 2024 MotoGP Portugal Grand Prix betting odds are accurate entering Thursday, March 21. That gives the best online sportsbooks in the United States plenty of time to make adjustments as the 2024 MotoGP markets continue to develop in advance of the March 24 race.

So, who are the best bets to take home first place in Sunday’s contest? Read on to find out our answers.

Is Francesco Bagnaia Offering Enough Value to Win the 2024 MotoGP Portugal Grand Prix?

After a dominant victory at the 2024 Qatar Grand Prix, Francesco Bagnaia (+120) is entering unique territory. His speed and precision are so unparalleled that his betting odds to win MotoGP races may soon lose their appeal. After all, bettors tend to like earning better than even money. At this rate, Bagnaia won’t always pay out above that threshold.

However, this is a problem for another race. At 1.2-to-1 odds, Francesco Bagnaia provides plenty of bang for his buck. And after watching him turn a fifth-place start during the Qatar Grand Prix into an ultra-early seizure of first place, it’s impossible to argue against his status as the MotoGP Portugal Grand Prix favorite.

Francesco Bagnaia To win the 2024 MotoGP Portugal Grand Prix

Who’s the Better Bet in Portugal: Jorge Martin or Marc Marquez?

Though Jorge Martin (+275) is considered the foremost rival to Bagnaia, Marc Marquez (+300) is quickly ascending up the ladder. 

And yet, Marquez (fourth) finished roughly two seconds behind Martin (third) in Qatar. The former is clearly still trying to figure out the proper way to handle his new Ducati. This learning curve is unlikely to have ebbed after just one race. Marquez was a little more cautious on his turns at Qatar than we’re used to seeing. 

Martin, meanwhile, gave Bagnaia a run for his money early on. He eventually seeded ground to Brad Binder (second place), but his mechanics on straightaways and heading into turns remain incredibly crafty.

Jorge Martin To win the 2024 MotoGP Portugal Grand Prix

Will Brad Binder Continue Climbing the Ranks?

Speaking of Brad Binder (+700), he bagged a second-place finish in Qatar. While he wasn’t that close to Bagnaia, trailing him by over 1.3 seconds, the Italian rider did manage to put some last-minute pressure on the champ before fading down the stretch.

To be sure, Binder isn’t suddenly the second best driver in the world. But he has considerably tightened up his turns. The way he outmaneuvered Martin on Lap 11 in Qatar was truly brilliant. And it showed the kind of growth that renders him a threat to win any give race—including this one.

Brad Binder To win the 2024 MotoGP Portugal Grand Prix

Best Dark Horse to Win the 2024 MotoGP Portugal Grand Prix

Enea Bastianini (+5000) best known for being Francesco Bagnaia’s Ducati teammate. But he’s starting to make a name for himself independent of the world’s best rider.

Bastianini’s growth was on full display during the Qatar Grand Prix. He nudged Pedro Acosta (+1600) out of fifth place during the final quarter of the race and then proceeded to fend off an 11th-hour tear from Alex Marquez (+1800). 

Consistency is key for Bastianini. He can sometimes have a heavy foot on weak side turns, and his navigation of traffic in early laps isn’t the cleanest. Still, coming off a fifth place finish at the Qatar Grand Prix and sporting 5-to-1 odds, it’s impossible to deny his dark hose appeal ahead of the Portugal Grand Prix.

Enea Bastianini To win the 2024 MotoGP Portugal Grand Prix

Official 2024 Portugal Grand Prix Prediction

Winning back-to-back races is hard. Not even Bagnaia did it all that frequently in 2023. But we can’t ignore how flawless his riding has become. 

Bagnaia’s meld of speed and precision is largely unheard of. What’s more, it used to take him time to recover when he’d start heats from a lower position. But if his quick-fire work from fifth place at the Qatar Grand Prix is any indication, Bagnaia has the chops to cut through traffic like a knife through butter

Frankly, until he stops laying better than even money or loses this season, he’s the default best bet not just at the 2024 MotoGP Portugal Grand Prix, but for every race on the calendar. 

OSB Prediction: Francesco Bagnaia (+120)

Francesco Bagnaia To win the 2024 MotoGP Portugal Grand Prix

Take a look at this list of the top online sportsbooks so you can find one that works for all of your sports betting needs:

Meet the author

Dan Favale

Dan Favale leverages over 12 years of sports journalism expertise in his role as New York staff writer. He provides in-depth analysis across the NBA, NFL, MLB, NHL, tennis, NASCAR, college basketball, and sports betting. Dan co-hosts the popular Hardwood Knocks NBA podc...

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