Geico 500 Picks: Kyle Logano JUST BARELY Leads Deep Field at Talladega SuperSpeedway

Dan Favale
By , Updated on: Apr 19, 2023 08:00 PM
Geico 500 Picks: Kyle Logano JUST BARELY Leads Deep Field at Talladega SuperSpeedway

The 2023 NASCAR season has been marked by parity at every turn, and as our Geico 500 picks are about to show, this doesn't appear to be changing anytime soon.

Sunday's race is going to have huge implications on the NASCAR Cup Series standings. Finding a worthwhile pick to win is both easy and difficult, because of how much depth is in the docket's lineup. But before we talk about our best bets, here are this year's Geico 500 details:

  • Race: Geico 500
  • Where: Talladega SuperSpeedway in Talladega, Alabama
  • When: Sunday, April 23 
  • Start Time: 3 p.m. Eastern Standard Time
  • Length: 188 laps (500 miles)
  • 2022 Geico 500 Winner: Ross Chastain

Typically, oddsmakers will give a little bump to last year's winner—especially at Talladega. That's not exactly happening with Ross Chastain, who enters the Geico 500 with 14-to-1 odds. Those are good enough to put him in the top seven, but it doesn't offer any separation from the other favorites. Speaking of which, you can see just how tightly contested the field at Talladega will be by checking out the latest online NASCAR betting odds ahead of Sunday's 500-mile extravaganza:

Driver to WinBetOnlineBovadaBetUS
Joey Logano+1000+900+1000
Ryan Blaney+1100+1100+1100
Denny Hamlin+1200+1200+1200
Chase Elliott+1200+1200+1200
William Byron+1400+1400+1400
Ross Chastain+1400+1400+1400
Brad Keselowski+1500+1500+1500
Kyle Busch+1600+1500+1600
Kyle Larson+1800+1800+1800
Christopher Bell+1800+1800+1800
Ricky Stenhouse Jr.+2000+2000+2000
Bubba Wallace+2000+2000+2000
Tyler Reddick+2200+2200+2200
Chris Buescher+2200+2200+2200
Alex Bowman+2200+2200+2200
Austin Cindric+2500+2500+2500
Erik Jones+2800+2500+2800
Daniel Suarez+2800+2500+2800
Austin Dillon+2800+2500+2800
Aric Almirola+2800+2500+2800
Martin Truex Jr.+3000+3000+3000
Kevin Harvick+3000+3000+3000
Chase Briscoe+3000+3000+4500
Ryan Preece+4500+4500+4500
Michael McDowell+4500+4500+4500
Justin Haley+4500+4500+4500
Austin Hill+4500+4500+4500
A.J. Allmendinger+5000+5000+5000
Ty Gibbs+5500+5500+5000
Corey Lajoie+5500+5500+5000
Zane Smith+7000+7000+7000
Noah Gragson+8000+8000+8000
Todd Gilliland+9000+9000+9000
Harrison Burton+9000+9000+9000
Riley Herbst+10000+10000+20000
Ty Dillon+20000+20000+20000
J.J. Yeley+50000+50000+50000
B.J. McLeod+50000+50000+50000

Like always, please remember to keep checking these NASCAR online betting odds until you have actually submitted your wager. Our Geico 500 betting odds are accurate entering Thursday, April 20. That gives linemakers plenty of time to shift the current betting odds in advance of the opening gun on Sunday.

Of course, you needn't worry about keeping track of any changes to Geico 500 betting lines if you're signed up with a reliable sportsbook. That's where we can help. Our reviews of all the top online sportsbooks are chock full of information. By the time you're done reading them, you'll have a strong hold on the  best online sports betting sites in the United States—not just for NASCAR wagering, but for all sports and leagues!

Anyway, Joey Logano (+1000) has been deemed the odds-on favorite to win the Geico 500. Does he crack our list of the best Geico 500 picks? Read on to find out!

Should Joey Logano be Favored to Win the Geico 500?

Joey Logano (+1000) is having a pretty good racing season, even by his lofty standards. His 2023 resume includes one victory, three top-five finishes and two overall pole placements. Combined with where he'll start the race on Sunday, he is worth your consideration.

Still, you'll want to approach picking Joey Logano to win the Geico 500 with measured expectations. He has finished better than 25th just once at the Talladega SuperSpeedway over his last five races, and he's posted just one top-10 finish here since October 2019.

Nevertheless, at 10-to-1 odds, he's offering good value for a NASCAR favorite.

Joey Logano To win the 2023 Geico 500

Add Chase Elliot to Your Potential Geico 500 Picks

Chase Elliott (+1200) returned to the NASCAR circuit last week after missing six races with a broken bone in his right leg. He wasted little time in regaining his composure, finishing in 10th at the NOCO 400.

What's more, Elliott won the Geico 500 in 2019 and also won last year's YellaWood 500, which also takes place at the Talladega SuperSpeedway. Given how well he's driven on this course, as well as his reputation for maintaining early leads, his 12-to-1 odds are a gift for value bettors.

Chase Elliott To win the 2023 Geico 500

Talladega SuperSpeedway Has Not Been Kind to NASCAR Cup Series Leader

Christopher Bell (+1800) continues to sit atop the 2023 NASCAR Cup Series leaderboard thanks to a handful of dominant performances. He is the only driver with two flat-out victories to his name, and he's also tied with Alex Bowman (+2200) for the lead with six top-10 finishes.

With this said, driving at Talladega has not gone all that well for Bell in the past. Through six races, he has finished better than 17th only once, with his lone top five placement coming back in 2021.

And yet, this doesn't faze us. Bell has been the best driver in NASCAR so far this season. He was also arguably at a disadvantage the past two times he drove here. He began in the pole position, and maintaining leads for an entire race on this course is borderline impossible unless you're perfect through and through.

Christopher Bell To win the 2023 Geico 500

Who's the Biggest Sleeper at the Geico 500?

We know Kevin Harvick (+3000) is going to fly under the radar at the Geico 500. We're not so sure he should.

Yes, his 21 runnings at Talladega have included just two top-five finishes. But Harvick's past six races here have featured four top-10 finishes. That's close enough to the head of the field for us to pounce on someone offering a 30-to-1 payout.

Kevin Harkvick To win the 2023 Geico 500

Official Pick to Win the Geico 500

There are many great Geico 500 picks to make. Our favorite to win is...Denny Hamlin (+1200).

This will no doubt catch plenty of people by surprise. His 12-to-1 odds put him among the top favorites yet he hasn't enjoyed the strongest start to the season. He didn't nab a top five finish until last week's NOCO 400 and has visibly struggled with some of his later-race handling.

We're willing to look past this. Hamlin's driving has steadily improved throughout the schedule, and it's not like he's been completely out of the hunt. He has three top-10 finishes this year.

More than anything, though, Hamlin has generally killed it at Talladega. Over his past seven appearances, he has five top-seven finishes, four of which saw him close in the top 5 and one of which included a first-place victory.

Denny Hamlin To win the 2023 Geico 500

Take a look at this list of the top online sportsbooks so you can decide which one works best for all of your 2023 NASCAR betting:

Meet the author

Dan Favale

Dan Favale leverages over 12 years of sports journalism expertise in his role as New York staff writer. He provides in-depth analysis across the NBA, NFL, MLB, NHL, tennis, NASCAR, college basketball, and sports betting. Dan co-hosts the popular Hardwood Knocks NBA podc...

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