NASCAR Xfinity 500 Picks: Can Anyone Dethrone Kyle Larson?

Eric Uribe
By , Updated on: Sep 4, 2022 08:00 PM
NASCAR Xfinity 500 Picks: Can Anyone Dethrone Kyle Larson?

The latest NASCAR betting odds tell us many things. Chief among them: Kyle Larson is on fire. The odds-on favorite to win the NASCAR Cup Series Championship by a mile, Larson enters the Xfinity 500 having snagged three straight first-place finishes in what can only be described as an unreal stretch.

As the Round of Eight winds down, our NASCAR Xfinity 500 picks strive to answer one question: Can anyone dethrone Kyle Larson?

Before we get down and dirty, here's a look at the latest NASCAR odds, courtesy of BetOnline:

Driver to WinBetOnline
Martin Truex Jr.+350
Kyle Larson+500
Chase Elliott+600
Denny Hamlin+650
Ryan Blaney+700
Kyle Busch+800
Joey Logano+800
Brad Keselowski+800
William Byron+1100
Christopher Bell+2000
Kevin Harvick+2500
Alex Bowman+4000
Kurt Busch+6600
Tyler Reddick+6600
Matt DiBenedetto+6600
Aric Almirola+8000
Ross Chastain+10000
Bubba Wallace+15000
Austin Dillon+15000
Daniel Suarez+15000
Chris Buescher+15000
Cole Custer+20000
Ricky Stenhouse Jr.+20000
Erik Jones+30000
Chase Briscoe+30000
Ryan Newman+30000
Michael McDowell+30000
Ryan Preece+50000
Corey LaJoie+100000
Anthony Alfredo+100000
Quin Houff+100000
Cody Ware+100000
BJ McLeod+100000
Joey Gase+100000
Josh Bilicki+100000
Justin Haley+100000
Timmy Hill+100000

Always remember to confirm these NASCAR betting lines prior to making your NASCAR picks. The odds will move at BetOnline and other top online sportsbooks prior to the opening gun of the Xfinity 500.

2021 NASCAR Xfinity 500 Predictions

  • When: Sunday, October 31
  • Time: 2 p.m. EST
  • Where: Martinsville Speedway in Martinsville, Virginia
  • Length: 500 laps (263 miles)

Can Kyle Larson Win a Fourth Straight Race?

The current run that Kyle Larson is on remains absurd. He has not only won three straight races, but he's scooped up nine total victories and 25 top-10 finishes. His lead in the NASCAR Cup standings has ballooned to over 100 points. It is absolutely wild.

Most seem to think he'll drive a more conservative race in Martinsville. Oddsmakers clearly agree. They have made Martin Truex Jr. (+350) the favorite instead. That logic is sound. Larson is already assured a spot in the NASCAR Cup Series Championship and can't do much to improve his position by going all out at the Xfinity 500.

Then again, continuing to inflate his lead in the standings has its advantages if he thinks Chase Elliott (+600), who is currently in second place, can nab two consecutive elite finishes. That scenario is certainly possible.

As far as we're concerned, Larson is never a bad bet this season. He could've slowed things down at the Hollywood Casino 400 and didn't, and he's improved a great deal at building and maintaining leads on shorter tracks like what awaits him at the Martinsville Speedway. If anything, at +500, he's laying better value than usual.

Kyle Larson To win the NASCAR Xfinity 500

Better Bet: Kyle Busch or Joey Logano

Both Joey Logano (+800) and Kyle Busch (+800) enter having secured one first-place finish this season. And with both hovering around the top 10 in the standings, they each have a ton on the line heading into the Xfinity 500.

For our money, Logano seems like the safer bet. Sure, Busch has more top-10 finishes. But Logano is right behind him, and he's tallied more impressive finishes in recent months.

Plus, when looking at their resumes on shorter tracks, the outcome tends to favor Logano.

Joey Logano To win the NASCAR Xfinity 500

Might Kevin Harvick Get His First Win of the Season?

Kevin Harvick (+2500) is a classic case of the almost guy. He is ninth in the NASCAR Cup standings yet doesn't have a single first-place finish to his name.

How'd he end up ranking so high then? He's a top-10 staple. His 23 top-10 finishes rank third on the circuit behind only Larson and Denny Hamlin (+650).

Whether the Xfinity 500 can be a breakthrough performance for Harvick is anyone's guess. Shorter tracks work in his favor, and there will be drivers at the top who will perhaps pull back. However, he will need to do a better job at finishing races than he has over the past couple of months, otherwise he's destined for nothing more than yet another top-10 finish. 

Kevin Harvick To win the NASCAR Xfinity 500

Official NASCAR Xfinity 500 Pick

In the event Kyle Larson actually does take his foot off the throttle in the final race before the championship series, Chase Elliott stands to benefit more than anyone. He hasn't won an event since early July, but he's climbed his way to second place in the overall standings by remaining close to the top of the back and rattling off top-10 finish after top-10 finish.

Over the past few weeks, he has taken some more chances down the stretch runs. The problem is, Larson or Denny Hamlin always seemed to beat him out. Neither figures to be giving it their all at the Xfinity 500. If Elliott can get off to a strong start and avoid any delays or crashes when being forced to the outside, he has a real chance at picking up his third victory of the season.

To be completely honest, the actual favorite, Martin Truex Jr., also intrigues us here. He's historically done well in Martinsville, and his all-or-nothing driving lends itself to a great finish in a race where some of the alphas may be more concerned about treading water than winning. Ultimately, though, we haven't trusted his recent mid- and late-race results to roll with him.

OSB Prediction: Chase Elliott (+600)

Chase Elliott To win the NASCAR Xfinity 500

Check out this list of the top online sportsbooks so you can decide which one to use for all your NASCAR betting:

Meet the author

Eric Uribe

Eric has been passionate about sports since he was 10 years old. He brings over 10 years of sports journalism experience to his expert coverage of sports betting. Hailing from the US, Eric leverages his diverse expertise covering sports at all levels – from high schoo...

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