2023 NOCO 400 Picks: Is Kyle Larson on the Decline?

Dan Favale
By , Updated on: Apr 12, 2023 08:00 PM
2023 NOCO 400 Picks: Is Kyle Larson on the Decline?

Christopher Bell is coming off a massive victory at NASCAR's 2023 Food City Dirt Race, a win that has oddsmakers highly valuing him entering the 2023 NOCO 400. Will he crack our list of the best bets for Sunday's race? You'll have to peruse our NOCO 400 picks to find out!

First, though, let's have a look at the overall odds to win the 2023 NOCO 400:

Driver to WinBetOnlineBetUSBovada
William Byron+600+600+600
Christopher Bell+650+650+650
Kyle Larson+650+650+650
Denny Hamlin+700+700+700
Chase Elliott+700+700+700
Martin Truex Jr.+850+850+850
Joey Logano+850+850+850
Ryan Blaney+1100+1100+1100
Kyle Busch+1200+1200+1200
Ross Chastain+1600+1600+1600
Brad Keselowski+1800+1800+1800
Alex Bowman+2000+2000+2000
Kevin Harvick+2000+2000+2000
Tyler Reddick+2800+2800+2800
Chris Buescher+3000+3000+3000
Chase Briscoe+4000+4000+4000
Ryan Preece+4000+4000+4000
Aric Almirola+4000+4000+4000
Daniel Suarez+4000+4000+4000
Bubba Wallace+5000+5000+5000
Austin Dillon+5000+5000+5000
Ty Gibbs+6000+6000+6000
Austin Cindric+6000+6000+6000
Anthony Alfredo+20000+20000+20000
Ricky Stenhouse+20000+20000+20000

As far as we can tell, this is the first time all season that Kyle Larson (+650) isn't entering as the sole favorite or co-favorite. Linemakers and bettors both appear concerned that he's snagged only one victory on the season. Does that mean you should leave him off your list of potential NOCO 400 picks? Not necessarily.

For starters, these latest online NASCAR betting odds can still change. Our odds to win the NOCO 400 are accurate entering Thursday, April 13. The 400-lap, 210-mile race won't start until Sunday, April 16, at 3 p.m. EST. This gives linemakers plenty of time to adjust the odds and account for the latest news and wagering trends.

Keeping track of any last-minute changes can be tricky. But you won't have to worry about it if you've signed up with the right odds provider. That's where our reviews of all the top online sportsbooks can help. They're jam-packed with a ton of information on all the biggest gambling spots. If you check them out, we're confident you'll have no issue identifying the best online sports betting sites in the United States for NASCAR odds and all general sports wagering.

So, which drivers are the best picks to win the NOCO 400 this Sunday? Are there any dark horses worth considering? And is it true that Larson, last year's NASCAR Cup Series favorite, might actually be on the downswing? Find the answers below.

Is Kyle Larson Among the Best NOCO 400 Picks?

Don't let anyone paint a picture of Kyle Larson's demise. Sure, he was bumped from absolute favorite or co-favorite. That's not a big deal. If anything, it is an overreaction to the past.

Larson did not have the best performance at the Food City Dirt Race. He has also never won at the Martinsville racetrack in Virginia, which is where the NOCO 400 takes place. Those two factors work against him.

They also shouldn't scare you. Larson finished second at this race last year. And as far as this year goes, Larson has led for a total of 468 laps—the most in all of NASCAR.

Kyle Larson To win the 2023 NOCO 400

Get Used to Christopher Bell Entering NASCAR Races as the Betting Favorite

No, Christopher Bell (+650) isn't technically the betting favorite at Martinsville. But he might as well be. He's working off a victory last Sunday, and he has arguably been the best driver this season. His 281 points lead the NASCAR Cup Series standings entering the NOCO 400.

Winning two consecutive races is tough. Bell has the ability to do it. His handling has been precise all season, and the Martinsville track is a relatively flat surface that's historically friendly to racers who accelerate around turns.

Christopher Bell To win the 2023 NOCO 400

Can Joey Logano Regain Momentum at the NOCO 400?

Joey Logano (+850) is already one victory away from clinching a playoff spot. You need two wins to secure one. He picked up one earlier this year.

And yet, his driving this season has been very hit or miss. Logano has now finished in last place on two occasions, which is very uncharacteristic for him. 

Can you trust him to avoid mid-race crashes and navigate around middle-of-the-pack clusters? We're not quite sure anymore. But if you do believe in his handling, he's offering great value at 8.5-to-1.

Joey Logano To win the 2023 NOCO 400

Why William Byron is Favored to Win the NOCO 400

Speaking of hit-or-miss drivers, we have William Byron (+600). Oddsmakers have pegged him as the favorite, a move that's been met with some skepticism.

Count us among the believers. Byron only has three top-10 finishes to his name this year, but two of them were checkered flag wins. On top of all that, he has routinely driven well on this Martinsville track. He won last year's NOCO 400 and finished seventh the year before.

William Byron To win the 2023 NOCO 400

Who is the Best Dark Horse NOCO 400 Pick?

This just in: Alex Bowman (+2000) is a freaking steal at 20-to-1 odds. Add him to your potential NOCO 400 picks immediately.

It doesn't seem like any of the early action is headed his way. That's typical for someone who has yet to snag a first-place finish and has only one pole position to his name.

At the same time, Bowman has hovered around the leaderboard in almost every race this season. His six top-10 finishes lead the entire NASCAR circuit. He is going to break through at some point. It's possible that breakthrough comes at the NOCO 400.

Alex Bowman To win the 2023 NOCO 400

Official 2023 NOCO 400 Prediction

Parity feels like it's at an all-time high for NASCAR. Through eight races, only one driver (Christopher Bell) has snagged multiple victories. That leads us to believe there will be yet another first-time winner at the NOCO 400.

And that, in turn, brings us to Ross Chastain (+1600).

Though Chastain hasn't been nearly as good as he was last season, he's shown signs of a return to form. He has bagged top-four finishes in his past two races and also led for a total of 16 laps during the Toyota Owners 400. Given how well he's performed in Martinsville previously—he finished fourth and fifth in two races on this track last year—this is a perfect opportunity for him to headline our NOCO 400 picks.

If you're looking for a selection with a more lucrative payout, we like Alex Bowman. Otherwise, we're Chastain all the way.

Ross Chastain To win the 2023 NOCO 400

Take a look at this list of the top online sportsbooks so you can decide which one to use for all of your NASCAR betting:

Meet the author

Dan Favale

Dan Favale leverages over 12 years of sports journalism expertise in his role as New York staff writer. He provides in-depth analysis across the NBA, NFL, MLB, NHL, tennis, NASCAR, college basketball, and sports betting. Dan co-hosts the popular Hardwood Knocks NBA podc...

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