Can Maple Leafs Close Out Lightning in Game 5?

Quinn Allen
By , Updated on: Apr 26, 2023 08:00 PM
Can Maple Leafs Close Out Lightning in Game 5?
  • What: Tampa Bay Lightning vs Toronto Maple Leafs - 2023 Stanley Cup Playoffs Game 5
  • Where: Scotiabank Arena, Toronto, Ontario
  • When: Thursday, April 27th at 7:00 PM ET

The Toronto Maple Leafs are on the brink of finally winning a Stanley Cup Playoffs series as they head into Game 5 on Thursday night with the chance to eliminate the Tampa Bay Lightning and advance to the second round. The puck is scheduled to drop at 7 PM ET. The Leafs have won three in a row in this first-round affair after getting dominated in Game 1 and currently have all the momentum. Read on for the Lightning vs Maple Leafs Game 5 picks.

Before we get into the odds and prediction for Thursday's critical matchup, make sure to check out our online sportsbook reviews, and the top NHL betting sites.

Lightning vs Maple Leafs Odds

Tampa Bay Lightning+137+130+135
Toronto Maple Leafs-152-150-155

Toronto is the clear favorite in this potential series-clincher, sitting at -152 odds for an implied win probability of 60.32%. Tampa Bay comes back at +137. The total is set at 6.5 and has been comfortably hit in every single game so far in the series.


Toronto was booed off the ice in Game 1 after losing 7-3 at Scotiabank Arena. Needless to say, Sheldon Keefe's squad took that personally. They responded with a huge 7-3 win in Game 2 before taking both games on the road in overtime. First, the Leafs made a late comeback in Game 3. But it was Game 4 where Toronto really showed guts.

Facing a 4-1 deficit in the second period, the Maple Leafs never gave in and proceeded to expose Lightning netminder Andrei Vasilevskiy, who is severely struggling in the postseason, despite being one of the best goaltenders in the entire NHL, if not the best. Auston Mathews scored twice in the third to make it a one-goal game before Morgan Reilly tied it to force the extra period. Alex Kerfoot then played hero in OT, scoring on the powerplay to put Toronto in a prime position heading back home.

The Lightning is one of the most experienced and successful teams in these playoffs. I mean, we're talking about back-to-back Stanley Cups and another appearance in the Finals last year before losing to the Colorado Avalanche. But, all that extra hockey may be catching up to them.

Tampa had every opportunity to tie up this series Monday but couldn't hold onto a huge lead, letting Toronto claw their way back into the contest. Unfortunately, the play of Vasilevskiy is proving to be a big problem for the team in this first round. Yes, their defense isn't exactly shining, but the Russian is allowing more than four goals per night. Not good enough.

Offensively, Alex Killorn scored twice in the second, while Steven Stamkos and Mikhail Sergachev also found the back of the net.

Jon Cooper's group has won 11 of their last 12 series across the last three postseasons, but they could be looking at another loss. While going on the road is difficult though, the Lightning are resilient. There would be nothing better than silencing the Leafs faithful and making the series a little bit more interesting.

Lightning vs Maple Leafs Game 5 Picks

I truly don't believe the Lightning are going to lose four in a row. This team is too good. I expect them to win this one and force a Game 6.

Tampa Bay Lightning Moneyline Vs Toronto Maple Leafs

See below the top sportsbooks where you can wager online and choose the best one for you:

Meet the author

Quinn Allen

Quinn Allen leverages his broadcast journalism degree and passion for sports in his betting previews and analysis. Based in Kelowna, Canada, he has emerged as an expert voice with picks featured on OSB, MTS, SBD, and as a ClutchPoints editor. With a lifelong fandom of...

Online Sports Betting may receive compensation if you sign up through our links. Rest assured, we avoid biases and provide honest opinions on sportsbooks. Read more here.